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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
dyslexia
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 01:33 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
I can think of a few folk here who I can imagine having those thoughts.
I can think of more than just a few thinking "Egypt? isn't that somewhere near Pakistan or one of those other weird places?"
JTT
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 01:38 pm
@revelette,
It's taken you this long to see through Finn dAbuzz, Rev?
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 01:40 pm
@dyslexia,
dyslexia wrote:

Quote:
I can think of a few folk here who I can imagine having those thoughts.
I can think of more than just a few thinking "Egypt? isn't that somewhere near Pakistan or one of those other weird places?"


well, Fox did move it to Iraq, so the confusion is understandable. How to keep up with a country on the move?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 01:53 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:
Quote:
How to keep up with a country on the move?


Now, that's witty!
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:17 pm
@revelette,
revelette wrote:

boy, finn, I don't think I have read such a gloom and doom and somewhat offensive in language post from you before. What gives?

When I look at the images of all the people in Egypt exercising rights we take for granted, I just see it as a positive thing regardless if they have a plan for what is next or not. Apparently, all those people know what they had and they don't want it anymore. When we first started our country I doubt the "founding fathers" had all the answers either.


Offensive language?

Do you mean the use of "wogs?" That was intended as parody, and not meant to offend.

Gloom and Doom?

I thought I just proved that Westerners don't see Egyptians as "the others," or if they do, it's a good thing. Surprised

Actually I would love to believe that the unrest across North Africa and the Middle East is a positive trend; that it signals the end of autocratic regimes and the birth of democracy in, at least, a few of these countries.

I just don't, and I think there is far greater reason to be pessimistic than optimistic.

In Egypt, in particular, Mubarak has spent 30 years purging his country of any forces for moderate, democratic reform. Not only did this help to secure his power internally, it maintained the lesser of two evils choice for the US: Mubarak or Islamists.

I don't see how a fledgling democratic leader will be able to rise to power without somehow forming a coalition with the Muslim Brotherhood and I simply do not believe that the latter will be content without full power and the imposition of Sharia Law.

In the end I see continued autocratic rule in all of these states...either by military backed strongmen or by Islamists, and a greater chance of war with Israel and/or among these states.

I certainly hope I am proven wrong.



talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:19 pm
Is the domino effect realistic? It is if they are propped up by the Saudis, U.S or other western countries. These propped up dictators have not responded to economic issues such as poverty resulting from over-population which is generally the case as Islamists like huge populations to forward their agenda to fight for their Jihads. Poverty is not acceptable to many when TV is available and can see other countries doing better and their citizens having more fulfilling lives.

I guess those Muslim countries with huge populations will be in the domino effect. The exception might be Pakistan as there is an outside force that is propping up the Islamist and the military - India which has occupied Muslim majority Kashmir.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:22 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
In Egypt, in particular, Mubarak has spent 30 years purging his country of any forces for moderate, democratic reform. Not only did this help to secure his power internally, it maintained the lesser of two evils choice for the US: Mubarak or Islamists
actually, the charge is that Mubarak spent 30 years purging Egypt of competent political leaders, he did not want any challenge, from like minded folk or not like minded.
0 Replies
 
Ceili
 
  3  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:25 pm
Watching the news the other night, an Egyptian man, didn't get his name, said...
That Egyptians firstly aren't Arabs and secondly, the Islamic Brotherhood is a small part of political process, his words, they are the strongest of the weakest political groups in Egypt.

JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:27 pm
@Ceili,
And yet the old guard of the west can't think about anything else.

From the Telegraph:
20:10 Henry Kissinger told Channel 4 news that if an Islamist government replaces Mr Mubarak, it would be a "fundamental change to the kind of world we have known since World War 2".
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:32 pm
@Ceili,
I think it's interesting how different coverage is in different countries.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:33 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Because we want to view the demonstrations in Egypt as a positive expression of basic human yearning for freedom and self-determination?


I'm inclined to think that "freedom of expression and self-determination" are merely the route they connect to our way of life as we have showed it to be. The populous as a collective will accept anything once it's in the mud-honey. Getting it into a state where it hasn't much to lose is always risky and especially when the Chinese option is off the table as I assume it is. We have been assured that is the case.
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:39 pm
Uh Oh.
King Abdullah of Jordan has dismissed the cabinet, including the PM. A new PM has been appointed.
The action follows a series of large street protests seemingly focused on economic issues such as unemployment and inflation.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:40 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

... Getting it into a state where it hasn't much to lose is always risky...


I've been hearing people saying this all day. That they have nothing to lose and they will stay as long as it takes until Mubarak resigns.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:43 pm
@Ceili,
Ceili wrote:

Watching the news the other night, an Egyptian man, didn't get his name, said...
That Egyptians firstly aren't Arabs and secondly, the Islamic Brotherhood is a small part of political process, his words, they are the strongest of the weakest political groups in Egypt.




That the Egyptians are not Arabs is not a uniformly held opinion...even in Egypt, but even if it is true, I don't see the relevance. The Iranians are definately not Arabs and they have a theocratic Islamist regime. It's not as if there are any shining examples of democracy in North Africa they can call upon, or was he sentimentally harkening back to Pharonic times?

And the moderate democratic reformers are perhaps the weakest of the weak.

If and when Mubarak leaves and the military doesn't insert his replacement, a vacuum will develop, and the strongest of the weak will become the strongest of all who struggle for control. Even if they do not, publicly, come out on top they will have to be accomodated by whomever does
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:46 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
I've been hearing people saying this all day. That they have nothing to lose and they will stay as long as it takes until Mubarak resigns
Perhapse it will be awhile...the US is trying to keep him in power till SEP....Another bad move by Obama....if prelim reports that this was an American idea hold true. If it was the negotiated settlement between the military and Mubarak it would be a different story of course..
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:48 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Do you seriously think that the millions of people who stood up to an oppressive President, stood up to the police shooting at them and throwing tear gas into their crowds, and stood up to the military even before the military assured them that they were only there to maintain order, wouldn't stand up to the Brotherhood?
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:48 pm
@JPB,
What should the new guard think be thinking of?

Iraq in North Africa?
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:51 pm
@hawkeye10,
I'm hoping that was the recommendation made much earlier today. Anyone who's been watching this unfold couldn't have possibly thought that that would be satisfactory to the crowd.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:53 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
I'm hoping that was the recommendation made much earlier today. Anyone who's been watching this unfold couldn't have possibly thought that that would be satisfactory to the crowd.
Reports are that an admin official made a trip and delivered this message personally. However, so far as the people of Egypt go there is no way that America comes off as anything but being a day late and a dollar short.

Obama muffed this one badly..
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2011 02:55 pm
@JPB,
It will not be a matter of standing up to the Muslim Brotherhood

http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
 

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