Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

@JPB,

There is a history of respect for the military in Egypt, and as long as they are not mowing down protestors, that respect will endure.

The very big and unsettled question is how the demonstrators react to whatever proposal is endorsed by the military. If it is something short of sending Mubarak packing and establishing elections in the next 90 days the embrace may start to grow less secure.

Apparently, it's not just the current military officers who benefit from US aid, but the retired old war horses as well. I wonder how much influence they have on the serving officers.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

In any case, I am of the opinion that nearly $3 billion in annual aid helps our position far more than any shared experiences at West Point.

Only if
1) the military thinks that the Americans might be willing to continue the aid
and
2) if taking American money is acceptable going forwards to the Egyptian people, which is far from certain.

If the aid is almost certainly going to go away all of the money spent buys exactly nothing, what ever happened in the past does not factor into plans for the future, into making decisions now.

Americans tend to vastly over estimate what money buys...

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11.51pm GMT: It was a brief statement by Obama, just a few minutes but the highlight was this statement:

"What is clear ... is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and the change must begin now."

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

There is a history of respect for the military in Egypt, and as long as they are not mowing down protestors, that respect will endure.

You are obviously exceedingly ignorant of history, Finn. Mowing down protestors has never caused the US to stop support for proxy militaries or proxy terrorists. Unless, of course, these things garner a wide audience. Then the US does what it's attempting to do in this situation, and that to pretend that the support has always been "for the people".

Anyone with half a brain knows that has not been the case in Egypt for many years. I'll see if I can get someone to explain it to you.

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@realjohnboy,

I'm not surprised they were not content with Mubarak's promise to not run for re-election in September, but to react with violence and force the hand of the military will be a huge mistake.

Undoubtedly there are provocateurs as well as just plain hot heads at work.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Demonstrators are not happy with what they heard tonight and appear to be ready to clash with police and "pro-Mubarak" forces.

since the police and military appear to have quite different views as well as roles, I think it will be interesting to see what happens if there is a police v military clash

will police disappear again as they did last weekend?

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@JPB,

Quote:

What is clear ... is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and the change must begin now."

That's super, because in his speech Mubarak made it clear the he intends before he goes take revenge upon those who have pushed him out. Sounds to me like Obama is supportive. This will not go down will with the Egyptian people.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Not Arabs. Egyptians. They don't have a problem with this classification. I didn't refer to Iran and no, they don't consider themselves Arabs either, so what?

This 'revolution' is being forced by the young people and many see them selves in a more secular light. Educated, modern, internet savvy, this is about facebook and twitter more than religion. These young people are not all that interested in Sharia but jobs, food, safety - just like the rest of us.

The Iranian revolution was in a totally different time and from what I've been reading it might not be that long before the next one.

As Beth said, it's interesting reading different new sources, the American perspective is all about Muslim this and Muslim that, but in a country that's had Muslim leadership for a very long time, this doesn't seem to be THE issue. Believe it or not, there are other concerns in the world, and in Muslim countries.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

Undoubtedly there are provocateurs as well as just plain hot heads at work

we already know that the Mubarak forces have been at work rampaging through the cities. And we know that Mubarak pulled the police off the streets for more than a day to teach the rube's a lesson as to who is boss.

Mubarak promises are worth ZERO!

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@hawkeye10,

It has bought 30 years of peace between Israel and Egypt, and likely 30 years of peace between Israel and the rest of the countries in the region.

Obviously the aid is only of value with the military if they think it will continue, but as long as they keep Washington relatively happy, it will...which is why it helps our position. We certainly don't have any leverage with the protesters.

As for #2 - again, that remains to be seen, and right now the US is trying to broker a deal which can keep the military in a position of power and the lid on the Egyptian people.

It is by no means assured that such an outcome can be pulled off, especially because our government has no leverage with the Egyptian people, but unless they are far more incompetent that even I believe them to be, the Administration is not just sitting on its collective ass; wringing its collective hands and hoping this all works out OK.

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@JTT,

Did you not laugh JT when President Obama's opened a speech by saying that the main concern of the US was to avoid violence and bloodshed. I must confess I did.

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@JTT,

JTT wrote:

Mowing down protestors has never caused the US to stop support for proxy militaries or proxy terrorists.

hell, if you're the leader of china they throw you a state dinner

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

but unless they are far more incompetent that even I believe them to be, the Administration is not just sitting on its collective ass; wringing its collective hands and hoping this all works out OK.

Are you taking bets?? Obama getting the Isreali-Palistinian talks restarted last year when there was no apparent reason to do so, and then having them collapse 4 weeks later because there was nothing to work with, indicates to me that Obama's idea's about our influence in the region ranges somewhere between wildly optimistic and delusional.

EDIT I misread...thought you said that they are doing nothing. Still, I am sure Obama is swinging the axe, however I doubt very much that he is accomplishing anything

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@hawkeye10,

He didn't sound very supportive to me.

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I wonder if the police = pro mubarak forces; probably they are pro police and their way of life, and looking for their role. I know they are unpopular and am guessing some of the whys. I've followed some of all this but not as much as some a2kers. Anyone have a link to a good summary or two about the police forces? I can google, just wondering if you have seen any useful bits.

Tangent, but part of my interest over the years -
I had a friend who fled the Nasser regime; not really my friend but a friend's not very long time boyfriend. He was and I guess still is very bright. He had described his situation, which unfortunately I can't just describe again some 40 years later. I wonder what his take would be. (Off to google to see if he's written on it. edit, no, he still has creds listed on google, but not opinions.)

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@JPB,

This is the end of the speech

Quote:

In the last few days, the passion and dignity demonstrated by the people of Egypt has been an inspiration to people around the world, including here in the US, and to all those who believe in the inevitability of human freedom.

To the people of Egypt, particularly the young people of Egypt, I want to be clear: we hear your voices. I have an unyielding belief that you will determine your own destiny and seize the promise of a better future for your children and your grandchildren.

And I say that, as someone committed to a partnership between the United States and the people of Egypt, there will be difficult days ahead. Many questions about Egypt remain unanswered. But I am confident that the people of Egypt will find those answers. That truth can be seen in the sense of community in the streets ... can be seen in the Egyptians who linked arms to protect the national museum, a new generation to protect the treasure of antiquity, a human chain connecting a great and ancient civilisation to the promise of a new day.

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@JPB,

Nice words, which are cancelled out by trying to find a way to let Mubarak stay on for now with full control over the state apparatus which he will certainly put to use taking revenge for his demise. His being willing to take the police off the streets and send his thugs out to terrorize the people tells us everything we need to know about what his priorities are.

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@hawkeye10,

The words are most always syrupy when a US politician utters them. But you sure got religion quick. Is this a disease that only strikes Americans?

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@Walter Hinteler,

Props to Bushie.

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@JTT,

Should we have gone in and firebombed Egypt? He succeeded Sadat. We didn't install him. Where, pray tell, did we go wrong with Egypt? Should we have taken your countries' lead? What did your country do in response to Egypt?

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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