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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 04:33 pm
@spendius,
I believe the Syrians and the Egyptians have amply demonstrated their capabilities in this area. Though the Israelis beat them soundly through technology and tactical surprise, they were proficient and capable foes. I have little doubt about their capability to make flights by the Libyan air force risky enough to dissuade them from action and perhaps even to alter their loyalty.

I agree they may be unwilling to act. However, it is their problem.
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 06:08 pm
@georgeob1,
You're woffling George.
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 06:24 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
- A no-fly zone, patrolled by U.S. and European aircraft, would be extremely complex, requiring coordination with a rotation of aerial refueling tankers, and strike fighters poised against Gadhafi's surface-to-air missile batteries. Even if tightly enforced, a no-fly zone would have little or no impact on the outcome of the struggle on the ground, analysts say. Gadhafi has occasionally used strike fighters from his decrepit air force against rebel forces to little evident effect, while the struggle on the ground has continued unabated.
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/03/01/u-s-military-readies-libya-options-with-caution/

What is the point of getting militarily involved at great financial expense and perhaps at great PR expense?? This sound so far like an idea to do something for the sake of doing something, not for the sake of accomplishing anything..
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 06:28 pm
@reasoning logic,
He speaks only the truth.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 06:31 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

You're woffling George.

What does that mean? I appears that it is you who are being unclear and evasive - if that is your point.
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 07:04 pm
@reasoning logic,
This is politics. Truth is the first casualty. I have no sympathy for Palestinians. Their own leaders are using them. Who would you rather have in charge .....Israelis or Arabs ?
reasoning logic
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 12 Mar, 2011 07:28 pm
@Ionus,
Good question who do you prefer?
Ionus
 
  -2  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 12:10 am
@reasoning logic,
I fluctuate depending on who is doing what...but in large I dislike the Arabs because the Jews were given a dusty lot no-one wanted then out of sheer arrogance they decided to eliminate Israel. They haven't been able to, and have used terror and keeping the Palestinians in poverty as political weapons. The Palestinians destroyed Lebanon. I would hate to see what they would do to their own country. Look at the infighting in the Gaza strip.

Every time the Arabs attacked Israel they made it stronger and lost more land to it. Now they whinge it is unfair and they should have their land back. Typical of a male dominated society of little dicks.

They have also made a big fuss out of the Temple Mount, which until they took it back from the Crusaders was a rubbish dump. They then built a mosque on it which fell into complete disrepair until the birth of the modern Jewish movement when the hastily repaired it and put a gold dome on it, declaring it to be one of the holiest sites in Islam. Utter bullshit. It is based on a dream Mohammed had where he went to the "furtherest mosque" and talked to God. This has been taken to mean he went to heaven, but this is an after thought when he had died some years before. It was very recently decided that it must have been Jerusalem because that would aid the cause of wiping out Israel.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 02:17 am
@Ionus,
Ionus wrote:

They have also made a big fuss out of the Temple Mount, which until they took it back from the Crusaders was a rubbish dump.


Well, there has been the 'Dome of the Rock since late 7th century. And bishop Arculf even earlier reported about a mosque there, which became the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

It became only a "rubbish dump" (with some hundreds of dead bodies) in 1099, made by the crusaders.
Ionus
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 03:25 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
there has been the 'Dome of the Rock since late 7th century.
I disagree. The Crusaders searched through that rubbish dump looking for valuables, most notable of the searches were the soon-to-be Knights Templar. The only mosque in continuance is the Al Aqsa.

Quote:
It became only a "rubbish dump" (with some hundreds of dead bodies) in 1099, made by the crusaders.
I disagree again. It became a rubbish dump when the Romans rebuilt it, and to discourage the Jews from resettling and to show them who was boss they used the Temple Mount for a rubbish dump. It remained that way till Salah al Din, Yusuf ibn Ayyub retook Jerusalem. For political reasons, he built a Mosque there.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 05:37 am
@georgeob1,
It means George that I believe that this--

Quote:
I believe the Syrians and the Egyptians have amply demonstrated their capabilities in this area. Though the Israelis beat them soundly through technology and tactical surprise, they were proficient and capable foes. I have little doubt about their capability to make flights by the Libyan air force risky enough to dissuade them from action and perhaps even to alter their loyalty.

