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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:28 pm
It is this part of Mubarak's speech that gives me great concern. He still retains the emergency powers he bestowed upon himself and will use them to seek retribution on the civilians. That he calls on the hated police force and not the people-friendly military to protect the citizens speaks volumes about his intentions:

Quote:

...
"I talk to you during critical times that are testing Egypt and its people which could sweep them into the unknown. The country is passing through difficult times and tough experiences which began with noble youths and citizens who practise their rights to peaceful demonstrations and protests, expressing their concerns and aspirations but they were quickly exploited by those who sought to spread chaos and violence, confrontation and to violate the constitutional legitimacy and to attack it.

"Those protests were transformed from a noble and civilised phenomenon of practising freedom of expression to unfortunate clashes, mobilised and controlled by political forces that wanted to escalate and worsen the situation. They targeted the nation's security and stability through acts of provocation theft and looting and setting fires and blocking roads and attacking vital installations and public and private properties and storming some diplomatic missions.

...

"In this context, I charge the police apparatus to carry out its duty in serving the people, protecting the citizens with integrity and honour with complete respect for their rights, freedom and dignity.

"I also demand the judicial and supervisory authorities to take immediately the necessary measures to continue pursuing outlaws and to investigate those who caused the security disarray and those who undertook acts of theft, looting and setting fires and terrorising citizens.


I think we're going to see a lot more violence and bloodshed in Egypt in the next few weeks.

By the way, for anyone not able to hear it, here's the complete text of his speech:

http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFLDE7102JP20110201?sp=true
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:41 pm
@Butrflynet,
Quote:
It is this part of Mubarak's speech that gives me great concern. He still retains the emergency powers he bestowed upon himself and will use them to seek retribution on the civilians. That he calls on the hated police force and not the people-friendly military to protect the citizens speaks volumes about his intentions:

There is that, and the giving him about six months to pad his Swiss bank accounts with mostly American money. This exit was not expected nor planned for, he has catch up work to do.

But hey, Obama says it is the right thing to do, who am I to complain! And why would the Egyptian citizens have a problem with this plan??
Irishk
 
  4  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:45 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
And why would the Egyptian citizens have a problem with this plan??


He said he wouldn't run again.

What he didn't tell them is that he's planning to extend his current term to 2038.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:48 pm
@Irishk,
Irish, Thanks for my best laugh of the day.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:49 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
It is this part of Mubarak's speech that gives me great concern. He still retains the emergency powers he bestowed upon himself and will use them to seek retribution on the civilians. That he calls on the hated police force and not the people-friendly military to protect the citizens speaks volumes about his intentions:

There is that, and the giving him about six months to pad his Swiss bank accounts with mostly American money. This exit was not expected nor planned for, he has catch up work to do.

But hey, Obama says it is the right thing to do, who am I to complain! And why would the Egyptian citizens have a problem with this plan??


That was this morning... or yesterday... or sometime before Mubarak's speech. I noticed a definite difference between what was stated as Obama's position before the speech and what he said in his address afterward.

Mubarak's speech was confrontational and defensive. Obama apparently pulled his support for a seven month transition because of it.

12.45am GMT: Time to wrap up today's live blog but first a quick update on Obama's phone call with Mubarak, which a White House official is describing as "a direct and frank conversation".

According to ABC, Obama explained to Mubarak that an "orderly transition can't be prolonged" and must begin now. In other words, a seven-month handover period is not what the White House has in mind.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:56 pm
@Irishk,
Quote:
What he didn't tell them is that he's planning to extend his current term to 2038.
What he will do is pull a Rudy Giuliani, wait till the time is almost up and then claim that he cant leave because there is too much work to do and he does not trust who he is handing over the keys too. Unlike Giuliani, Mubarak will get away with it, as he will have had six months to work on the military problem.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:58 pm
@hawkeye10,
Well, since the next massive rally is being called for Friday at the President's palace, I think you're wrong. It's only Tuesday. Friday is still a long way off, but I'll be surprised if he's still in office in September.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:58 pm
@Ceili,
Ceili wrote:


Not Arabs. Egyptians. They don't have a problem with this classification. I didn't refer to Iran and no, they don't consider themselves Arabs either, so what?

This 'revolution' is being forced by the young people and many see them selves in a more secular light. Educated, modern, internet savvy, this is about facebook and twitter more than religion. These young people are not all that interested in Sharia but jobs, food, safety - just like the rest of us.

The Iranian revolution was in a totally different time and from what I've been reading it might not be that long before the next one.

As Beth said, it's interesting reading different new sources, the American perspective is all about Muslim this and Muslim that, but in a country that's had Muslim leadership for a very long time, this doesn't seem to be THE issue. Believe it or not, there are other concerns in the world, and in Muslim countries.


Here is what you have reported the Egyptian to have said. If you were not implying that he spoke with authority than I am mistaken.

Quote:
That Egyptians firstly aren't Arabs and secondly, the Islamic Brotherhood is a small part of political process, his words, they are the strongest of the weakest political groups in Egypt.


