Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 09:27 pm
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/no_global_warming_for_15_years/

Quote:

Apr 02, 2012
No Global Warming For 15 Years
New UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not warmed in the past 15 years.

Analysis by the GWPF of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years - a timescale that challenges current models of global warming.......
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Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 09:37 pm
Well, that's a relief.

You can read the "About Us" section of the web site Gunga Dim has linked by clicking here. It's pretty hilarious--you know, fair and balanced?
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 09:45 pm
I plan to wear a parka all summer long.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 10:17 pm
You were wrong the last time you posted this, Gunga, and you're still wrong. the reason denialists pick 1998 as their starting year is because that year was the strongest el Nino year on record. El Nino, for those who don't know, which apparently includes gunga, is a massive upwelling of warm water from deep in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru. It is large enough to affect the weather in something like a third of the world, and it affects the global average temperature. The reason it doesn't affect climate are
A. It's transitory. It only lasts a year or so.
B. It is part of an irregular cycle which also includes la Ninas, which are massive cold upwellings, which also occur every few years.
C. It's a redistibution of heat already in the system. It doesn't add, or subtract anything new. It just redistributes where it is.
It's not part of an ongoing trend.

Denialists pick 1998 because it was a record breaking year because of the strong el Nino (which was laid on top of the steadily rising world temperature (which they y neglect to mention). It has however been beaten temperature-wise by two years this millenium, 2005 and 2010, the former an el Nino year, the latter not. They're statistically tied for hottest year on record. 1998 is now third.

Further, it's statistically and scientifically invalid to use just one year as the basis for determining temperature change, because as we all know there are warm years and cooler years, years with a lot of rain or snow and other with none. Climate looks at changes (or stabilities) over time, over years and decades. And the average temperature has in fact been rising since 1998. It's usually computed over a rolling average, either of 3 years or 5 years, to smooth out variation in individual years and look at the trend. And in fact the average temperature in 2011 is higher than in 1998. Your methodology is suspect, gunga, and your "facts" are just plain wrong.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 10:19 pm
@gungasnake,
From the original website:
Quote:
"Updates have resulted in some changes to individual years in the nominal global mean temperature record, but have not changed the overall warming signal."


And according to that database, quoted in gunga's article,2010 has overtaken 1998 to now be the warmest year on record, followed in second place by 2005 as 1998 is pushed into third place ...
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 10:33 pm
If you're as lame at interpreting the written word as gunga seems to be. Here's an animated graphic of temperatures worldwide from the 1880s to 2011. Bluer is cooler, orangeto-deep-red is hotter. If you're quick, you can stop it at individual years. The difference between 1880 and 1998 is striking, but the difference between 1998 and today is more striking
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20120119/
Sorry, gunga, you're wrong again.
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2012 10:34 pm
high five, Walter.
0 Replies
 
gungasnake
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 08:47 am
@Walter Hinteler,

Quote:
From the original website:
Quote:
"Updates have resulted in some changes to individual years in the nominal global mean temperature record, but have not changed the overall warming signal."


This is the original website:

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/no_global_warming_for_15_years/

Your quote isn't on it. The word "updates" is not on it. The term "individual years" is not on it.

You are full of ****.
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 08:59 am
I'd say the original website would be the HADCRUT website, gunga, not your cite with the specious analysis. They were the source of the data. Better give yourself an enema, you're obviously stopped up.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 09:13 am
Quote:
It's already been a very record-breaking hot year
Loading... Share No Thanks Must Read?Thank YouYes 12 Email Story Print By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP
8 hours ago


FILE - In this March 25, 2012, file photo a couple enjoy a sunny afternoon a...
WASHINGTON — It's been so warm in the United States this year, especially in March, that national records weren't just broken, they were deep-fried.

Temperatures in the lower 48 states were 8.6 degrees above normal for March and 6 degrees higher than average for the first three months of the year, according to calculations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That far exceeds the old records.

The magnitude of how unusual the year has been in the U.S. has alarmed some meteorologists who have warned about global warming. One climate scientist said it's the weather equivalent of a baseball player on steroids, with old records obliterated.

"Everybody has this uneasy feeling. This is weird. This is not good," said Jerry Meehl, a climate scientist who specializes in extreme weather at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "It's a guilty pleasure. You're out enjoying this nice March weather, but you know it's not a good thing."

