Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

2:15pm GMT: Opposition members in Uganda are threatening Egypt-style protests if next Friday's presidential election is rigged so that Yoweri Museveni can extend his 25-year grip on power, AP reports. Museveni is widely expected to win another term in office, and the Ugandan military and police would probably crush any attempted revolt.

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The way I see it is that it was an Army coup from the start. It was the Army's protection and encouragement of the protesters which gave them the confidence to turn out in such numbers and serve as the instrument.

The new leader is as much implicated in the misdeeds of the previous regime as Mr Mubarak was. The Police have been marginalised and the best they can expect is being made traffic wardens and the worst is being hunted down in revenge attacks.

If the Army in the Yemen, and other places, has confidence in the leadership I don't think anything like this will happen there.

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3:53pm GMT: Jack Shenker has sent through the text of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces' statement about their role in the transition of power:

Some key points:

•The current government, and governors shall continue as a caretaker administration until a new government is formed.

•The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces aspires to guaranteeing a peaceful transition of authority within a free and democratic system that allows for the assumption of authority by a civilian and elected authority to govern the country and the build of a democratic and free state.

•The Arab Republic of Egypt is committed to all regional and international obligations and treaties.

•The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces calls on the great people to cooperate with their siblings and children in the civilian police forces, for affection and cooperation must exist between everyone, and it calls on the civilian police forces must be committed to their slogan "the police serve the people".

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4:00 pm GMT: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has released a curious statement about its intention during and after a transition of power. The group announced that it will not compete in any presidential elections or seek to gain a majority in parliament.

"The Muslim Brotherhood ... are not seeking personal gains, so they announce they will not run for the presidency and will not seek to get a majority in the parliament and that they consider themselves servants of these decent people. We support and value the sound direction that the Higher Military Council is taking on the way to transfer power peacefully to create a civilian government in line with the will of the people."

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@spendius,

I don't think they initiated it, but I think they saw opportunity from the start.

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From Al Jazeera

Algerian security forces and pro-democracy protesters are clashing, as demonstrations got underway in the capital Algiers on Saturday.

At least 2,000 protestors were able to overcome a security cordon enforced around the capital's May First Square, joining other demonstrators calling for reform.

Earlier, thousands of police in riot gear were in position to stop the demonstrations that could mimic the uprising which forced out Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Security forces have closed all entrances to the capital and already arrested hundreds of protesters, sources told Al Jazeera.

At the scene of the protests, blogger and activist, Elias Filali, said human right's activists and syndicate members were among those arrested.

“I’m right in the middle of the march,” he told Al Jazeera. “People are being arrested and are heavily guarded by the police.”

Officials banned Saturday's opposition march, but protesters were determined to see it through.

Peaceful protests

Filali said the demonstrators were determined to remain peaceful, but he added that the police "want the crowd to go violent and then get them portrayed as a violent crowd". More

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@JPB,

I think they did initiate it. Results as good as that don't happen spontaneously.

And Field Marshal Tantawi is 75. Which suggests a Neguib scenario.

Quote:

In 1949, Naguib secretly joined the Free Officers movement, and a year later he was promoted to the rank of Major-General. The general is considered one of Egypt's few heroes from the war in Palestine and enjoyed wide respect in the country. The Free Officers, led by Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser were young members of the military – all under thirty-five and all from peasant or lower middle-class backgrounds. Nasser's goal was to overthrow King Farouk and end the British domination of Egypt and Sudan. Knowing that officers of such youth would not be taken seriously, he asked General Naguib to assume leadership of the movement.

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@spendius,

Probably true, and also what I saw.

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@spendius,

spendi, Good post; it provides the background that we all once lived through, but forgot.

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Hosni Mubarak is evidently worth over $40 B. Provided he brought his wealth with him, I am in favor of South Carolina (my state) over him a safe haven. This may, of course, solve the state's serious financial problems.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Just-How-Rich-Is-Hosni-Mubarak-6918

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This is a truly lovely quote:

Quote:

"The Muslim Brotherhood ... are not seeking personal gains, so they announce they will not run for the presidency and will not seek to get a majority in the parliament and that they consider themselves servants of these decent people. We support and value the sound direction that the Higher Military Council is taking on the way to transfer power peacefully to create a civilian government in line with the will of the people."

It is very hard for me to believe that some group isn't positioning to fill the power vacuum. I hope this statement is true of the "brotherhood."

I DO think it's time to stop referring to the military as some monolithic single-minded amalgam of person - and find and call the name of the guy calling the shots. Why doesn't the media pursue that?