I agree they may be unwilling to act. However, it is their problem.


had no meaning. If it is "their problem" what are all these highest level discussions and arguments about?

Quote:
I appears that it is you who are being unclear and evasive.


I believe that also has no meaning. If you could quote something I've said that appeared unclear or evasive I will try to explain what I meant.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 06:11 am
@georgeob1,
US backs no-fly zone over Libya

Quote:
The United States has thrown its weight behind the Arab League's call for a United Nations no-fly zone over Libya, where government troops backed by fighter jets are battling rebels seeking to remove Muammar Gaddafi from power.

Washington, which would play a leading role in enforcing any no-fly zone, called the declaration an "important step", but it stopped short of commitment to any military action and made no proposal for a swift meeting of the UN Security Council.

The Arab League's call for a no-fly zone was announced on Saturday by Oman's foreign minister, Youssef bin Alawi bin Abdullah, at a press conference which followed a meeting of the bloc's ministers in the Egyptian capital, Cairo.

Amr Moussa, the bloc's secretary-general, said the League had decided that "serious crimes and great violations" committed by Gaddafi's government against his people had stripped him of legitimacy.

But it was not clear if the League's call for a no-fly zone would provide the unequivocal regional endorsement that NATO required for military action to curb Gaddafi.


I think they are right it is an important step, but so far, as far as I can see that is all it is. Still glad they made it though as it showed which way they are leaning.

1:14pm

Quote:
Discussing the imposition of no-fly zone over Libya, Yousef Bouandel of Qatar University, told Al Jazeera, "Now that the Arab League has supported the no-fly zone, I think that within the next 72 hours or so the Security Council will meet and decide.

"Given what happened in Iraq, they want the no-fly zone but do not want any military intervention.

"In the last 72 hours, Gaddafi forces have been gaining momentum, obviously he wanted to gain as much as possible before the imposition of the no-fly zone.

"And in the long run, it's obvious that Gaddafi's government in Libya will win the war if it continues for another two months or so."


Quote:
9:59am

Speaking about the Arab League's support for the imposition of no-fly zone over Libya, Shadi Hamid, deputy director Brookings Centre Doha, told Al Jazeera that, "This is a big step as the Arab world has reached some consensus on it.

"Gaddafi has been trying to use the narrative that the west is against him but now Arabs have come in support of the west's proposal for a no-fly zone.

"And it was a pre-condition that the Arab countries support it so the coast is clear to move forward on it."


source

cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 11:30 am
@revelette,
Now, we must wait for the "action" that follows those words.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 12:07 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Don't hold your breath.
spendius
 
  -2  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 12:09 pm
Bernard Shaw said that "civil war is one of the privileges of a nation". Who hasn't had one? Or more than one?

And the participants enjoy it. Can't you all see that from watching them? I drew attention to the guys doing pirouettes with a captured tank. They love it. Even the wounded give the V sign whilst being carried into hospitals. Kids and women seemingly don't play much part except as collateral damage and there's more of that elsewhere.

These young men live an ordinary life of skint drudgery. Possibly verging on unendurable. Here's a chance to display and fire off guns and strut. It's joyous. And they are all good blokes if they are trying to overthrow Gadaffi. Like bloody hell they are. They escape from the constant worry of the daily struggle to make ends meet in fighting. It's a bit debasing is struggling to make ends meet with currency.

Fighting has a long and noble history. Who would pay to watch sport if men weren't fighting? It satisfies man's need to be heroic. And women made him like that by admiring heroics. I think there's a fascination with peril too.
Instead of the usual dog eat dog they now have comrades in arms. The dead add to the survivor's cachet and ennoble their dotage. It might be worth the risk.

