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# Winning chance

Wed 23 Jan, 2013 11:29 am
I wanted to use Excel to calculate my Urban Rivals card chance of winning. The rule in this game is simple and requires strategy but it can be calculated. I just don't know how. Each player has four cards. Each cards has a power level. Each player can use 12 pillz for the entire 4 rounds. Each pillz used in Each roud is multiplied by the power level of the card chosen and the result is the attack power. Whichever card has the highest attack power wins. Now, I wanted to know the probability rate of winning of each my cards compare to his cards and available pillz. Let's say we were in the third round and Each of us got 2 cards left. I have 8 pillz and he got 6 pillz. one of my card got 4 power and the other got 6 power level. My opponent got 8 and 3 power levels. Now, what is the winning chance with my power level 4 card?
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markr

1
Wed 23 Jan, 2013 01:39 pm
@ghodhereek,
Questions:
1) Do you have to use at least one pill per card, or can you use 8 with one card and 0 with the other?
2) Do you want to know the probability if both sides play randomly?
3) Or are you looking for a strategy that yields the highest probability for winning with your level 4 card, and you're wondering what probability is associated with that strategy?
4) Or are you looking for a strategy that yields the highest score (in terms of wins with the remaining cards), and given that strategy, you want to know the probability of the level 4 card winning?
5) Or are you looking for something else?

Assuming 3 or 4, are you assuming that the opponent optimizes his strategy? If so, what is the opponent's goal? Maximize wins with the remaining cards?

You need to more specific with your statement of the problem.
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markr

1
Wed 23 Jan, 2013 02:48 pm
@ghodhereek,
After reading a description of the game at wikipedia, I found out that one player plays first each round, and the players alternate who goes first each round. In the example you gave, you can win with both cards 100% of the time if your opponent goes first in the third round. Otherwise, the best you can manage is a split, and you can't force your victory to come on the level 4 card.
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