Unpopular Presidencies

In regard to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), what't the general opinion of his response to Trump's tariff threats in regard to immigration control?

What can I say, c.i.?
I'm of Cuban ancestry. My parents, grandparents, and all my mother's family are or were Cuban (my dad's family moved to Mexico around 1920; my mom in 1948). So of course I love Cuban people (most of them, anyway).

People can be happy with a bad government, I learned that. But a bad government usually conspires against happiness. It happened there. It also conspired against some basic human values and decency.

Yeah, and in some strange ways, to go to Cuba is also a trip to the 50s.
Think about a hotel room at El Nacional or other traditional hotel. The furniture looks like new, but it's vintage from that time, repaired over and over.

In terms of AMLO's approval ratings, on daily polls it has fallen about 4 points, to 60% yesterday.

But in other, more frightening terms, the AMLOve craze has given way to a sharp move in opinion polls towards immigrants. A chunk of Mexicans swiftly moved from a friendly attitude towards "our Central American brethren" to a more "trumpian" point of view.
3 months ago, 32% was against letting the Central Americans freely pass through on their way to our Northern border; now it's 58%.

The AMLOvers are capable of changing their minds twice a day if their leader does. Sometimes I think there are people who would applaud if AMLO declared Swedish our national language.

And, people, this Bukele guy is really good at Twitter.

Today he met AMLO. When they raised each other hands, AMLO accidentally hit him in the head.

Bekele tweeted:
"AMLO rules with an iron fist", and a picture when he's knocking Bukele

Then he replied to himself in another tweet:
"This is what I get for calling him 'cotton head' "

And finally:
"To tell the truth, AMLO felt the power of my beard in his fist"

My travel buddy and I traveled to Cuba enough times to have seen most of the country from Pinar del Rio to Baracoa, and most of the large cities in the north and south of the country. It was a good thing that my travel buddy spoke fluent Spanish, because we were able to take public transportation and stay at B&B's. He's Canadian, but now lives in Loreto, Mexico. He and I have traveled all over Europe, South America and Asia, because my wife hates travel. I still have good memories of Cuba, and miss my friends there. Unfortunately, my wife now restricts my travel to the US and Canada. On our last trip, I took a camera that produces a picture right away. I remember a family who dressed up to have their photo taken, a young couple with their son. I don't even know what happened to that photo-maker. My favorites places in Havana; La Guarida paladar, Nacional Hotel, Parque Central Hotel, Smokey Joe's restaurant and bar, the art museums, Partagas cigar factory, Capitolio, and the many bars and cigar rooms. I brought back two Partagas D4 cigars, and shared one with my younger son. He's now gone, but I was able to take him on a trip to China that he really enjoyed. He complained for several days after our visit to the Great Wall about his aching leg; he climbed up to the top.

New polls, from September 2019 (most of them, anyway)

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) 80% (+9 since last measurement)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico) 64% (=)
Danilo Medina (Dominican Rep.) 54% ( -8)
Martin Vizcarra (Perú)* 52% (+18)
Donald Trump (USA) 43% (-1)
Evo Morales (Bolivia) 35% (-2)
Justin Trudeau (Canada) 33% (+2)
Mauricio Macri (Argentina) 33% (+5)
Juan Orlando Hernández (Honduras) 33% (+6)
Sebastián Piñera (Chile) 32% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) 29% (-3)
Iván Duque (Colombia) 29% (-3)
Mario Abdo Benítez (Paraguay) 30% (last poll numbers; march 2019)
Tabaré Vázquez (Uruguay) 28% (=)
Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) 24% (-5)
Lenin Moreno (Ecuador)** 22% (-2)
Carlos Alvarado (Costa Rica)21% (-3)
Juan Carlos Varela (Panamá) 22% (+2)
Jimmy Morales (Guatemala) 19% (-2, outgoing)
Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) 13% (-2)

*In October, Peru's Vizcarra's popularity grew up to 79%, according to Ipsos, after he disolved Congress (refused to be hostage to Fujimoristas). We usually follow polls by Datum.
**And Ecuador's Lenin Moreno's popularity most probably fell even further, because of heavy unrest due to the hike on gasoline prices.

