If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

nimh wrote:

... They will hear Kerry speak and debate at length ...

No doubt.

I'm actually sorta countin' on that. :wink: Laughing

There will be 3 debates, as was announced earlier today. The scheduling and details are still "being discussed".

0 Replies

nimh wrote:

OK who started on the swift vets again? Fess up.

that'd be timber

0 Replies

I'll take nimh's hint and respond to timber's post on another thread...

0 Replies

I thought we had cut the debates to two.
<scowl>

0 Replies

ehBeth wrote:

nimh wrote:
OK who started on the swift vets again? Fess up.

that'd be timber

Seems it was ... sorry 'bout that ... I think I popped that particular response into the wrong thread.

0 Replies

Nimh writes:

Quote:

Talking of which - I think I missed it - I know the committee that proposes such things proposed three debates - did the WH say yet whether it accepts the invitation

I don't think the decision has been made yet. Carter only allowed one debate though Reagan wanted several. Clinton allowed two debates against Dole when Dole asked for four. The incumbant usually has the most to lose in a political debate no matter what the subject matter or format. I suspect Bush will agree to two debates but I could get fooled.

Who wins the debate is often determined by whether people listen to it on the radio, watch it on TV, or read the transcript in the morning paper. Most people who listened, didn't watch, the Kennedy/Nixon debate thought Nixon won. Those who watched largely favored Kennedy. It think it was the same between Bush and Clinton in 1982--those who listened favored Bush; those who watched favored Clinton.

Bush and Gore were equally bad whether on TV or on radio and neither Bush nor Kerry sound good on radio - do maybe some better on TV though not consistently.

0 Replies

3 Debates

0 Replies

Mistake.

0 Replies

We all make 'em Embarrassed

0 Replies

Heh, Lash, it makes me think of our discussions about how debates are a disadvantage for the pres, wonder why he chose three?

As for the election; there's still a looooooong way to go, and Bush's numbers, I believe, are more susceptible to rises/drops depending on the news, if simply for the fact that as the sitting prez he's in the news far more often.

This is either gonna help him out big time or hurt him big time. Again I am forcibly reminded of the fourth branch of our government, the media....

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Just out - the 1st of this cycle's Battleground Polls, Sept 20 '04: Bush 46%, Kerry 39% (Download note: MS Word Document)

A striking internal:

Quote:

When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be...
Very conservative 19%
Somewhat conservative 40%
MODERATE (DNR) 3%
Somewhat liberal 28%
Very liberal 6%
UNSURE/DK (DNR) 5%

Well regarded, the Battleground Polls are run by Republican Ed Goeas and Democrat Celinda Lake. The bipartisan nature of the organization renders the poll's results relatively uninfluenced by bias. Details from this poll will be available via the customary media links in short order.

A further note of possible interest; when polling Presidential Preference, the Battleground methodology is to ask the open-ended question "Who would you vote for?" as opposed to offering a list of candidates from which to choose.

0 Replies

After looking at a lot of polls, I was particularly impressed with this one that very carefully avoided questions that could prompt a specific answer. I may have overlooked it, but I don't recall seeing an instruction to rotate the order in which options for Bush and Kerry were offered....I mean ask about Bush first to one person polled and then ask about Kerry first to the next person polled, etc.

Thanks Timber. It's running really close still I think.

0 Replies

Rotating of options is SOP for polls, Fox ... just about always has been.

0 Replies

I hope you're right. Like I said, I've participated in some pretty blatantly leading polls, but I'm satisfied this one isn't one of those.

0 Replies

Foxfyre wrote:

After looking at a lot of polls, I was particularly impressed with this one that very carefully avoided questions that could prompt a specific answer. I may have overlooked it, but I don't recall seeing an instruction to rotate the order in which options for Bush and Kerry were offered....I mean ask about Bush first to one person polled and then ask about Kerry first to the next person polled, etc.

The Polling Report page on the Bush/Kerry question often has the exact question that was asked.

As you'll see, most every poll has the "names rotated" or "options rotated" - CBS/NYT, ABC/WaPo, CNN/USAToday, LA Times, Newsweek, Time, NPR, Pew, ARG, Gallup, Fox, IBD/CSM, ICR, the whole alphabet soup, they all do it.