At least we know that Gadaffi's regime was loose enough to allow this to get started. In Saudi Arabia insurgents are under lock down which usually ends up causing more aggravation that a quick slug out. And nobody says a peep about that.

The idea that what George called the handwringers will have those men under the cosh as soon as Gadaffi goes is a fatuity of some size.

cicerone imposter
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 12:23 pm
@georgeob1,
I'm not.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 12:24 pm
@spendius,
A rather windy but pleasant way of saying we don't really know who the rebels are; what segments of Libyan society may come to dominate the revolution, if it is successful; or what will replace the rather strange Colonel Ghadaffi. This may indeed be the dawn of a new and better age in Libyan affairs, but, if it really is that, they should be able to do it on their own - it can't be impposed externally.
farmerman
 
  0  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 01:10 pm
@revelette,
I hate these "no fly zone" declarations. Its a no win position all around. Its tantamount to war without declaration.
Could we use predators to police the area?
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 01:58 pm
@farmerman,
Quote:
March 7, 2011

Reporting from Ras Lanuf, Libya

On Saturday, Libyan rebels in jeans and sneakers danced in the streets of Bin Jawwad, celebrating a victory over government forces in the hamlet by firing thousands of rounds of precious ammunition into the air.

By Monday, the unruly gunmen had retreated almost 30 miles and were fighting to hold an important oil complex as Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi's aircraft scattered them with strafing runs.

Any momentum rebels may have mustered from two quick battlefield successes was gone. Their premature all-day celebration Saturday, combined with their inexperience and seat-of-the-pants combat , gave Kadafi's forces an opening to fight back.

The conflict in eastern Libya is a battle between two forces with serious weaknesses.

Supremacy in air power, which opposition leaders are seeking to blunt by asking for a no-fly zone, and other weaponry gives Kadafi's forces an advantage. But they suffer from erratic leadership and the questionable loyalty of some fighters.

Despite their undisciplined ways, the rebels exhibited remarkable resilience and esprit de corps in seizing two oil complexes last week.

If the rebels don't act like soldiers, it's because they aren't. They're students, engineers, house painters, deliverymen and accountants. Euphoric over the street uprisings against Kadafi's 41-year rule last month, they joined a brand-new revolutionary army.



But in this army, nobody wears a helmet. Nobody salutes. Nobody issues orders. Every speeding gun truck and overloaded sedan is actually a little army unto itself.

At one point Saturday, the rebels were poised in Bin Jawwad to attack the coastal city of Surt, home to thousands of heavily armed fighters loyal to Kadafi. But Kadafi unleashed a withering air and land assault Sunday that continued the next day with booming airstrikes near the Ras Lanuf oil complex.

The rebels are now bottled up in Ras Lanuf, frustrated by airstrikes that, according to some reports, also hit Monday deep inside rebel territory in the crossroads town of Bishr, about 65 miles to the east.

It was the rebels' poorly handled victory in Bin Jawwad that actually left them struggling to mount the attack on pro-Kadafi forces. They still are promising to do it — once more men and weapons arrive from eastern cities.

A professional fighting force would have cleared Bin Jawwad house by house Saturday to ferret out lingering pro-Kadafi fighters. But the rebels spent the day snapping souvenir photos, waving flags and firing off their weapons. Then they rested.

The next morning, pro-Kadafi fighters launched their assault by firing on the rebels from the cover of houses. They were backed by helicopter gunships and artillery in the kind of coordinated attack the outgunned rebels have yet to attempt.

Nor did the rebels try to win the loyalties of five local tribes whose support has wavered between the rebellion and Kadafi. Instead, they alienated the tribesmen by shooting up their town and terrifying their wives and children.

Forced to retreat to Ras Lanuf, the rebels irritated some supporters in the oil complex by randomly firing weapons day and night.