More interesting fact about Donald Trump. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/02/13/siena-presidential-ranking-survey/2857075002/

These are the pre-coronavirus emergency standings.
We'll see how they change when it's over

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) 81% (+1 since last measurement)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico) 58% (-6)
Alberto Fernández (Argentina) 57% (new)
Alejandro Giammattei (Guatemala) 56% (new)
Martin Vizcarra (Perú) 55% (+3)
Danilo Medina (Dominican Rep.) 52% ( -2)
Justin Trudeau (Canada) 50% (+17)
Laurentino Cortizo (Panama) 47% (new)
Donald Trump (USA) 45% (+2)
Jeannine Añez (Bolivia) 43% (new)
Tabaré Vázquez (Uruguay) 37% (+9, outgoing)
Juan Orlando Hernández (Honduras) 33% (=)
Mario Abdo Benítez (Paraguay) 31% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) 30% (+1)
Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) 27% (+3)
Iván Duque (Colombia) 24% (-5)
Carlos Alvarado (Costa Rica)22% (+1)
Lenin Moreno (Ecuador) 18% (-4)
Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) 13% (=)
Sebastián Piñera (Chile) 10% (-22)

I fear our PM will go up.

He slumped with his appallingly inadequate response to our bushfires.

He began the covid response nearly as badly as Trump, but seems to have been whipped into shape to some extent.

A pandemic year has passed.
Let’s see the changes:



Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) 84% (+3 since last measurement)
Luis Abinader (Dominican Republic) 77% (new)
Luis Lacalle (Uruguay) 64% (new)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico) 58% (=)
Luis Arce (Bolivia) 55% (new)
Joe Biden (USA) 53% (new)
Justin Trudeau (Canada) 50% (=)
Mario Abdo (Paraguay) 50% (+ 19)
Iván Duque (Colombia) 48% (+24)
Juan Orlando Hernánde 45% (+12)
Francisco Sagasti (Perú) 38% (new)
Alberto Fernández (Argentina) 38% (-19)
Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) 37% (+10)
Laurentino Cortizo 36% (-11)
Jair Bolsonaro 31% (+1)
Alejandro Giammattei (Guatemala) 27% (-29)
Sebastián Piñera 24% (+14)
Carlos Alvarado (Costa Rica) 24% (+2)
Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) 14% (+1)
Lenin Moreno (Ecuador) 8% (-10)

Cortizo, Panama
Bolsonaro, Brazil
Piñera, Chile


Abinader, Lacalle, Arce and Biden all defeated the incumbent party.
Sagasti was elected by the Peruvian Congress after it deposed president Vizcarra.

Do you think the ratings are reasonable?

They’re never reasonable, but they’re accurate, I think.

Interesting, to notice that the political juncture was not always the coronavirus.
For instance, Chile’s Piñera was dealing with excessive use of the force against violent protests, a year ago. This subsided with the coronavirus outbrake, helping him.

And also, polarizing presidents tend to have a somewhat stable following, regardless of all else.

Yes. Look at Trump, re polarising presidents having stable followings!

Or Bolsonaro, López Obrador and Maduro, in Latin America.

Tis a puzzlement

Not really, if the President is practically forcing every one to take sides, on an every day basis.

In Mexico, you cannot even be lukewarm in support or criticism. You belomg to “Central Korea”, accordong to the others.

The country lives in a rethorical civil war.

Sounds like the US, actually

It’s quite terrifying to me

Here we go again:

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) 71% (-13 since last measurement)
Luis Abinader (Dominican Republic) 67% (-10)
Guillermo Lasso (Ecuador) 64% (new)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico) 64% (+6)
Luis Lacalle (Uruguay) 52% (-12)
Joe Biden (USA) 42% (-9)
Pedro Castillo (Perú) 42% (new)
Juan Orlando Hernández (Honduras) 42% (-3)
Justin Trudeau (Canada) 41% (-9)
Laurentino Cortizo (Panama) 31% (-5)
Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) 29% (-8)
Alberto Fernández (Argentina) 27% (-11)
Luis Arce (Bolivia) 26% (-29)
Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) 25% (+9)
Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) 22% (-9)
Sebastián Piñera (Chile) 22% (-2)
Alejandro Giammattei (Guatemala) 21% (-6)
Iván Duque (Colombia) 20% (-28)
Mario Abdo (Paraguay) 18% (-32)
Carlos Alvarado (Costa Rica) 17% (-7)

Bukele still wildly popular (I follow him on twitter but I don't get the nuances).

What did Maduro do to improve 9%?

What did Abdo do to drop 32% (I thought he'd been on the nose for a couple of years)

And finally what's Obrador getting right?