8.8 earthquake hits Japan

@High Seas,

You are not a medical professional , Ive heard several mediacl doctors in rad medicine who said that prophylaxis of low dose KELP KI is not inadviseable.
PS, about the Jet stream, It ws the Jaqpanese who lauched baloon bombs in WWII and these crossed from their home island to Calif.

A dismissive attitude about Cs137 is what Id expect from a nuke industry spokesperson. The "expectation" is what it is, Its not based upon a "best case or worst case hopeful scenario". We hope for the best but dont dismiss the worst. I am uite dsimayed at the incompetence of these nuke plant oertors,They didnt have any stand by duplicate equipment. They are, IMHO, doing exactly what BP was doing for the first several weeks of the oil spill, They seem to be clueless. Cesium is waay more volatile than plutonium or U and the half life IS NOT short, as George intimated.
Hes thinking H3 and Im talking Cs137

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@farmerman,

There's absolutely no way George confuses cesium with H3. Or I, for that matter. Until you state exactly how much cesium you're talking about and where measured (location / altitude) then what he and I have written here is exactly accurate. Nor am I a nuclear industry spokesman, for the record.

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Oh yes, sweet clarity. Wasn't that a Shirley McLaine movie...circa 1969?

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@High Seas,

I hve only been reading the same science news reporting. George said unequivocally thatall the radionuclides that were emanating from the steam were "short lived" (I assumed he was talking H3). However, the Cs137 is different, itwas one of the ones of most concern from Chernobyl at the peak of its contaminant migration. Its been reported here too, that bodes as an indicator of a potential problem.
I always suspwect when someone gives me a "relqax" statem,ent that comes out of a blue sky. Youre not a physician and neither am I, so I would not take "relax" from anyone on this board until ashown otherwise.

Im a supporter of gas drilling in Pa, but Im also a realistic critic of how the drilling is going so badly right now.
We shouldnt be predicting best or worst cases here either, we should be prepared for consequences .
In 3 mi island, the governor evacuated a rather large circle of population. It wasnt necessary as it turned out, but there were some tense moments and noone denies that this was a prudent action at the time.

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@farmerman,

There's already been measurable trace of radiation that was recorded by UC Berkeley from Japan.

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This article seems fairly balanced on the issue:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/radiation-contamination-risk-growing-as-japan-nuclear-crisis-deepens-q-a.html

Here's an excerpt of what they say specifically about the cesium-137:

Quote:

Q: How much of that has been released, and what are the effects of that?

A: The uranium fuel rods inside each reactor are still expected to be largely intact. If the reactors are cooled down over time, the rods will be disposed off as radioactive waste. The spent rods, which were usually stored in a pool near reactor number, are radioactive -- or hot -- and will be leaking radiation until they are fully submerged with cool, distilled water and return to a normal temperature.

At least one of the pools of spent fuel rods is completely dry and out of control.

Trace amounts of Cesium-137 and Iodine-131 were found in the air around the plant starting March 12, around 1:30 p.m. local time. The two isotopes are produced when the fuel rods inside the reactors overheat and react with their casings. Both are radioactive and can cause health damage. Iodine has a half-life, or reduces in mass and thus radioactivity, every eight days -- within two months, it leaves no trace behind. It can be countered with doses of potassium iodide tablets, but only within 24 hours of exposure. It is known to cause thyroid cancer.

Cesium has a longer half-life of about 300 years. External exposure to large amounts of Cs-137 can cause burns, acute radiation sickness and even death. Exposure to Cs-137 can increase the risk for cancer because of exposure to high-energy gamma radiation. Internal exposure to Cs-137, through ingestion or inhalation, allows the radioactive material to be distributed in the soft tissues, especially muscle tissue, exposing these tissues to the beta particles and gamma radiation and increasing cancer risk.

Q: How much of this material is out there?

A: So far, very small amounts of cesium and iodine are reported to have been released, mostly in a process when engineers are venting pressurized gases out from near the reactors core, to chambers outside it, where leaks and explosions have spread it out.

How much Cesium or Iodine remains inside the nuclear reactors is the big unknown -- the fuel rods have been partially submerged several times, and the temperatures have risen each time. If engineers can get control of the reactors, and finish the cooling process, then this radioactive material should be entombed within the reactor itself.

If the cooling process fails for any reason, and the containment chambers are sufficiently damaged, this material could leak out. This is the worst case scenario.

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@farmerman,

Here's what I wrote;

georgeob1" wrote:

Most of the dispersed radiation is from gases that have short half lives: once the leaks are contained it will dissipate quickly.

That statement is true in every respect.

farmerman wrote:

Naaah, I dont consider Cesium 137 as a "short lived nuclide". And its volatile besides. Ive seen reports of Cs in the atmosphere and that tells us that at least some of the Zr cladding has been compromised

Caesium is indeed a major constituent of fission products and with a half life of around 30 years it is not short lived. However, it won't constitute a significant portion of the released radiation as long as the reactor containment structures remain intact. In the case of Fukushima, the only apparent source of it is the exposed spent fuel in the storage compartment - and not that in the damaged reactor cores. Caesium is at best only a very small contributor to the observed radiation in the area around the reactors - precisely as I wrote.

