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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
hingehead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 01:28 am
@msolga,
Quote:
THEN we can have a discussion.
And that's what we're here for, yes?

Apparently not - that got voted down too.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 02:18 am
@cicerone imposter,
I haven't let them upset or distract me, ci.

It is more of a comment about the sorry state of "debate" around here these days. I feel very sad about it.Sad

Am I dreaming, or am I correct in my assessment that A2Kers with opposing political views in the past were required to be considerably more up-front about their respective positions? ... before this thumbing up & down approach to "involvement" in political discussions, especially?
That seemed a much more straightforward & honest state of affairs to me. And I sorely miss it.

But anyway, moving right along:

This (quoted below) was the (Wikileaked) US assessment of Suleiman's claims about the Muslim Brotherhood in the past, which is important, I think.

Perhaps the Brotherhood is not exactly the bogeymen that we have been led to believe it is? ... It might well be very relevant to quite a number of Egyptians.

Perhaps Mubarak, & now Suleiman, are being forced (finally) to deal with some very legitimate demands from the Muslim Brotherhood? Why has this organization been banned for so long? There has not been a legitimate reason for that for 50 years now.

Mubarak & Suleiman have demonized the Muslim Brotherhood for years, to the US. Most likely looking after their own interests.

It is interesting that the US apparently never accepted Suleiman's assessment of the threat that the Brotherhood posed.
It is also interesting that Suleiman is now negotiating with this (until recently banned) organization, in an attempt to find a resolution to the current situation in Egypt. Are we expected to believe that he has suddenly become an honest broker?

Quote:
In a cable dated 25 October 2007, Ricciardone said Suleiman "takes an especially hard line on Tehran" and frequently refers to the Iranians as "devils".

The cables suggest US officials have consistently responded sceptically to the Egyptian government's dire warnings about the Brotherhood.

In a 29 November 2005 cable to Mueller before his visit, Ricciardone said Egyptian authorities "have a long history of threatening us with the MB bogeyman". "Your counterparts may try to suggest that [then president George Bush's] insistence on greater democracy in Egypt is somehow responsible for the MB's electoral success," he wrote. "You should push back that, on the contrary, the MB's rise signals the need for greater democracy and transparency in government.

"The images of intimidation and fraud that have emerged from the recent elections favour the extremists both we and the Egyptian government oppose. The best way to counter narrow-minded Islamist politics is to open the system."

In a follow-up cable on 29 January 2006, Ricciardone seemed to foreshadow the current unrest when he wrote to Mueller: "We do not accept the proposition that Egypt's only choices are a slow-to-reform authoritarian regime or an Islamist extremist one; nor do we see greater democracy in Egypt as leading necessarily to a government under the MB."



http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/06/wikileaks-egypt-omar-suleiman-muslim-brotherhood

0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 02:51 am
@talk72000,
I meant to respond to this a couple of days ago, but it's gotten away from me till now ..:

Quote:
My feeling is that Mubarak is quite honest as he had not stashed any money anywhere ....


Well, not quite!:

Quote:

Mubarak family fortune could reach $70bn, say experts:


President Hosni Mubarak's family fortune could be as much as $70bn (£43.5bn) according to analysis by Middle East experts, with much of his wealth in British and Swiss banks or tied up in real estate in London, New York, Los Angeles and along expensive tracts of the Red Sea coast. ...

....Amaney Jamal, a political science professor at Princeton University, said the estimate of $40bn-70bn was comparable with the vast wealth of leaders in other Gulf countries.

"The business ventures from his military and government service accumulated to his personal wealth," she told ABC news. "There was a lot of corruption in this regime and stifling of public resources for personal gain."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/04/hosni-mubarak-family-fortune

By contrast:

Quote:

Two thirds of Egypt's 80 million people are below 30 and many have no jobs. About 40 percent of Egyptians live on less than $2 a day.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE70O3UW20110128?i=2
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 04:55 am
@cicerone imposter,
True. You can't worry about ridiculous thumbing. Many times, it has no reasoning at all behind it. Have fun with it.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 08:11 am
Quote:
1406: Egypt's cabinet has decided to give government employees a 15% rise in wages and pensions, AP reports.


Maybe the cynics on this forum is catching, but I sort of see that as a bribe?
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 08:14 am
@revelette,
Which suggests that our salaries, wages and benefits are bribes as well but, fortunately, on a grander scale.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 08:59 am
@hawkeye10,
Friends and family, primarily. According to an Al Jazeera report, the first family is reported to receive 50% of all income generated in Egypt.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:09 am
From the Guardian blog

The US policy towards Egypt is coming in for increasing criticism. The Guardian's Washington bureau chief Ewen MacAskill writes: "Flexibility can be advantageous in international relations, but there comes a time when it starts to look like dithering. So it is in the US, where the official position on the Egypt uprising has been changing almost daily."

The Independent's Robert Fisk reports on the business links to Mubarak of the US envoy Frank Wisner following his significant gaffe this weekend.

Frank Wisner, President Barack Obama's envoy to Cairo who infuriated the White House this weekend by urging Hosni Mubarak to remain President of Egypt, works for a New York and Washington law firm which works for the dictator's own Egyptian government.

Mr Wisner's astonishing remarks – "President Mubarak's continued leadership is critical: it's his opportunity to write his own legacy" – shocked the democratic opposition in Egypt and called into question Mr Obama's judgement, as well as that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:13 am
9:48pm GMT: Link Foreign reporters are being told they can't enter Tahrir Square without an Egyptian press card, Chris McGreal reports from Cairo.

