Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

LABOR has lost some of the ''bounce'' it got from Julia Gillard's ascension but would hold power with a reduced majority and a two-party vote of 52-48 per cent, according to the Age/Nielsen poll.

As speculation mounts on the election date, the poll shows an election now would see a swing of 0.7 per cent against the government on 2007.

The two-party Labor vote has fallen 3 points since the Age poll taken immediately after Ms Gillard became prime minister. But importantly, Labor's primary vote is on 39 per cent, from which the government can win. This is down 8 points from the 47 per cent spike when Ms Gillard became PM, but up from the low of 33 per cent in June under Kevin Rudd. In two-party terms, Labor trailed 47-53 under the last Rudd poll.

The poll has seen Green voters who went to Ms Gillard swing back again - the Greens rose from 8 to 13 per cent.

The Coalition's primary vote is 42 per cent - the same as when Ms Gillard took over and the same as at the 2007 election.

Ms Gillard has a decisive 56-35 per cent lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, slightly better than in her first poll as PM.

When people were then asked which of the three parties had the best asylum seeker policy, the Coalition led on 34 per cent (down 1 point from last month). But in a sign the government seems to be gaining on the issue, the ALP has improved from 19 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 20 per cent.

Most people - 64 per cent, up 11 points - expect a Labor election win.

Labor urged to 'pick sides' on climate change
Updated Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:12am AEST

A new survey of voters suggests Australians still want action on climate change.

The Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) commissioned an Auspoll survey of 1,500 voters.

It found more than half of swinging voters think there is no difference between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott when it comes to trusting them to deliver on climate change.

The poll also found 45 per cent of swinging voters would vote for Labor if Ms Gillard committed to deliver a pollution reduction scheme within the next 12 months. ...<cont>

That's it for the East Timor Solution then ...

On Monday, East Timor's parliament passed a resolution rejecting Australia's proposal to establish a centre for asylum seekers there.

While the resolution was passed unanimously, only 34 of the 65 members of parliament were there for the vote.

Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith says the rejection should not be over-interpreted and discussions between the two countries are continuing.

"Unlike the Australian Parliament, East Timorese ministers do not sit in East Timorese parliament so this is a reflection on those members of the East Timorese parliament at the time and not the government's response," he said.

"The government of East Timor's response remains as it has been over the last few days."

But Mr Smith acknowledged that he expects the resolution to be one factor the government considers.

"I'm sure as would naturally occur, the East Timorese government will take the views of political parties and the political process and the parliament in East Timor into account when it comes to make final decisions," he said.

"But we are very much at a beginning of the process not at the end of the process."

Julia Gillard's special health deal for the west
The Australian
July 13, 2010 12:00AM

JULIA Gillard will offer Western Australia a special deal to win Liberal Premier Colin Barnett's backing for Kevin Rudd's $50bn health reform plan.

The Prime Minister is offering to free the state from having to sign over a third of its GST revenue.

Late on Friday, the Prime Minister put a compromise deal to Mr Barnett to end the standoff with the state Liberal government that threatens the national health plan.

While all of the other states and territories - all of which have Labor governments - would have to hand over one-third of their GST funding, Western Australia would surrender a smaller share to the federal government. The rest would be put into a separate fund to be spent on health, but would still be controlled by Western Australia. ...<cont>

Bogan proof fence
(ABC TV - The Gruen Transfer)

Six states is one too many. What if WA became its own country?

Gillard tipped to call election tomorrow
Updated 2 hours 6 minutes ago

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is likely to visit Governor General Quentin Bryce tomorrow to set an August 28 election date, the ABC understands. ..<cont>

Not exactly, Eorl.
According to 2 polls (on Monday) those disillusioned lefties, who had returned to the ALP fold, defected back to the Greens again.
....

I'd suspect those disaffected lefties might stay with the Greens & give them the balance of power in the senate.

'Honeymoon de Julia'
Source: ABC News
Published: Thursday, July 15, 2010 9:17 AEST
Expires: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 9:17 AEST

Politics and sport collide as Clarke and Dawe give their take on the Tour de France

Poll: Did Julia Gillard go back on a deal with then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to not immediately challenge for the Labor leadership?

No: 4%

Yes: 64%

I don't care: 33%

Total votes: 9599.

Poll closes in 3 days.