0 Replies

Okay cool. That's a good thing. Smile

0 Replies

Quote:

MASON-DIXON Poll: Bush leads Kerry in six key states
Published 9/20/2004 5:20 PM

WASHINGTON, Sept. 20 (UPI) -- George Bush leads John Kerry in six key states the incumbent won in 2000, a Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll revealed Monday.

Bush tops Kerry in Arizona by 50 percent to 39 percent; in West Virginia by 54-44; in Missouri by 48-41; in Nevada by 50-45; in New Hampshire by 49-40; and in Ohio by 49-42 ...

Of interest here is that all 6 reported leads are well outside the claimed 4% MOE; the average of the 6 works out to 9%, or more than twice the MOE, while the smallest leads, Missouri and Ohio at 7% each, are only 2 points off the average. Notable too is that in each of the individual state poll internals, an average of over 70% of those claiming intent to vote for Bush say they will do so because they "Really Like Him", with an average of fewer than 10% choosing "Dislike Other Candidate", while those saying they will vote for Kerry because they "Really Like Him" average a bit less than 40% and nearly the same percentage choose "Dislike Other Candidate".

In a related article, MSNBC proclaims: Kerry under pressure on Democratic turf, Polls show him tied with Bush in Pa.; behind in Iowa, Ore., N.M.

I would think the Pennsylvania tie perhaps the most sinister recent indicator for Kerry.

All in all, if Bush's momentum does not slacken abruptly and if Kerry's prospects do not surge sharply upward in the relatively near-term, within about the next week or so, by the time the first debate airs, scheduled for the evening of Sept 30, viewer interest might well fall short of expectations. CBS, slated to run regular programming in the timeslot, could, in a wonderfully ironic twist, find themselves benefitting from Kerry's misfortune.

0 Replies

Didn't Teresa Heinz say Kerry was sorta gross today. ....she doesn't like sex with him, or something. My daughter was laughing about some weird statement...

ACH! I'll go look.

0 Replies

She said---in romantic situations, he "leads with his head...", and is not very sexy or romantic, or something to that effect.

Why doesn't she just cut his penis off on the 6 O'Clock News? She's HORRIBLE!

0 Replies

Tuh-RAY-zaah is quite the cutup. The Candidate's Wife is becoming reknowned for her snappy quips. I don't doubt her performances have played a part in putting her husband where he is today Mr. Green

Maybe this'll do a little to boost the morale of some: Huge Kerry Lead In Iowa Poll

Meanwhile, a slightly different perspective is offered by this

Quote:

Yahoo! Asia: US Presidential Poll Update Summary

Tuesday September 21, 8:15 AM
Presidential Polls Glance
Results of recent polls on the presidential race. Listed above each set of results is the name of the organization that conducted the poll, the dates, the number interviewed, whether it was adults, registered voters (RV) or likely voters (LV) and the margin of error (MoE). Results might not total 100 percent because of rounding.

IOWA (Gore won in 2000 by 0.3 percentage points)

CNN-USA Today-Gallup, Sept. 16-19, 631, MoE+/-4

(August results from CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll in parentheses)

_Bush-Cheney, 50 percent (45)

_Kerry-Edwards, 44 percent (51)

_Nader-Camejo, 2 percent (2)

_Unsure, 4 percent (4)

MICHIGAN (Gore won in 2000 by 5.2 percentage points)

Epic-MRA, 610 LV, Sept 15-19, MoE+/-4

(Results from early August Epic-MRA poll in parentheses)

_Kerry-Edwards, 48 percent (49)

_Bush-Cheney, 44 percent (42)

_Nader-Camejo, 2 percent (3)

_Unsure, 6 percent (6)

TENNESSEE (Bush won in 2000 by 3.8 percentage points)

Mason-Dixon for The Tennesseean of Nashville and the Chattanooga Times Free Press; Sept. 11-14, 625 LV, MoE +/-4

Bush-Cheney,53 percent

Kerry-Edwards, 37 percent

Nader-Camejo, 1 percent

Unsure, 9 percent

Kerry forges on.

0 Replies

If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know