It is not clear whether this is just bureaucratic, or whether it is a deliberate strategy to diminish the reporting from the square. Certainly the government is trying to marginalise what's going on in the square with the talks that are taking place and to suggest, over State TV, that the protesters are now out of step with what is happening in the rest of the country.

The army made an attempt to clear burnt out cars [on Tahrir Square]. What they have been trying to do, is persuade protesters to move the barricades. The protesters saw that as an attempt to neuter the protests. That attempt now seems to be on hold, because the protesters have made it quite clear they will resist it. The government is keen to avoid any physical confrontation while these talks are going on. The problem for the people in the square is to maintain relevance. One of the ways to remain relevant is to keep the numbers up, to keep the square closed down, and to say that their central demand that Hosni Mubarak has to go mustn't be abandoned by the opposition groups claiming to speak in their name.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:15 am
10:38pm GMT: The Egyptian government will try to raise £1.5bn from the financial markets later today, according to my colleague Graeme Wearden on our business desk

Today's auction of 15bn Egyptian pounds (£1.56bn) worth of government debt should indicate whether the ongoing protests against Hosni Mubarak have spooked investors. Analysts believe Egypt will find enough buyers, but may have to pay a much higher interest rate than before. The sale was meant to take place last week, but was postponed after the crisis escalated.

A failed auction would be a serious problem, as Egypt needs the money to pay off earlier debt which is about to mature. The country is running a deficit of around 8% of GDP for this year, so is reliant on government borrowing to close the gap.

One potential hitch is that many Egyptian banks may avoid the auction because they don't whether their reserves are going to be depleted as customers rush to withdraw their savings. There were long queues at many branches yesterday as banks opened for the first time in a week.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:19 am
12:53pm GMT: Mubarak maybe finished but the regime is alive and kicking, Middle East analysts point out.

Issandr El Amrani on his Arabist blog highlights two recent articles.

First Joshua Stacher is assistant professor of political science at Kent State University, writing in Foriegn Affiars:

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, the Egyptian state did not experience a regime breakdown. The protests certainly rocked the system and had Mubarak on his heels, but at no time did the uprising seriously threaten Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, never balked...

There is no doubt that the post-Mubarak era is afoot, but it is not necessarily a democratic one. The Egyptian military leaders that are governing the country seem content to leave Mubarak in his place so Suleiman can act as the sitting president. Indeed, even leading government officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have begun to direct their concerns to Suleiman's office. Hence, as the protesters in Tahrir Square -- and the non-protesters facing empty refrigerators and wallets at home -- have begun to feel the state's squeeze, the regime has so far maintained its ability to control how the conflict is unfolding.


Similarly Nabil Shawkat writing on Ahram Online:


Mubarak is now out of the picture, perhaps by orders of his vice president. He is not going to be part of the future of this country. He will either leave Egypt in an "honourable" way, or just be pushed to the back to sign papers and rolled out on occasion to repeat a few well-rehearsed phrases. Mubarak is no more. His son is no more. His party is no more. But the spirit of his rule, the essence of his regime, and the methods of his era are far from over.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:50 am
3:37pm GMT: Germany has suspended arms exports to Egypt because of human rights concerns, Reuters reports.

"In view of the current situation in Egypt... the processing of these applications is now suspended. The economy ministry is also investigating permits that have already been granted," the economy ministry said in a statement on Monday. Germany sold some 22 million euros ($30 million) worth of armaments to Egypt in 2010, after selling 77.5 million euros worth in 2009, said the ministry, which is responsible for approving all arms exports. Published reports have said at least part of the arms exports included submachine guns that were intended for police use. Early into the crackdown on demonstrators last month, Germany threatened to cut development aid to Egypt - one of the largest recipients of German aid - if authorities did not abandon violence.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 09:54 am
@JPB,
Surely now that the everything is out in the open and been exposed world wide, they can't go back to business as usual with the corruption and government favorites so to speak? (going by what I have been reading these last two weeks) Will the reforms in the elections be part of the future there or not? If not, what good does Mubarak leaving do anybody?
spendius
 
  4  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:06 am
@JPB,
Quote:
shocked the democratic opposition in Egypt and called into question Mr Obama's judgement, as well as that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.


Called into question is an understatement.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:08 am
@revelette,
I think that's the main point (or one of them, at least) of the folks who are refusing to leave the square. They aren't yet convinced that the concessions offered so far are going to bring about any real reforms.

Two opposition groups were involved in this weekend's talks. Both have said that what's being offered so far are insufficient.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:32 am
@revelette,
I don't think it was much of a secret before. Two of the biggest breaking points (for the Egyptian people), though, may have been Mubarak's intention of continuing his corrupt rule through his son, Gamal, and the fact that food prices in Egypt have tripled over the past few months.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  2  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:40 am
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

From the Guardian blog

So it is in the US, where the official position on the Egypt uprising has been changing almost daily."

Someone on Christiane Amanpour's 'This Week' telecast of yesterday morning said it has been changing every 12 hours.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  3  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:42 am
@revelette,
Those who have jobs (and are getting upset at not being able to work because of the shutdown) are getting a raise, while those who are protesting due to lack of jobs and high unemployment remain unemployed. Yeah, it seems sort of like a bribe with the hopes of quelling widespread support of the protesters.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 10:57 am
Tribute to the True Heros in the Arab world! This one is for you guys!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awp8PTZzv_s
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Feb, 2011 12:00 pm
I found this to be interesting!
The protests that overthrew half a century of autocratic rule in Tunisia are spreading. The governments of Egypt, Algeria, and Yemen are feeling the wrath of decades of repression as people take to the streets and demand freedom.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vk448SjT1kU
0 Replies
 
 

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