If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Says you.

And george, there is more to life than politics.

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Says me, and a tidy little percentage of voters polled...

Smile

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No, I was says-youing regarding your analysis thereof.

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has George Bush EVER had an approval rating at 50% or greater in the past year?

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sozobe wrote:

And george, there is more to life than politics.

Soz -- I agree completely. However little of it shows up here in the politcs forum.

It does appear that Nimh's sense of optimism, at least as it is affected by his estimate of Kerry'sprospects, has been waning a bit lately.

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dyslexia wrote:

has George Bush EVER had an approval rating at 50% or greater in the past year?

39%, currently.

That is one craptacular approval rating.

And more significantly, the reluctance of the corporate media to seize on what is the clear narrative of the election right now -- that incumbent Bush is in serious trouble -- amazes me.

I'm not sure if it would be a good or bad thing for the Kerry campaign if they did, but nonetheless when a sitting president consistently polls below 50%, and is generally behind in national popular and electoral vote analyses, the failure of the damned liberal media to start up the "Is Bush Going to Be a One Termer?" mantra is truly strange.

Oh well, when Dubya gets a negative bounce out of his convention they will no longer be able to ignore the truth. Cool

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While a liberal British paper's poll is interesting, the Mainstream US Polls show that Approval Ratings below 50% are the exception for The Incumbent, this year or any other.

Meanwhile, over at IEM, the Real Money folks have been up to some interesting stuff the last few days.

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/Pres04_WTA.jpg

From essentially even with The Incumbent's share value this past Monday, Kerry's stock has declined sharply, mirroring an essentially equal upturn for Bush The Younger, who now shows a basis-point lead of nearly 7.

Oh, and the latest, from tomorrow's Friday Morning edition of theLA Times must have been a tough one for them to print:

Quote:

Bush Leads Kerry in 3 Key States

By Ronald Brownstein and Kathleen Hennessey, Times Staff Writers

WASHINGTON President Bush has moved past Sen. John F. Kerry in three of the most hotly contested Midwestern battleground states despite continued doubts about the country's direction and the president's policies, new Los Angeles Times polls have found.

According to the surveys, Bush has opened leads within the margin of error in Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri, states at the top of both campaigns' priority lists.

In Missouri, Bush leads among registered voters 46% to 44%; in Wisconsin, he leads 48% to 44%; and in Ohio, the president holds a 49% to 44% advantage, the surveys found.

Like a national Times poll released Wednesday, the surveys underscore the difficulty Kerry has had converting a general desire for change into support for his candidacy ...

What with the Republican Convention coming up, and the recent poll trendings, there's not much cheer in sight for the Kerry Camp over the next week, I imagine.

On a side note, I got a chuckle out of the "despite continued doubts" and "general desire for change" comments ... clearly, the editors really want to believe the rest of the country think as they themselves would have them think, and are perplexed that such seems not to be proving to be the case.

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georgeob1 wrote:

It does appear that Nimh's sense of optimism, at least as it is affected by his estimate of Kerry'sprospects, has been waning a bit lately.

Heh. My sense of optimism - in general, and concerning Kerry's prospects specifically - has never been better than shaky in the first place. You may remember that he wasn't exactly my first choice for presidential candidate, I even started an anti-Kerry thread. (And I consider at least some of my doubts about him confirmed now, tho I honestly dont know whether any of the other available candidates would have done better.)

I admit to having been caught up a little bit, finally, in the enthusiasm around Edwards' VP pick and the Convention, tho. I wasnt so worried about the lack of a bounce, I was encouraged by how poll after poll for basically three months on end worked out to an average 3% Kerry lead - thats not much, but it was amazingly stable.

Yet all that did was make me revise my initial estimation of a 60% chance of Bush winning into a 55% one ... and I'm still sticking with that!

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dyslexia wrote:

has George Bush EVER had an approval rating at 50% or greater in the past year?

Yeah sure. In January-February most polls had his approval still over 50%. And tho the average of his approval numbers, calculated over 18 different pollsters, fell below 50% from late February up till now, there were always still pollsters and individual polls that begged to differ: Gallup/CNN had him up over 50% several times, and the UPenn Annenberg Survey, Battleground Poll and LATimes polls had him up over 50% consistently.

timberlandko wrote:

While a liberal British paper's poll is interesting, the Mainstream US Polls show that Approval Ratings below 50% are the exception for The Incumbent, this year or any other.

Well if its been the exception in any year, Bush better worry, because it's NOT true that it's been the exception for him this year. Above I mentioned the polls that did still regularly have him over 50% after February, but most polls of course did not.

In fact, taking that average of 18 polls (Newsweek, Fox, CBS/NYT, ABC/WaPo, CNN/Time, CNN/Gallup, NBC/WSJ, Pew, AP/Ipsos, Upenn, Quinnipiac, LA Times, ARG, IBD/CSM,NPR, Bloomberg, Marist, Dem Corps, Battleground Poll), the average approval rates for Bush within any half-month period fell to 49,4% in late February and then ever so gradually slipped down. It hovered between 49-50% until late April, suddenly dropped to 46% in May, and after an uptick to 48,4% in early June then remained between 47-47,5% all the time untill ... well, now. That should make the late August average, if things continue like this, the first time Bush's approval is over 50% on average since early February.

timberlandko wrote:

While a liberal British paper's poll is interesting, the Mainstream US Polls show that Approval Ratings below 50% are the exception for The Incumbent, this year or any other.

Ah - I checked the link, so I know where Timber went wrong here now. The link refers to Bush's favourability ratings, which indicate, basically, whether the public think he's a likable guy or not. His approval rates, which indicate whether they think he's doing a good job, have usually been significantly lower.

