Good news Bill! But the Harris thing really buoys me up too ...
I dunno, just checked my email and two panicked emails from moveon and dem party saying that ohio is absolutely neck and neck, get out, do something! 3 hours til polls close!! What they want people to do is call potential voters, so that's not me, but they sounded pretty freaked.
The final TIPP tracking poll has:
Bush 48,6
Kerry 45,3
Nader 0,9
Their VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:
Bush 50,1
Kerry 48,0
Nader 1,1
sozobe wrote:I dunno, just checked my email and two panicked emails from moveon and dem party saying that ohio is absolutely neck and neck, get out, do something! 3 hours til polls close!! What they want people to do is call potential voters, so that's not me, but they sounded pretty freaked.
Of course they did... that's the nature of the beast (that's how sales work). I'd bet that E-mail was agonized over, weeks ago, with the intent of making it sound spontaneous.
Two hours in line . . . there were no conservative operatives there, delaying things, it was just the heaviest turn-out i've ever seen.
Wow!
What'd you think of the touch-screen thingies?
Yeppers Bill, the model for feigned spontaniety goes to George Bush when he made the "final" decision to invade Iraq.
Wow! You've done everyone a service with all your hard work compiling polling data. As a complete political junkie, nothing pleases me more than a thread on which I could literally spend (waste? only according to my wife) hours looking at graphs and numbers.
The final Rasmussen tracking poll has:
Bush 48,8
Kerry 47,4
Their VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:
Bush 50,2
Kerry 48,5
Thanks Steppenwolf! So glad you appreciate it!
OK, here's my final rundown of the polls, ladies and gentlemen.
Listed here are all the pollsters that put out at least one poll the past week. If they published more than one poll (eg the tracking polls), the most recent one is listed. If they made a final projection of the actual vote, then that's what's included below. All the way on the bottom, the average.
CBS/NYT
(poll in the past week)
Bush 47
Kerry 46
Nader 1
ARG
(poll in the past week)
Bush 48
Kerry 48
Nader 1
NBC/WSJ
(poll in the past week)
Bush 48
Kerry 47
Nader 1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
(vote projection)
Bush 49
Kerry 49
Nader 1
ABC/WaPo
(last tracking poll)
Bush 49
Kerry 48
Nader 1
Fox
(last tracking poll)
Bush 46
Kerry 48
Nader 1
Pew
(vote projection)
Bush 51
Kerry 48
Newsweek
(poll in the past week)
Bush 50
Kerry 44
Nader 1
Democracy Corps
(vote projection)
Bush 48,7
Kerry 49,5
Nader 0,6
TIPP
(vote projection)
Bush 50,1
Kerry 48,0
Nader 1,1
Zogby
(last tracking poll)
Bush 48
Kerry 47
Nader 1
GWU/Battleground
(last poll of the last week)
Bush 50
Kerry 46
Nader 0
Marist
(last poll of the past week)
Bush 49
Kerry 50
Nader 0
Rasmussen
(vote projection)
Bush 50,2
Kerry 48,5
Harris
(last poll of the past week, average of telephone and online polls)
Bush 48
Kerry 49
Nader 0,5
Economist/YouGov
(poll in the past week)
Bush 47
Kerry 50
Nader 1
LegerMarketing
(poll in the past week)
Bush 49
Kerry 49
Nader 2
AVERAGE
Bush 48,7
Kerry 47,9
Nader 0,9
Margin: Bush +0,8
And
here's the last of those tables with state-by-state polling averages, courtesy of secureliberty.org (some ravy right wingers site, but the table is good).
They have Bush winning the EV 296 to 242. But in three states worth 37 EVs, the Bush lead is below 1% (WI, OH and IA).
Nimh,
You have done a fine job organizing and presenting this data in a clear, consistent manner over many weeks. I suspect that many of us here are very thankful to you for it.
I am certainly grateful, even though you are very wrong-headed in your political views. (smile)
The waiting now is driving me crazy.
nimh wrote:AVERAGE
Bush 48,7
Kerry 47,9
Nader 0,9
Margin: Bush +0,8
And if you only count this new week's polls, so to say - ergo, only the last polls that were published today or yesterday plus the vote
projections, the average Bush lead decreases to
0,4%.
Which is how you get these here graphs:
sozobe wrote:Wow!
What'd you think of the touch-screen thingies?
We've had them in our precinct for as long as i've lived here--five years . . . they're o.k., but no receipt . . .
Thank you very much, George <smiles back>
You can see how I'm avoiding being driven crazy by the waiting ...
It's the nimh answer: don't know what to do? Make a graph. <grins>
nimh wrote:And
here's the last of those tables with state-by-state polling averages, courtesy of secureliberty.org (some ravy right wingers site, but the table is good).
They have Bush winning the EV 296 to 242. But in three states worth 37 EVs, the Bush lead is below 1% (WI, OH and IA).
What the hell? Did they steal
my secret formula?
I too am very grateful for all your efforts Nimh. By next time you should be syndicated.
And Soz, I thought the voting machines were the bomb. Next step: stick the program in every ATM in the nation and use your own credit card!
Tips hat to Set, and says "good to see you"
Definitely, you've done an amazing service, nimh.
Polls just closed in 6 states, including Georgia.
Buckle your seatbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride...
IN, KY, GA for Bush, VT for Kerry.
