If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

There ... are ya happy now? LOL ...

Actually, weak excuse, but real; I'd meant to include Newsweek, CNN/Gallup, and CBS/NYT ... after workin' up the list, chasin and checkin' the links, I neglected to add 'em in to the final-edit Notepad copy before I cut-'n-pasted it in.

But for what it's worth, their poll has

41% voting for "Edwards won",
28% voting for "Cheney won", and
31% voting for "Tie".

Edwards also greatly improved opinions of him among these voters, and Cheney also made some gains. Nearly half of these uncommitted voters said their opinion of Edwards has changed for the better as a result of the debate. Just 14 percent said they have a lower opinion of Edwards after tonight [..]

As for the Vice President, 32 percent of uncommitted viewers said that their image of Cheney changed for the better as a result. Fifteen percent say their opinion of Cheney got worse. But a majority, 53 percent, did not change their opinions. [..]

Uncommitted voters came away from the debate believing that both John Edwards and Dick Cheney could be an effective president if needed.

The North Carolina Senator is better liked among uncommitted voters than the Vice President. Eighty-two percent of men and 72 percent of women of this group of voters said they would like Edwards personally, while half of both men and women said Cheney was likeable.

Eighty-two percent of tonight's uncommitted viewers said Edwards shared their priorities for the country, nearly twice the number who said this about Cheney. The Vice President did receive higher scores on leadership qualities from tonight's uncommitted viewers, but majorities said both candidates had strong qualities of leadership. [..]

THE DEBATE: MOMENT BY MOMENT

Uncommitted voters in this poll graded the candidates with a sliding scale using their remote controls during the debate. In the real-time evaluations of tonight's debate, John Edwards scored well with uncommitted voters when he talked about the Administration not capturing Osama bin Laden, and in discussing the war in Iraq, when he critiqued the Administration for not having enough people on the ground to secure that nation and hold an election. On other foreign policy matters, Edwards did well when he talked of putting pressure on Iran and the Saudis in order to help make Israel safe.

The Vice President did especially well - and especially well with women - when he talked about the events in Afghanistan and the opening of schools there and the upcoming vote. Cheney scored some of his best ratings when he talked about international sanctions and their effect on Libya and other nations.

When Edwards described his account of Cheney's tenure at Halliburton and that company's dealings with Iran, he registered very high with the uncommitted voters. Other than that exchange, neither candidate did especially well when they attacked each other directly.

Both candidates scored high points when they talked about the need to limit lawsuit and keep frivolous lawsuits out of the system, Cheney when he mentioned that doctors were being driven out of practice - especially OB-GYNs, which gave him very high ratings with women. Edwards did well when he said lawsuits must be limited and when he talked of his own experience fighting in the courts.

On the tax issue, Edwards scored very high points when he said there was a moral responsibility to keep poor children out of poverty, and when he said that the Bush Administration was for outsourcing jobs.

... Current Price: Rep 55.7 Dem 44.0

Random variation or are we winning the post-debate-debate?

Random variation or are we winning the post-debate-debate?

[.

While Cheney's lying ought to affect voter's decisions in my fair and balanced opinion, I wouldn't bet on it if I was trading in that prediction market. The audience of the lie is much broader than the audience of its debunking, so the debunking probably won't swing many votes.

That Edwards, knowing how gullible the public can be, kept hammering away at the fact that Bush/Cheney linked 9/11 and Saddam Hussein. They have not done that before and are not doing that now.

Listening carefully to the debate and taking notes, in my opinion there were more, or at least as many, statements that could be debunked on the Edwards side than what the media is asserting for the Cheney side.

I thought this a bit harsh and unlike you. What lies?

That Edwards, knowing how gullible the public can be, kept hammering away at the fact that Bush/Cheney linked 9/11 and Saddam Hussein. They have not done that before and are not doing that now. The media is avoiding any comment on that despite Edwards repeating it several times.

I thought this a bit harsh and unlike you. What lies?