If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Zogby's all over the place. He has Bush up by 6% in FL, but says Bush will lose overall...

Don't know his rationale... Doesn't he have Bush up in OH, too?

From Rabbit Hole Wyoming, Kucinich presss secretary Timberland declares Dennis a winner.

:-)

Lash - I've always thought Ohio would go for Bush, so have been concentrating more on Florida.

Here's the latest I can find on Ohio, though (from my new best friend at Horcerace LOL):

Ohio
Bush: 48.45%
Kerry: 47.42%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 5,614; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Cleveland Plain-Dealer 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31, University of Cincinatti 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 86.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.

From his website, Zogby has Florida a tie.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923

Yep, but ... <grins> ... that means Kerry picks up two votes, and Bush loses two votes, compared to 2000 ...

Plus, in Hart's Location where last time, Bush won by 17 votes to 13, this time the score is ... 15 votes each! Plus one for Nader.

So ... Kerry wins 7% more of the popular vote than Bush!

In Ohio, the last polls in are:

Bush +6 (Zogby)
Bush +2 (Survey USA)
Bush +3 (Fox)
Bush +2 (Strategic Vision)
Bush +0,9 (Univ of Cincinnati)

That's all from yesterday or the day before yesterday. The two days before that still had seen a tie, with Gallup predicting a 4% Kerry win, Mason-Dixon a 2% Bush win and the Columbus Dispatch a tie.

Doesn't look good. Daly quotes Survey USA: "pro-life voters & regular church goers have rallied to the President in final days."

And once again, you dodge the issue.

The fact that some other people, incluuding yourself, take Rasmussen seriously is a disgrace.

To repeat: In 2000, Rasmussen's website-supposedly the website of an impartial poster-had links off it to right wing websites which counted how many people Clinton supposedly had murdered. This was by no means the ONLY rabidly right wing website Rasmussen allowed his page to link to.

His forum was full of right wing nuts posting things like "Bush is the president of the Gody people of America!" surrounding one lone critic.

His only two customers were two right wing publications.

He predicted a landslide for Bush, when the election was one of the closest in history.

Sorry, but saying "I don't think Rasmussen is anything special" dodges the question. He is an OBVIOUS right wing fraud, and to lump him with polls that at least try to be objective means you are going along with the fraud.

Anytime you want to actually try to answer the specifics of what I have raised here is fine with me. You haven't yet.

KW - that Zogby tie prediction is as of yesterday at 5 pm. Someone (not sure who - was waking up) on CNN early this morning said he's now saying Bush is leading by 6 in FL!!

<fingers crossed>

That's probably because Florida has already counted the Absentee ballots, which are largely Military and Expatriate. 1/3 of our votes have been counted already. Not really much of a tell, that.

The RCP graph (which, as a competing graph-maker, I'll add again factors in fewer polls than my graphs do ... ;-) ) now has Kerry within 2% of Bush too: the margin now is 1,7%.



It's clear in this graph that Kerry has the momentum: he's gained over two points since the Mary Cheney episode after the last debate, halving Bush's lead back then. But whether it's enough? Those two+ points took him up from 45% to slightly over 47%; but Bush in the same time has remained completely stable at 48,5-49%.

Just based on this graph I'd put the end result, going on gut feeling, at Bush 49,8% Kerry 48,8%. But I gotta update my own first, later today ... ;-)

In 2000, Zogby, TIPP, Gallup and Pew all were pretty close. Zogby had Gore in the lead by 2%, the others Bush by 2%; the end result was a tie, when you measure it in whole percentage points. CBS thus had been a little closer still: it had given a 1% edge in its last poll. But the one poll that had the elections pegged exactly right was Harris.

Harris did two polls, then. A conventional phone poll and an "interactive" poll. They both showed the same thing: the race at a tie. Gore 47%, Bush 47%.

So what does Harris say now? Yesterday, it again has two polls out. And, err ... they differ.

survey of 3,926 likely voters conducted online.
Kerry 49%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%
Badnarik 1%

survey of 1,092 likely voters conducted by telephone.
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
Nader 2%

And just to ramp up the suspense some more,

Wow! All the "big" states are done by 8:00. We could have a clear winner by 9:00 (that is, assuming Texas votes as I expect).

Wowsa - there's snow predicted for TX - seems kind of ominous......

KW, see if you can find anywhere I have indicated I consider Rasmussen anything other than one among many. The point is not partisanship, but comparison of performance. Some are better, more often more accurate, some less so, all apart from partisanship. Nowhere have I indicated anything else.

I've long been predicting a Bush win, but I've never been so unsure of that as now (not because the election is upon us, but because of the data and trending I have been seeing).

I hadn't wanted to say anything because soz would claim I jinxed it, but I remembered that I don't cog to superstitious stuff...

Here's to some hope.

It's hard to see Rasmussen as inserting partisanship into his polls, too, when often he has been one who has Kerry ahead when most of the others still give Bush the edge.

D'oh!

You would not BELIEVE how superstitious I am right now. I read that Kerry keeps a four-leaf clover in one pocket, that he got right before things turned around in the primaries, and a buckeye in the other pocket, and I approve wholeheartedly.

I put some special tea in the little goblet in front of my little brass Ganesh, fer chrissakes.

New line out!



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