Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

@hawkeye10,

Says you and all other surveys taken!

@georgeob1,

Quote:

I'm not willing to prejudge the outcome in Egypt.

Nor am I, but I am smart enough to point out that anyone who bets the farm that this works anytime soon is a damn fool. There is not any memory or experience with democracy in Egypt to work with, and Mubarak killed/drove away/squashed anyone who showed any impulse to democracy or political competence.

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@reasoning logic,

Quote:

Says you and all other surveys taken!

Not me,I say that I believe in democracy. I have not seen any data that supports the assertion either. People want some level of freedom and to be happy and to prosper, but you can have all of those things under a competent and benevolent dictator as well as with democracy. I am not convinced that most people care how their society is organized so long as they get what they want.

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@hawkeye10,

Please show us the numbers of countries that

Quote:

People want some level of freedom and to be happy and to prosper, but you can have all of those things under a competent and benevolent dictator

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@hawkeye10,

Ok I do see your point and I do agree with you! You are basically claiming that as long as the devil satisfied your needs you would be happy living in hell as it would seem as heaven if every thing was to your satisfaction?

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No, he's saying he's not smart enough to fathom how a country that hasn't had democracy couldn't possibly know what to do if they were given the chance. Perhaps he could do a little research (unlikely) and realize all the countries that do have democracy didn't have it previously. Take for instance most of south or central america, or the eastern block of nations that fought for the right, probably in his lifetime...
Or maybe, he belongs to the house of lords, who thought that the great unwashed could never understand the simple concept of one person, one vote.

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@Ceili,

Quote:

No, he's saying he's not smart enough to fathom how a country that hasn't had democracy couldn't possibly know what to do if they were given the chance

Well, that and that we dont have much evidence that the Egyptians want democracy. They clearly want a say in who leads them, but these are also the same people who were very happy with Mubarak and the dictators who came before him until recently. Mubarak out does not inevitably lead to democracy in. Even if it does we are likely measuring time in decades not years between now and then.

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@hawkeye10,

Quote:

The Pew poll question about democracy is incredibly biased, without doubt significantly overstating positive responses.

Here is the question asked of Muslims, followed by the instructions to the interviewers:

“And which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable; For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.”

(INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: read statements in language of interview, but always read “democracy” in English. Translate “democracy” into local language only if respondent does not understand English term.)

Quote:
EGYPT
Democracy best form of government 59%
Sometimes 22%
dont care 16%
Dont know 2%

(Credit: Pew survey)

Note that the question does not pit democracy against any other type of governing structure, such as a monarchy or theocracy. Instead, it focuses solely on democracy, implying a democratic bias on the part of the interviewers.

Imagine measuring the most popular auto maker in the United States by saying: Please choose from the following options – 1) Ford is preferable to any other car company; 2) in some circumstances, a non-Ford produced car can be preferable, or 3) for someone like me, it doesn’t matter what car company I buy from.

The polling organization that asked such a question would be dismissed as a biased partisan for the Ford company. If Pew truly wants to discover the views of Muslims (or any other group) about various forms of government, it needs a more balanced question.

For Muslims in Egypt, one such question might be: “Which type of government system would you prefer – one where the laws are made by the people and their elected representatives, or one where the laws are made by religious leaders based on their interpretations of the Koran?”

David W. Moore is a Senior Fellow with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a former Vice President of the Gallup Organization and was a senior editor with the Gallup Poll for thirteen years. He is author of The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls (Beacon, 2008; trade paperback edition, 2009). Publishers’ Weekly refers to it as a “succinct and damning critique...Keen and witty throughout. http://www.stinkyjournalism.org/latest-journalism-news-updates-214.php

Even with the pollster biased towards Democracy only 60% prefer it, what ever they define it as because the pollster did not define it. Hardly a slam-dunk. And whether they have the will or the ability to make it happen is a whole nother kettle of fish......

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@hawkeye10,

hawk, If the citizens of a country have never experienced democracy, how do you expect them to vote? Do you think they have full knowledge about all the different forms of government - its pros and cons?

You say "only 60%" prefer it, but that's a majority isn't it? Isn't that in of itself a democratic vote?