"It sounds like World War II, but all they're doing is showing off," said an oil company executive who lives near the complex.

Some of these fighters arrived at the front wearing loafers or deck shoes. Some didn't bring weapons. Others have never fired an automatic rifle, much less the ancient, hand-cranked antiaircraft guns that dominate the rebel arsenal.

There are few officers to give orders and few noncommissioned officers to enforce discipline. No authoritative leaders have emerged. There are few generals. In rebel Libya, everybody, like Kadafi, seems to be a colonel.

Sprinkled in among the civilians are deserters from Kadafi's threadbare army garrisons in the east, but they're not a huge help. They are poorly trained and thinly equipped, part of Kadafi's strategy to keep the regular army weak in order to preclude coup attempts.

The army veterans have tried, with little success, to teach passionate young rebels rudimentary military skills. Many new fighters don't know how to clean or disassemble the weapons they looted from army bases.

"Quiet! Please!" Col. Mohammed Abaidy, 53, a Libyan air force veteran, screamed at a young rebel a few feet away who unleashed a volley of ear-splitting antiaircraft fire at no particular target as Abaidy tried to speak Monday.

Abaidy, an air defense specialist, said there was only so much he could teach untrained civilians about battling the jet fighters that strafed the rebels Sunday and Monday.

"They are very brave, and they believe in the revolution, but they don't know much about the military," Abaidy said. He wore a flak vest, the only rebel in sight with body armor.

Arhoma Shahin, 46, a 23-year army veteran, was wearily showing a young rebel how to use an antiaircraft gun Monday. But he didn't let the man fire it, or even turn the crank to aim it.

"This is a revolution — we're all new at this," Shahin shrugged.

The rebels use the old antiaircraft guns in unorthodox ways. They often aim "direct fire" at people rather than skyward at aircraft, as the guns were designed to be used. Regardless of what they aim at, they usually miss.


Several older rebels have used loudspeakers to beg their comrades to stop wasting ammunition. They have been uniformly ignored. When the rebels reload, they leave half-filled ammunition boxes scattered in the desert.

On Monday, the rebels did not seem chastened by their disorganized retreat the day before. They waved flags, fired guns and talked boldly of attacking Surt, though pro-Kadafi fighters still blocked their advance through Bin Jawwad.

The rebels continued to flout standard military procedure by massing fighters in large groups. A bomb or missile from a government jet fighter Monday afternoon missed the tightly packed rebels by only a few hundred yards.

It slammed down, with a tremendous boom that shook the desert floor, on a pickup truck carrying a family of six trying to flee the fighting.

They were part of an exodus of oil complex families awakened at 4 a.m. and warned to leave because airstrikes were imminent. Many of them hastily packed cars with clothing, food and TV sets and fled east to rebel-held territory.

Hospital workers at the Ras Lanuf Medical Center said they were told that a father, mother, grandmother and three children were seriously injured in the airstrike. The six were taken to a larger hospital in Port Brega, another rebel-held eastern oil city.

The pickup was crushed. Bright red blood was smeared on the driver's door and across both seats. A child's red sandals and a small pair of sneakers were inside, along with supplies of drinking water, juice packs and snacks.

Ashraf Kawaifi, 32, an engineer for an oil company in Benghazi who is now a rebel fighter, held up a shrapnel shard the size of a small shoebox.

"Is this Kadafi's bravery? A warplane against a family escaping to the east?" Kawaifi shouted in English as rebel fighters cursed Kadafi and displayed the family's sandals and sneakers.

Other fighters who gathered around the crumpled little truck vowed revenge against Kadafi's men — and fired their weapons at the desert sky.

[email protected]




source



0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  0  
Reply Sun 13 Mar, 2011 02:39 pm
@farmerman,
Quote:
Could we use predators to police the area?


You likely have predators in the area, farmer. Aka the CIA.

Quote:
Its tantamount to war without declaration


What gives with the sudden rush of conscience or am I making too big an assumption?
0 Replies
 
 

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