If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

47% approval! How's that Christmas tree look these days? Does it have a really big fat star that hopefully even has a little tinsel hanging off of it (as the lines cross and keep going...)?

Has there been the expected upward tick for Bush since the Iranian government joined Khadafy in announcing their support of the incumbent?

blatham

That's ok. We'll take Iowa, and New Mexico....and...Pennsylvania.... and Michigan...
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Bush edges ahead in Iowa, vies in 'blue' states
New polling shows Kerry locked in statistical tie
with president in Michigan, Pennsylvania and WisconsinBy Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 6:35 p.m. ET Oct. 21,

2004WASHINGTON - New poll data released Thursday suggest that President Bush is in a strong position to win one state that Al Gore carried in 2000, Iowa, and is putting pressure on Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry in five other states Gore won, with Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes the biggest prize of those five.

In Iowa, the new MSNBC/Knight Ridder poll shows Bush with a 49-43 percent lead over Kerry, with six percent of voters undecided.

Gore carried Iowa by 4,144 votes four years ago.

In New Mexico, which Gore carried by a mere 366 votes, Bush leads Kerry 49-44 percent with six percent undecided.

Meanwhile in Michigan, a state Gore won by more than 200,000 votes, Kerry and Bush are in a statistical tie, with Kerry at 47 percent, Bush at 46 percent and six percent undecided.

Neither candidate has made the state a personal priority in the last two weeks. The last time Kerry campaigned in Michigan was on Sept. 15; the last time Bush appeared there was Oct. 6.

Mason-Dixon did its previous round of polling for MSNBC and Knight Ridder newspapers in Michigan in mid-September, Kerry stood at 47 percent, with Bush at 41 percent and 10 percent undecided. Bush has thus gained five points in about a month.

As of Oct. 8, according to the Michigan Campaign Finance Network, a nonpartisan research group, Kerry and his supporting groups had outspent Bush and his allies by one-third, $16 million to $12 million, for broadcast television advertising in Michigan.

Veteran Michigan analyst Bill Ballenger, the editor of Inside Michigan Politics, said, "The idea that Kerry has this wrapped up in Michigan is baloney. He personally has not spent much time campaigning in Michigan; he's given it short shrift."

As for the statistical tie in the poll data, Ballenger said, "I'm surprised, but I'm not sure I ought to be surprised."

It would be exceedingly difficult for Kerry to win the presidency without carrying Michigan, which has 17 electoral votes and which not gone Republican in a presidential election since the elder George Bush won it in 1988.

Bush a frequent Pennsylvania visitor
In Pennsylvania, which Gore carried by more than 200,000 votes, Kerry and Bush are also locked in a statistical tie, with Kerry at 46 percent, Bush at 45 percent. Eight percent said they were undecided.

Terry Madonna, Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., said he thinks Kerry will still manage to win Pennsylvania in the end.

"I think the last-minute Democratic push in the big cities probably gives Kerry a couple of percentage points. Bush needs a two- to three-percentage point lead going into the election" in order to win Pennsylvania, Madonna said.

The last GOP candidate to carry Pennsylvania was the elder Bush in 1988.

Bush campaigned in Downingtown, Philadelphia, and Hershey, Pa., on Thursday and will speak in Wilkes-Barre on Friday. Since becoming president, Bush has made 40 trips to Pennsylvania, more visits than to any other state.

That, Madonna noted, "is making Kerry spend a lot of time and money here in Pennsylvania. He's playing on Kerry's turf."

One factor Madonna pointed to that may weigh in Kerry's favor in Pennsylvania: a large number of newly registered college students "who seem to be more for Kerry than for Bush" and who strategically have chosen to vote in Pennsylvania, rather than in their home states of New York and Connecticut, states Kerry will likely win easily.

On Friday, Kerry will bring the battle to Bush turf by campaign in two states Bush carried in 2000, Nevada and Colorado.