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@farmerman,

There's not a single rad medic advising anyone in the US mainland to ingest potassium iodide tablets because of radiation plumes from Daiichi. Not one. If by some miracle you locate such a person link his advice here. Anyway since you know geology can you please explain the following puzzling phenomenon:

http://www.myvisitingcard.com/wp-content/uploads/Tsunami-Hits-Japan-After-8.9-Megaquake.jpg

Why was the tsunami water so incredibly pitch-black?

I've flown over the Japanese beaches at low tide many times and always saw white sand. After the earthquake the ocean seems to have retreated far beyond its limit with tides, but did it form deep eddies that roiled with volcanic ash? Is that what's covering Japan's continental shelf? Thanks.

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@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

George said unequivocally thatall the radionuclides that were emanating from the steam were "short lived"

Read his exact words, re-posted on this page: "most" isn't "all". Anyway, if you have a moment to explain the blackness of the wave I'd appreciate it.

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@High Seas,

Several reports described the tsunami scouring the seabeds - stirring up the mud. It's mud - same as was seen in Indonesian tsunami.

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@High Seas,

Yes. Mud.

Don't forget this is not a wave in the normal sense of the word.
Witnesses attested to the sea suddenly retreating a long, long way (the same thing was reported just before the Indonesian tsunami struck, of course) before coming in with great speed and force. The forces involved are quite enough to scour the sea bed, the beaches, and finally the land surface. The water contains all of the particles and debris it passes over, churned up in a devilish brew.

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@McTag,

Witnesses to the 1946 Hawaii tsunami reported hearing boulders gnashing around on the sea floor .

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@High Seas,

I have heard from several "radiohead" physicians (epidemiologiosts and nuke specialists) whove stated that a prophylaxis dosage of Kelp KI is always a good idea. Noone is talking about "raiding " the national stockpile of KI tablets. . Overdosage of KI has its own problems but natural prophylaxis at vitamin dosage is a good idea.
Ive never trusted the nuclear power "experts". I spent too many years requiring the redo of site safety plans because some wag from DOE had "assured us" that the rad dosages aout at Jackass flat, Pantex, Rocky Flat, Y12, and Canonsburg were all within "acceptable levels".

Sorry, Im a long time skeptic. I support nuke power but I dont believe most of what comes out of the spokespeoples mouths as anything other than "circling the wagons"

THe Present problem is still, imho, an full on example of incompetence covered by beurocratic CYA.

----------------------------------------------
As far as the black mud,, what McTag and RAgman said , pretty much sums it up.

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@High Seas,

Quote:

re-posted on this page: "most" isn't "all".

So in effect, he meant. ALL radionuclides weve measured are shortlived except those that arent. I see.

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@farmerman,

Since it's someone else's post, and he has re-posted it for you to see that he said "most" and not "all" there's no more to be said on that subject. Still I'd like to know if anyone analyzes the mud (?) roiling up with the tsunami waves to find out the exact bathygraphic location of the seabed it came from.

Separately: the potassium iodide discussed on the thread concerned that taken by residents of the US mainland, not those in the vicinity of Fukushima Daiichi - they have good reason for taking it, but we, 5,000 miles away, do not. Even that laughable Bloomberg article someone posted here (cesium's half life is 300 (three hundred) years? Your Nobel prize is in the mail!) manages to get the correct half life for iodine 131. You see that half life is about as long as the jet stream takes to cross the Pacific, so we would get ample warning, if it came to that. That's simple arithmetic, not nuclear medicine.

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@McTag,

Living creatures (other than us) must sense whatever acoustic waves precede tsunamis - all land animals are observed heading for higher ground minutes, sometimes hours, before the waves start arriving; even jellyfish leave coastal waters and head for the open ocean. No idea how they figure it out.

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@farmerman,

At vitamin dosage iodine is included in all the 1-a-day supplements, so we agree they're a good idea to take preventively. I also agree with you on the nuclear industry's shoddy practices - the Japanese are particularly at fault in that regard, but this is no time to bash them over the head with their past failings.

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@High Seas,

One researcher claims to be able to predict earthquakes by numbering the missing animals, strays, lost pets etc in an area . They seem to sense what is coming and go elsewhere, up to days before hand .

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@Ionus,

Makes sense - that guy probably has a better input dataset than most mathematical modelers in the earthquake and tsunami prediction business. This latest round of anti-nuclear-power panic is beyond absurd. Some of it is based on outright false information spread by people who don't know what they're talking about - like the author of the Bloomberg article on this page - but some of it originates with people who do know. Chancellor Merkel (a particle physicist) does, but she had to back off her plans for political reasons. The same - and worse - is happening elsewhere. There's vast ignorance and panic out there.

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@High Seas,

Unfortunately pwerception is what drives many public projects. Rather than wringing hands and calling na,mes, the nuke industry must clean this one with minimal health effect . We aways seem to be in new waters every time an event occurs.

The siting of these p[lants were abysmal, the ALgermissen numbers under the old system rank this area as a category 2 site and the new means rank it as a 4. (That was before the quake and wave). The data being shown on line evidences several units of "turbidites" which are sediments that show evidence of roiling and severe hydraulics. That alone should have called attention to this site. APparently it was an accident waiting to happen for 40 years.

The irresponsibility of this kind of design **** that goes on for some reason of national pride is amazing. Had this been in the US, they probabbly wouldnt have been able to site the plant due to the siting compacts of the 1970's.

If I were on a geotech team that was involved in the siting process, I would have blown a whistle (probably would have lost a job too).This site has had a history of severe wave action, seimicity, and actual ground motion.

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8.8 earthquake hits Japan

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