It seems fairly clear that you are of the opinion that an Islamist regime is not a likely outcome of the current unrest and you were citing the Egyptian as to why this is so:

1) Egyptians aren't Arabs
2) The Muslim Brotherhood is weak

What was the point of stating that Egyptians aren't Arabs if this wasn't intended to suggest that we should not expect the Egyptians to think or act like Arabs?

I am assuming that his first point and second were connected, since that is generally the case when someone uses "firstly," and "secondly, " and therefore conclude that the Egyptian believes Egyptians will not think or act like Arabs and succumb to Islamism.

This point is irrelevant because a people do not need to be Arabs to succumb to Islamism - see Iran and Afghanistan.

That the MB is the strongest of a weak group of political factions makes them more, not less, likely to have the strongest influence if and when the 800 pound gorilla of a military backed Mubarak is gone.

I don't know what you have been reading about Iran but did it include the recent crushing of a youthful, nascent democratic reform movement? Did it also include the fact that the Shah was overthrown by a largely secular, youthful and pro-democratic movement only to have the revolution co-opted by Islamists?

You are making the usual mistake of equating Muslims with Islamists. With 90 percent of the population being Muslim it is almost absolutely certain that the next leader will be a Muslim, and I suppose Mubarak considers himself a Muslim as well, but the American perspective is not all about Muslim this and Muslim that.

The American perspective (if there is a singular one) is that we have seen pro-democratic reform movements co-opted before whether by Nazis in Germany, communists in China or Islamists in Iran. Since Islamists and not Nazis or communists are the extremist ideologues du jour in this part of the world, and since the Muslim Brotherhood has been around since the 40's (when it cooperated with Hitler's Germany) it is not illogical or paranoid to be concerned that they will follow the path taken by Islamists in Iran.

It is going to take a lot more than being familiar with twitter to establish a democratic government in Egypt, and the people who will get to vote (if and when they ever do) will not all be secular, educated, tech-savvy kids. They will mostly be the ones who believe that women who commit adultery should be stoned.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:59 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
According to ABC, Obama explained to Mubarak that an "orderly transition can't be prolonged" and must begin now. In other words, a seven-month handover period is not what the White House has in mind
Which Murbarak of course did not commit to....he said that he would ask "parliament" to move up elections. Which is hilarious because he controls "Parliament" and they will do what ever he tell them to do. THis is like a King saying that he will ask "parliament" for something...it is a dodge. And what ever the action called for is will never happen. There may or may not be an actual "asking", but really, who gives a ****?
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:00 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
Well, since the next massive rally is being called for Friday at the President's palace, I think you're wrong. It's only Tuesday. Friday is still a long way off, but I'll be surprised if he's still in office in September.
You miss the point...I agree that he will be on a plane with-in days, but I am saying that Obama muffed this one badly. His words and actions are far far away from what is doable. Obama has no clue.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:06 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Obama has no clue.


Responses are out from the UK, France, Germany, Russia etc. How do you read what they are saying vs what Obama is saying?
failures art
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 08:21 pm
If the demonstrations blossom into full revolution and neighboring states join in, could the establishment of some sort of larger multi-nation confederacy arise out of this?

I feel the more successful one revolution is, the more likely more are. I think the domino effect is quite possible here.

A
R
T
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:40 pm
@failures art,
Quote:
I think the domino effect is quite possible here.

Perhaps you've been stuck in a cave somewhere but....the domino effect is well along NOW. The question is how far will it go. The Saudis and the Kuwaiti's have much to be concerned about. As do the oil future traders....
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:50 pm
@realjohnboy,
I have not been following, but it appears that nearly everyone is in agreement that Obama was well out of tune with reality

Quote:
A Western diplomat tells the BBC they and the US state department have taken a while independently to reach the same conclusion, but Mr Mubarak has to go now. "It's hard to see how the process of reform could work with him at the helm."

The reason for this change of heart? It is too little, too late. One official said: "If he had given this speech last week, it would have been great
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2011/02/has_mubarak_offered_too_little.html
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:02 pm
@hawkeye10,
um.... the reference to giving the speech last week was in regards to Pres Mubarak not Obama.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:03 pm
@failures art,
failures art wrote:

If the demonstrations blossom into full revolution and neighboring states join in, could the establishment of some sort of larger multi-nation confederacy arise out of this?

I feel the more successful one revolution is, the more likely more are. I think the domino effect is quite possible here.

A
R
T


Possible, but unlikely.

Any new government is going to have its hands full staying in place
Finn dAbuzz
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:06 pm
@hawkeye10,
Far be it from me to gratutiously sling credit in Obama's direction, but when all is said and done I suspect we may find the US played a more significant role than you believe.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:09 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Far be it from me to gratutiously sling credit in Obama's direction, but when all is said and done I suspect we may find the US played a more significant role than you believe.
Past tense?? This problem is far from solved, and it looks like we are currently going in the wrong direction. The "role" that you speak of could with in hours be turned into "responsibility for failure" if you are correct.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:34 pm
I can hardly wait to read on a2k a socio-politico-economic analysis of the Bedouin, Nubian and The Fallahin, let alone the UAR. Ah well, arabs is arabs even if they traded in their camels for toyota trucks.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:37 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
How do Arabs think and act, there, Einstein?
 

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