In two other battleground states, Oregon and Wisconsin, Mason-Dixon polling also found a statistical tie. In Wisconsin, each candidate drew 45 percent, with Ralph Nader getting one percent and nine percent undecided.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the polls from Oct. 15 through Oct. 18. A total of 625 likely voters in each state were interviewed by telephone. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Another new poll, by the Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota, also found a statistical tie in Wisconsin, with Bush at 48 percent, Kerry at 47 percent and Nader at 1.7 percent. That poll interviewed 623 likely voters and had a margin of error of four percentage points.

These findings make it all the more important for Kerry to hold Pennsylvania, where former President Clinton is scheduled to campaign with him Monday, and to try to take away at least one Bush state, such as Ohio or Florida.
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Tightening.

Doing what I can about Ohio.

Oh and can it tighten? Tighten from what? It's been way close with occasional Bush leads for a while now, so tightening from that is in Kerry's favor if anything.

If you mean those specific states, other states are going in the other direction -- it's a giant too-close-to-call fingernail-nibbling mess. Barring a major development from either campaign, positive or negative, nobody's gonna know nothing until all the votes are tallied (and sure hope they know then...)

(That rant was directed at myself as much as anyone else, since I have another 12 days of this to endure... ack...)

Tightening from pretty damn tight.

There is no daylight now...

Yeah, that lack-of-daylight thing follows Rove around.

Tightening? Guess that depends on how you define "Is"

WaPo Tracking poll: Bush 51%, Kerry 45%

Mason-Dixon via MSNBC: Bush edges ahead in Iowa, vies in 'blue' states



Way to go Kerry!!! Keep it up!

Round up for week 42 (data from Oct 11-17):

Only 3-way races, likely voters if available, compared to week before if available

CBS/NYT:
Bush 47 (-1)
Kerry 45 (no ch.)

NBC/WSJ:
Bush 48
Kerry 48

CNN/Gallup:
Bush 52 (+4)
Kerry 44 (-5)

ABC/WaPo (week average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 49.3 (-0.7)
Kerry 47.2 (+0.8)

Pew:
Bush 47
Kerry 47

Newsweek:
Bush 50
Kerry 44

Democracy Corps (average of subsequent polls within week):
Bush 47.5 (-0.5)
Kerry 49 (no ch.)

TIPP (week average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 47.7 (+0.7)
Kerry 44.7 (+0.7)

Zogby/Reuters (week average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 46.1 (+1.0)
Kerry 44.6 (-0.7)

GWU Battleground Poll:
Bush 49 (no ch.)
Kerry 46 (no ch.)

Time:
Bush 48 (+2)
Kerry 46 (+1)

Rasmussen week-by-week:
Bush 48.4 (no ch.)
Kerry 45.8 (-0.5)

Harris (average of results two different LV screens):
Bush 49.5
Kerry 44.5

The Economist:
Bush 46 (-1)
Kerry 47 (no ch.)

Total: 13 pollsters
Average lead margin:
Bush +2.3%
That's 1,0% better than the week before

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Round up for week 43 thus far (data from Oct 18->):

Same criteria as above

ABC/WaPo (average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 50.8 (+1.5)
Kerry 46 (-1.2)

Fox:
Bush 49
Kerry 42

AP/Ipsos:
Bush 46
Kerry 49

Democracy Corps:
Bush 47 (-0.5)
Kerry 50 (+1)

TIPP (week average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 47.5 (-0.2)
Kerry 45.5 (+0.8)

Zogby/Reuters (week average of daily tracking polls):
Bush 46 (-0.1)
Kerry 45.5 (+0.9)

Marist:
Bush 49
Kerry 48

The Economist:
Bush 46 (no ch.)
Kerry 48 (+1)


Preliminary Total: 8 pollsters
Average lead margin:
Bush +0.8%
That's 1,5% worse than the week before

Here's the graph for the averages:

<looks up>

So yes, Timber, I think that qualifies as "tightening", nationally.

This back and forth thing seems interminable. One wishes it done with and the civil war begun in earnest.

If you're wondering why my graph looks different from the RealClearPolitics one:

- They don't include some polls (Democracy Corps, The Economist)

- Of the tracking polls, they include always the last one, I believe, whereas I calculate the average of all of one week's results and use that. (For Rasmussen I use their week-by-week data).