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Oh, there's one more poll, from NBC/WSJ. 3-way race only, alas, so it wont show up in my graphs. It, too, has Bush in the lead, by 2%. But then it did last month too, so no change either way there - which is cool, cause thats compared to a date at which Kerry still had an average 3% lead in the polls overall.

Bush 47 (no change)
Kerry 45 (no change)
Nader 3 (+1)

Another couple of silver linings here:

"[..] do you feel George W. Bush deserves to be reelected, or do you feel he does not deserve to be reelected?"

Deserves 46% (no change)
Does Not Deserve 50% (+3)

Job approval:
Approve 47% (-1)
Disapprove 48% (+2)

That takes the average job approval for Bush, for the six polls that appeared since mid-month, below 50% again - so perhaps it wont be the first time since late February that Bush breaks that barrier again, after all (though it probably still would if I'd count the daily Rasmussen polls).

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The state by state polls have the electoral college vote at Bush: 300, Kerry:238

http://www.geocities.com/wubwub/bushkerrystate2004.html

Bush was trailing by almost 100 a couple of weeks ago.

What's happened?

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Larry434 wrote:

The state by state polls have the electoral college vote at Bush: 300, Kerry:238

http://www.geocities.com/wubwub/bushkerrystate2004.html

Bush was trailing by almost 100 a couple of weeks ago.

What's happened?

A couple of percent shifted in a very tight race, across the battleground states.

Welcome to A2K, Larry. If you're interested in sites that calculate what the electoral college score would be or will be, there are many out there apart from David Wissing, with often quite divergent scores. Some purely go on current polls; others use some kind of prediction formula. 44 such sites are listed here at Unfutz (overview dates from last week, but you can click the links for each site to see what the current state is).

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Thanks, nimh. I realize the Hedgehog report is no more than a compilation of polls taken in each state...a snapshot in time that needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

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All jerking-timber's-chain aside, 5 polls have been conducted this week and show that the race has tightened. 2 polls with Bush ahead, 2 with Kerry ahead and one tied. 4 out of 5 have Kerry going down slightly and have Bush going up slightly.

CNN/Gallup Likely Voters - 8/25 (Prev: 8/1)
Bush 48% (51)
Kerry 46% (45)
Nader 3% (2)

FOX Likely Voters - 8/25 (Previous: 8/4)
Bush 43% (43)
Kerry 44% (47)
Nader 3% (2)

Economist Registered Voters - 8/25 (Prev: 8/18)
Bush 44% (41)
Kerry 47% (48)
Nader 2% (2)

LA Times Registered Voters - 8/24 (Prev: 7/21)
Bush 47% (44)
Kerry 44% (46)
Nader 3% (3)

IBD/TIPP Registered Voters - 8/23 (Prev: 8/5)
Bush 43% (42)
Kerry 43% (45)
Nader 5% (5)

It is reasonable to consider the race currently tied, and it is likely that Bush will have a small lead coming out of his convention.

Keep in mind that the popular vote doesn't elect a President...

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Larry434 wrote:

The state by state polls have the electoral college vote at Bush: 300, Kerry:238

http://www.geocities.com/wubwub/bushkerrystate2004.html

Bush was trailing by almost 100 a couple of weeks ago.

What's happened?

What site are you citing?

This one show Kerry still leading, 270-259:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

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I cited the cite cited, pdidie.

Different polls of course get varying results.

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Larry434 wrote:

I cited the cite cited, pdidie.

Sorry; upon closer inspection, of course you did.

(I wonder why I can't open sites that begin with "geocities"...)

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nimh has a link above (unfutz) to a collection of 44 electoral college survey sites, with this summary at the end:

Kerry winning: 32 (was: 28)
Kerry ahead: 4 (was: 5)

Bush winning: 4 (was: 5)
Bush ahead: 4 (was: 1)

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sozobe wrote:

nimh has a link above (unfutz) to a collection of 44 electoral college survey sites

Yes, and here's more from there (BTW, electoral vote projections are, again, the only polls that matter):

J. Daniel Behun (8/2 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 284 - Bush 254
(not updated)

Chris Bowers (8/22 - updated):
Kerry 327 - Bush 211
(no change)

Chuck Buckley (8/21):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 321-217)

Coldhearted Truth (8/19):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(no change)

Charlie Cook (8/16 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 207 - Bush 211 - ?? 120
(not updated)

Dales' EC Breakdown (8/20):
Kerry 316 - Bush 202 - ?? 20 (CO, MO)
(was: 316-206-16)

DC Political Report (8/21):
Kerry 165 - Bush 166 - ?? 207
(was: 264-140-134)

dc2 electoral (8/20):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 301-237)

Election Projection (8/22 - updated):
Kerry 311 - Bush 227
(was: 296-242)

Electoral-vote.com (8/21):
Kerry 286 - Bush 233 - ?? 19 (CO, WI)
(was: 327-211)

Fagan: Electline (8/8 - not updated since last survey):
Kerry 238 - Bush 300
(not updated)

Federal Review (8/17):
Kerry 321 - Bush 217
(was: 301-237)

First in the Nation (8/20 new):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(new to survey)

Ed Fitzgerald (8/20):
Kerry 316 - Bush 222
(was: 296-242)

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Stuart Eugene Thiel, also known as Professor Pollkatz, has compiled a new histogram that I really like. As I understand his methodology, he first calculates the chances for each candidate winning each state, given the candidate's vote share and the margin of error for the data available on said state. He then groups the states by their "safety" for the winning candidate and makes a histogram based on their number of seats in the electoral college.

Look here for the result. I like the outcome, but I like the methodology too!

[Edit: Fix image URL]

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If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

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