If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

On the other hand,

Daly's ECB has it: Bush 264, Kerry 233

and David Wissing has it: Bush 270 Kerry 268

Daily tracking polls:

Zogby:
Bush 44 (-1)
Kerry 47 (+1)

Rasmussen:
Bush 49.0 (-0.5)
Kerry 45.4 (-0.1)
(That's the second consecutive day Bush lost, but also the sixth consecutive day Kerry lost. )

By the way, georgeob1 (just to avoid misunderstandings), I am not a journalist myself, but I do work for a media NGO - just adding that so noone thinks later that I pretended to be a journalist or something ... ;-)

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What's Wednesday night's format?

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David Wissing's page has Ohio as a tie. That's so huge.... all those EV's... (drooling)

And the Daily ECB link has michigan leaning towards Bush. Wha? That contradicts ALL the polls.

Are they using a methodology that I don't understand? I freely admit that this is a likely possibility...

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

And the Daily ECB link has michigan leaning towards Bush. Wha? That contradicts ALL the polls.

Huh? <goes look>

No, it has Michigan leaning Kerry. Perhaps his use of colours (red=Kerry blue=Bush) had you tricked for a moment there?

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Cyclops, I think there are too many mixed messages coming out of those polls, and their reliability is highly questionable based on the flip-flops depending on who takes the poll. Unless there's a remarkable change after Wednesday, we'll just have to wait until November 2. It's too close to call.

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sozobe wrote:

What's Wednesday night's format?

Podiums and Moderator, topic to be Domestic Policy.

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Nimh,

You are right. Damn them for switching the traditional colors!

Cycloptichorn

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CI,

I agree, along with the other millions of youths like me who are never polled. Watch out for us!

Cycloptichorn

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nimh wrote:

By the way, georgeob1 (just to avoid misunderstandings), I am not a journalist myself, but I do work for a media NGO - just adding that so noone thinks later that I pretended to be a journalist or something ... ;-)

If I owned a media outlet, or ran the government agency, I would quickly hire you.

I don't, so you will have to continue making it on your own.

(I would use an "emoticon" or two here, but, for some reason, when I try one the program freezes up.)

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Thanks, timber. Podium and moderator, yay!

How are questions selected?

Has the latest Reuters/ Zogby poll already been mentioned? Kerry in the lead by 3%!!

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/politics/politics-campaign-poll.html

Quote:

The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll.

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nimh wrote:

By the way, georgeob1 (just to avoid misunderstandings), I am not a journalist myself, but I do work for a media NGO - just adding that so noone thinks later that I pretended to be a journalist or something ... ;-)

too bad, nimh. even in our limited forum here, you have done an amazing job of presenting an unbelievable amount of info. the "data" is comprehensive and your "op-ed" is thoughtful and laid out in a cohesive way.

you deserve an award, dude. :wink:

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Just read this.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/11/politics/campaign/11film.html

Major points I see are:

1.) Contrary to timber's take on how few and how unimportant the markets are that will actually see it, this says:

Quote:

Those officials said the documentary would pre-empt regular night programming, including prime time, on its stations, which include affiliates for all six of the major broadcast networks in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Major broadcast networks, swing states, prime time. The effect no longer looks so negligible.

2.) This seems to use the it's news no it's an ad no it's news thing yet again:

Quote:

Because Sinclair is defining the documentary - which will run commercial free - as news, it is unclear if it will be required by federal regulations to provide Mr. Kerry's campaign with equal time to respond.

-snip-

"Stolen Honor" was produced by Carlton Sherwood, formerly a reporter with The Washington Times. His Web site says he received no money from any political party or campaign but got initial funding from Pennsylvania veterans.

The documentary has been distributed by mail order and via streaming Internet connections. Mr. Hyman said Sinclair was not paying for the right to broadcast it.

I understand the points being made about owners having a right to slant the news in ways large and small. This, however, seems to be teetering on the edge of outright propaganda -- the same as the Medicare "news" item that already got them in trouble and the education "news" item that I just started a thread on.

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Dookie started a new therad right about when I posted the above, same topic:

http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=35828

We can continue there and leave this for bookie stuff. (How 'bout that Reuters/Zogby poll?)

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sozobe wrote:

Just read this.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/11/politics/campaign/11film.html

hi soz. link heads to sign up page. if you get time, would you cut and paste the article?

clearly, there is something not right about this. yes, broadcasters have a right to send out what they want, but to put out a doc as news in order to deny the same amount of time to the opposing view is just more bull$hit from the usual suspects.

god, this is just getting so fubar-ed. it really does make me that more intent on doing what i can to remove the gop from the white house until sane people reclaim that party.

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georgeob1 wrote:

If I owned a media outlet, or ran the government agency, I would quickly hire you.

I don't, so you will have to continue making it on your own.

(I would use an "emoticon" or two here, but, for some reason, when I try one the program freezes up.)

<smiles>

I'm flattered. <nods>

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Sozobe, there you are! I missed you for a while, you seemed to have dissappeared after, well after the last debate!

Greatly missed your input, not least in the media discussion we had up here. Good to see you back, even if it was only after a few days' absence.

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New USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll. 1,015 national adults, October 9-10, 2004 (compared with Oct 1-3). LINK

All kinds of good news in here.

Likely voters, 3-way (Nader support based only on residents from states where Nader is on the ballot):
Kerry 49 (no ch.)
Bush 48 (-1)
Nader 1 (no ch.)

Registered voters, 3-way (idem):
Kerry 48 (+1)
Bush 48 (-1)
Nader 1 (no ch.)

National adults, 3-way (idem):
Kerry 48 (+2)
Bush 46 (-3)
Nader 2 (+1)

Likely voters, 2-way:
Kerry 50 (+1)
Bush 48 (-1)

Registered voters, 2-way:
Kerry 48 (no ch.)
Bush 48 (-1)

National adults, 3-way
Kerry 48 (+1)
Bush 47 (-2)

Bush job approval:
Approve 47 (-3)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

Favourability ratings
Bush
Favourable 51 (-2)
Unfavourable 46 (+1)

Kerry
Favourable 52 (no ch.)
Unfavourable 44 (+1)

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last Friday's debate: John Kerry or George W. Bush?

2nd presidential debate:
Kerry 45%
Bush 30%
Equally 10%

1st presidential debate:
Kerry 57%
Bush 25%
Equally 5%

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Hiya nimh!

Yeah, had *serious* connection woes. Long story. Seems to be over now (knock on wood!).

I posted my reaction to the 2nd presidential debate (and you KNOW how much it killed me to have to pace and wait to talk about that one) on Montana's thread.

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End-of-week update of graph (including correction of average graph's timeline):

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_average_oct2.gif

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry_3way.gif

http://home.wanadoo.nl/anepiphany/images/bush-kerry.gif

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sozobe wrote:

Hiya nimh!

Yeah, had *serious* connection woes. Long story. Seems to be over now (knock on wood!).

I posted my reaction to the 2nd presidential debate (and you KNOW how much it killed me to have to pace and wait to talk about that one)

Yeah, I was afraid for a moment that you'd suddenly gotten discouraged or something - but I could hardly imagine so!

I did some err, call it liveblogging on that thread during the debate ... was fun. I dont think I'm gonna stay up for the next one tho - the last two have totally screwed up my already rather pathetic attempts at having a normal day/night rhythm. These debates start when its four or something here, you know, and if you pick up a bit of post-debate discussion its seven before you get to bed ... not good.

You know C-Span broadcast a reenactment of the Lincoln-Douglas debate, and some blogger did "liveblogging" on that - too funny. She didnt make much of it, but as a concept - hilarious.

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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

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