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@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

You say "only 60%" prefer it, but that's a majority isn't it? Isn't that in of itself a democratic vote?

the argument is that the 60% is inflated, and no, that is not enough people power to force the demise of the entrenched power which can be counted on to perpetuate the current system with only a change of personalities and atmospherics.

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@hawkeye10,

Does the survey really and this highly abstract dispute matter at all ? We all agree thare have been successful transitions to Democracy; there have also been attempts that sidetracked into authoritarianism; and there are places where the attempt has not yet seriously been made.

It also seems very clear from the discussion to date that you all agree there are myriad local factors that influence the likelihood of a successful transition, but that a substantial fraction of humanity appears to want democratic elements in their governance, and that appears evident in Egypt as well.

All this tells us that it will take skill, patience, wisdom and some good luck on the part of Egyptians and others to have successful transitions to a form of real democratic rule - but that it is certainly possible. For any of us to confidently assert the unknowable future of current events there is foolish in the extreme.

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@georgeob1,

And in Saudia Arabia they can even demonstrate at all any longer and we all love the Saudies because they have us by the short hairs and they know it.

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@georgeob1,

There will be a transition, but what they will shoot for and what they will hit both are not known. I am taking issue with those who assume that Democracy as we know it is what is wanted there. I say assume because no factual basis for this assertion has been presented yet.

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@hawkeye10,

hawk, That's not only a majority, but Egyptians were willing to die for a change into democracy. If luck and the right people engage themselves into a democratic government, I would say Egypt has a very good chance out of the other ME countries attempting the same thing. Many Egyptians are well educated, and they have observed how other democracies have worked. Their desire speaks volumes just by the very fact that they put their lives on the line for that change.

They may not want western type of democracy, but they want freedom and change. Freedom and change sounds more like a democracy than any other type of government.

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@spendius,

spendius wrote:

And in Saudia Arabia they can even demonstrate at all any longer and we all love the Saudies because they have us by the short hairs and they know it.

I think you exaggerate. Their need to sell the petroleum is as great as ours to buy it. (Did you know that the British Agent who tried to establish their primacy with a then emerging Abdul Azzis (Ibn Saud) before WWII was Kim Philby's father?)

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It is Saturday night. Whether you like it or not, it is story time. Feel free to skip over this and/or thumb it down.
A Ben0vent Dictator...
When I got back from VN in 1970 I tried, really tried, to fit in. But it didn't quite work. I stuck out my thumb, and for 5 years I was on the road. Europe, a bit of Asia and then 3 years in Africa, from Cairo to Capetown.
Malawi is a land-locked former British colony with few if any natural resources and low literacy.
It was listed at the time as being one of the top 10 poorest countries in the world.

The president who came in after independence was Hastings Kamuzu Banda, an American trained medical doctor. He became "President for Life" in 1970. He was autocratic but he did, in my mind, get a lot done regarding expanding things like schools and medical clinics.
Sadly, after he died, political corruption set in and AIDs is out of control in Southern Africa.
Democracy is a cool concept but I wonder if it is the best thing.

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@realjohnboy,

Stability is always a big thing, and it is even bigger for peoples whom have been recently traumatized. Democracy does a very poor job of delivering this want....

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@hawkeye10,

And I'll add that Mubarak stayed in power an extra decade almost exclusively by selling himself as the path to stability....those here who assume that Egyptians want democracy can not have been paying attention to reality with-in Egypt, in my opinion.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Democracy is a cool concept but I wonder if it is the best thing.

Perhaps the answer is (at least for those with mathematical inclinations) that many independent factors, economic, social, and political are involved in what we might call a good life. There are no single variable solutions to any such system.,

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

Perhaps the answer is (at least for those with mathematical inclinations) that many independent factors, economic, social, and political are involved in what we might call a good life

Americans tend to be highly ignorant on such matters.....they assume that freedom of choice, the more choice the better, it what makes the good life and what is wanted by most. This in spite of a slew of scientific evidence that excessive choice demises our quality of life and is considered a burden in practice. Just last week there was a study out the shows that those who have the most choice in mates end up the least mated and the least happily mated.

There have been a bazillion studies showing the we do an incredibly poor job of predicting what will make us happy.

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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

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