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@Lash,

Good q, but media seems to miss out on important issues when it doesn't stem from somebody else.

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Al Jazeera live blog on Algeria

4:38pm GMT+1: The AP reports that according to the Algerian League for the Defense of Human Rights, 400 people have been arrested in today's protests.

Ali Yahia Abdenour, who heads the group, says that 28,000 security forces have been deployed in Algiers.

2:40pm GMT=1: Twitter is buzzing with reports of the role of women in today's protests in Algiers, with some saying that police are tageting and arresting women. There are several photos of female protesters being hauled off by police on the wires.

14:10pm GMT+1: Retuers news agency reports that Algerian police have blocked the centre of the capital city of Algiers, preventing anti-government protesters from joining the small groups of protesters in May 1 Square for a planned march through the city. Those already in the square have been "hemmed in". We've had other reports, though, of protesters breaking police lines and entering the square.

Arrests have been made, though the numbers have not yet been confirmed - one spokeman for the RCD opposition party says 1,000 demonstrators have been arrested while a spokesman for the interior ministry says 14 people were "detained and immediately released".

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Al Jazeera live blog on Egypt

3:12am GMT+2: Amr Moussa (to CNN) - when asked if he would run for president - said: "This is not a question to decide today".

2:40am GMT+2: Headlines on the front page of Al Ahram, Egypt's largest - state-owned - newspaper from before and after the resignation of Mubarak. Above: "Millions out in support of Mubarak" - under: "The people overthrow the regime"

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/sites/default/files/imagecache/FeaturedImagePost/images/Al%20Ahram.jpg

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@JTT,

Depends on wether you live in Egypt or somewhere else.

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9:01am GMT+2: The military has began to remove the barricades around Tahrir Square.

10:30am GMT+2: James Bays, Al Jazeera correspondent, has said Egypt's constitutional council will hold a crisis meeting to discuss the nation's constitutional changes later on Saturday.

11:50 GMT+2: The Associated Press news agency has reported that Syria's state-run press is praising the fall of the Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.

The Al-Baath daily of Syria's ruling Baath Party said Mubarak's departure will change the "face of Egypt, the region and the entire world."

Al-Baath said Egypt under Mubarak was "at the service of the Zionist and American project."

12:21pm GMT+2: Egyptians woke to a new dawn on Saturday after 30 years of Hosni Mubarak's rule. Full of hope and joy the pro-democracy protesters that occupied Tahrir [Liberation] Square for 18 days started an operation to clean the square.

Mohammed Ramadan, a film maker, wrote on his Facebook page: "I am going to clean the square in a bit... everyone bring plastic bags... mops... or anything that we could use."

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/sites/default/files/imagecache/FeaturedImagePost/images/garbg.JPG

4::00pm GMT+2: Al Jazeera's James Bays, reporting from Cairo, says the curfew hours in the country have been reduced, and are now in effect from midnight until 6 am. Meanwhile, state tv announced that the stock market is due to open on Wednesday.

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From the New York Times live blot

Some current members of the government had been barred from traveling abroad, The Associated Press reported, quoting an official at the Cairo airport.

The army spokesman urged citizens to cooperate with the police, after weeks of civil strife, and urged a force stained by accusations of abuse and torture to be mindful of the department's new slogan: "The police in the service of the people." Earlier, the defense minister, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, drove to Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the new Egypt. However, he did not leave his car.

As the impact of the revolution settled in, some members of the movement that toppled Mr. Mubarak vowed to continue their protests, saying that all their demands had not yet been met - including an end to the emergency law that allows detention without charges, and the release of political prisoners.

At a news conference, a group called the Coalition of the Youth of the Revolution said it had not yet talked with the military and would lay out a roadmap for the future. It also said protesters should leave Tahrir Square and return next Friday to honor those who had died in the protests.

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@Advocate,

Quote:

I am in favor of South Carolina (my state) over him a safe haven.

Hey Advocate--I got in first for London. Would you care to try to tempt him to choose SC before London?

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@spendius,

Did you know that the Egyptian military owns a third of Egypt's commercial enterprises. Now it can make the rules for the other 2/3rds.

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Quote:

As massive street demonstrations are met with widespread violence in Algeria, the country is reporting that many Facebook accounts have been deleted or blocked by the government, in an effort to stifle protests against President Abdelaziz Boutifleka, activists on Twitter reported around midday in the country.

They also said that the government is working fast to cut off all Internet providers in the country. All part of the effort to quell Egypt-inspired protests aimed at ending the 12-year rule of Bouteflika.

Source

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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