It's not just March.

"It's been ongoing for several months," said Jake Crouch, a climate scientist at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Ashville, N.C.

Meteorologists say an unusual confluence of several weather patterns, including La Nina, was the direct cause of the warm start to 2012. While individual events can't be blamed on global warming, Couch said this is like the extremes that are supposed to get more frequent because of manmade climate change from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil.

It's important to note that this unusual winter heat is mostly a North America phenomenon. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has been cold, said NOAA meteorologist Martin Hoerling.

The first quarter of 2012 broke the January-March record by 1.4 degrees. Usually records are broken by just one- or two-tenths of a degree. U.S. temperature records date to 1895.

The atypical heat goes back even further. The U.S. winter of 2010-2011 was slightly cooler than normal and one of the snowiest in recent years, but after that things started heating up. The summer of 2011 was the second warmest summer on record.

The winter that just ended, which in some places was called the year without winter, was the fourth warmest on record. Since last April, it's been the hottest 12-month stretch on record, Crouch said.

But the month where the warmth turned especially weird was March.

Normally, March averages 42.5 degrees across the country. This year, the average was 51.1, which is closer to the average for April. Only one other time — in January 2006 — was the country as a whole that much hotter than normal for an entire month.

The "icebox of America," International Falls, Minn., saw temperatures in the 70s for five days in March, and there were only three days of below zero temperatures all month.

In March, at least 7,775 weather stations across the nation broke daily high temperature records and another 7,517 broke records for night-time heat. Combined, that's more high temperature records broken in one month than ever before, Crouch said.

"When you look at what's happened in March this year, it's beyond unbelievable," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver.

NOAA climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi compared the increase in weather extremes to baseball players on steroids: You can't say an individual homer is because of steroids, but they are hit more often and the long-held records for home runs fall.

They seem to be falling far more often because of global warming, said NASA top climate scientist James Hansen. In a paper he submitted to the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and posted on a physics research archive, Hansen shows that heat extremes aren't just increasing but happening far more often than scientists thought.

What used to be a 1-in-400 hot temperature record is now a 1 in 10 occurrence, essentially 40 times more likely, said Hansen. The warmth in March is an ideal illustration of this, said Hansen, who also has become an activist in fighting fossil fuels.

Weaver, who reviewed the Hansen paper, called it "one of the most stunning examples of evidence of global warming."

___

Online:

National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

James Hansen's study on climate extremes: http://bit.ly/HQzxeq

___

Seth Borenstein be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 09:19 am
@gungasnake,
Quote:
retrospectively revised

<snork>
0 Replies
 
gungasnake
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 09:24 am
There is no way to determine an "original website" from the info I posted.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 09:43 am
really? Are your research skills so limited you can't find the original data when your cite says it's HADCRUT?
0 Replies
 
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 02:54 pm
The "no warming for past 15 years statement arises simply from the graph presented on the Hadcrut site:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HadCRUT4star700.jpg

That's what the graph shows, it ain't complicated.

Junkscience's take (back to hiding the decline...):

http://junkscience.com/2012/03/21/icecap-crus-new-hadcrut4-hiding-the-decline-yet-again/

0 Replies
 
raprap
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2012 03:16 pm
@MontereyJack,
Wuithout the data mining
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20120119/616910main_gisstemp_2011_graph_lrg[1].jpg
gungasnake
 
  0  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2012 08:12 am
@raprap,
Your graph, with or without "data mining(TM), whatever that's supposed to mean, shows the same basic thing which everybody who's seen these numbers is saying i.e. that there hasn't been any warming over the last 15 years.
MontereyJack
 
  0  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2012 10:06 am
Only if you can't tell which end is up.
0 Replies
 
raprap
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2012 11:49 am
@gungasnake,
No Gaunga, the data that you presented that is restricted to the last 15 years is obviously data mined.

Rap
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2012 01:10 pm
Great science frauds prior to "global warming/climate change"

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y25/mluphoup/frauds.jpg
0 Replies
 
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2012 02:04 pm
@raprap,
I'll be perfectly honest with you, I've heard the term 'quote mining' previously but I've never heard the term 'data mining' prior to now. Is it possible to say whatever you're trying to say in plain English?
 

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