- My graph goes per numbered week (Monday through Sunday), whereas theirs is always updated for the past seven days.

Can't think of any other reason. All the polls they use, I've included too.

Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November
By Tom Ball
10/20/04

This election is not just any old presidential election. To Progressives, it's a matter of life and death.

It will be the difference between global respect for America and multilateral cooperation or increased anti-Americanism and never-ending, preemptive unilateral war...the difference between American values of civil liberty and freedom or curbs on inalienable rights and invasions of privacy...the difference between a future of hope, health, safety, peace and prosperity or one of isolation, violence, debt, and fear.

And this brings me to the reason that we will win in November...

...because we have to.

This 'do or die' perception is what is going to drive progressives and moderates to the polls in record numbers to end the madness. This is why the traditionally apathetic 18-24 year old demographic (Also known as 'Future Casualties of Bush Wars') is going to put down their cell phones long enough to pull the lever for Kerry.

So Who's Winning?

Recently, a couple nationwide polls have shown Bush with a substantial lead, including some nonsensical outlier from Fox News and an equally unrealistic poll from Gallup which showed likely voters favoring Bush by 8 points. What's going on?

Fear not. It is all a grand load of garbage!



Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.
And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters.

[...]

So how do you go from a 3 point lead among registered voters to an 8 point lead among likely voters? By projecting that 89 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 81 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote. But as we know, this is totally unrealistic.


Anyway, a Democracy Corps Poll released concurrent to the ridiculous Gallup poll showed Kerry with a 3 point lead.

Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps' final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.
Also...

* CBS News/NYT (10/19): Kerry 47%, Bush 47% among likely voters (Bush approval at 44%)

* NBC News/WSJ (10/19): Kerry 48%, Bush 48%

* Zogby, the most accurate pollster of the last two presidential elections has the race exactly tied at 45% with 7% still undecided. (Remember. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger. More on that below.)

The national polls however, are just one part of an extensive mosaic of influences on this election. And you might be heartened to know that virtually all the rest favor John Kerry.

Continue reading to discover the...

Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November


http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php

Of all the charts, I find one to be head and shoulders above the rest in terms of disgusting. This shouldn't be necessary. This one is flat out obscene.

Interesting that this assertion comes without further argument why and how we "know" this.

Problem is, internals of various polls show that while most Bush voters are for him, many Kerry voters are merely against the other; more Kerry than Bush voters say they could still be persuaded to vote for the other guy; Kerry voters are on average less enthusiastic about voting for their guy; Kerry voters include more first-time voters (who are traditionally more likely to flake out in the end); Kerry voters consist to a larger part of demographics that generally are less reliable voters (eg, the 18-24 olds, low-income families, etc) while Bush voters include target groups (married men and women of 35-55, higher income groups) that almost always turn out in greater numbers.

I mean, I hate to trot this all out, but there's nothing obvious about how "totally unrealistic" it is to assume that a greater percentage of those who express a general preference for Bush will also actually come out on election day.

(Thanks for the new graph, nimh. .08. Wow.)

Yeah, looks good.

Mind you, poll-wise it's just mid-week now - there'll be polls published with data gathered during this week up to next week Tuesday, Wednesday. I expect another half dozen still, plus the tracking ones will change as the data for the rest of the week comes in for them. So the number is probably still gonna change. The last "solid" number in the graph remains for now that 2.3% average lead for Bush of last week.

Still, though - of those 8 polls out so far on this week, 3 showed a move towards Bush and 5 towards Kerry.

I go back and forth between wanting the elections to be OVER already and panic that there is so little time left. I'm doing stuff, kinda, but I don't think I'm convincing legions and I WANT to convince legions. Or at least, like, do scads of paperwork for other legion-convincers.

Just wanna say, Soz, whoever wins whichever election, what counts is the folks out there makin' democracy work. Be proud of what you're doin'. Makes me proud to know folks like you, agree with 'em or not.