If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Didn't Teresa Heinz say Kerry was sorta gross today. ....she doesn't like sex with him, or something. My daughter was laughing about some weird statement...

Do you think a candidate's wife can really influence the polls and/or the vote in any way, however?

Foxfyre wrote

Quote:

Do you think a candidate's wife can really influence the polls and/or the vote in any way, however?

Logic would tell me no. However, you must remember there is a large politically ignorant segment of the voting public in the US. Consider this likeability not issues may be one of the deciding factor in this election.

Funny, my mother said the same thing to me on the phone last night - she believed that more women would vote for Bush b/c he's more 'likeable,' no matter what his policies are.

I have a hard time understanding this point of view - I thought the issues were important... but in reality it's more like a popularity contest..

Cycloptichorn

Just out - the 1st of this cycle's Battleground Polls, Sept 20 '04: Bush 46%, Kerry 39%

federalreview.com :
IS BUSH'S SUPPORT SOFT? ARE UNDECIDEDS GOING TO BREAK FOR THE PRESIDENT?

Bush's lead in the Composite Poll's meta-analysis of national polls holds steady this week, up a mere 0.1 point over his lead from last week. In fact, Bush's bounce from the convention of 5-6 points has remained steady and currently shows no signs of weakening, right as we prepare for Kerry's next big opportunity to move the numbers - this Thursday's debate. [..] Bush leads in the traditional battleground states by 2.8%. Bush leads in the 2000 Bush states by 12%. Kerry leads in the 2000 Gore states by 8%.

There's something interesting in the polls over the last three weeks while Bush has held his lead. While Bush has lead by double digits in some polls, FoxNews has shown the race closer since the convention with Bush leads coming in lower than the average of other polls, by 2 points on Sept 8 and by 3.4 this week. And in each poll, FoxNews also reports a greater number of undecided voters. Could it be that pollsters who push "leaners" to answer get better numbers for Bush than pollsters who are content to find undecided voters show a closer race? So, I reviewed all polls for the last three weeks and compared the number of undecided voters to the level of support for each of Bush and Kerry. As you seen in the below chart, as undecideds decrease in a poll, both Bush and Kerry's support increases - as you might expect. But Bush's support increases more rapidly. Ranging from a low of about 45 if there are 12% undecided to a projected high of 53% with no undecideds (projection is a least squares linear progression, represented by the line in the below chart). Meanwhile, Kerry's support ranges from about 42 to 45, a much smaller increase.

What does this tell us about undecideds and how they may break? Well, the Republican spin is clear - the undecideds are showing a tendency to break heavily for the President. But the spin you might expect from Democrats is probably more accurate and more relevant to campaigns trying to figure out where the race stands today. "Leaners" are both less solidly behind their candidate and, probably, less likely to vote. Thus, a greater proportion of Bush's voters in the latest polls may be soft.

While that should give some hope to Democrats, they should still be concerned that Bush still holds a lead even when poll victims aren't pressed for whom they lean toward. At the same time, Democrats can hope that this soft support can be turned. And the debates will give them that opportunity - while Bush tries to solidify the "Leaners'" support.