Busy day today, eh?
The newly released bipartisan
Battleground poll, done by a Republican and a Democratic pollster & sponsored by the GWU, shows Kerry with a slight lead against Bush, 49% to 47% - a week and a half ago.
That was practically no change (Kerry up a point, Bush down a point) compared to late June.
With Nader, its Kerry at 48%, Bush at 47% and Nader at 3%.
The poll has both candidates attracting equal numbers of waverers, because before the follow-up question to "leaners" the numbers were 44, 43, 3.
Australian paper The Age remarks:
Quote:Kerry showed little movement in the head-to-head matchup with Bush after the Democratic National Convention last month in Boston [..]
But he has solidified support among key groups, including blacks and union voters, according to the bipartisan Battleground Poll, and is now running even with the incumbent on strength of support.
The poll found that 84 per cent of voters said they had made a definite choice for president, compared with 64 per cent who said that at a comparable time in the late summer of 2000. [..]
The poll found that evangelical Christians, a Republican-leaning group, have been contacted by campaign workers at a higher rate than blacks and Hispanics, who tend to lean toward the Democrats. Lake said that meant Democrats needed to push hard to match the Republican outreach.
In good news for Bush, the poll also had his job approval at 52%, disapproval at 46%. Two months ago that was 51% to 48%, so a slight uptick there.
Meanwhile,
Gallup (which at the beginning of this month was sharply out of sync with most other polls by showing Bush in a 3% lead when the others had him 5-7% behind) has a fresh poll - with Bush still in a 3-point lead.
Numbers are unchanged in fact: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%.
Not much different with Nader in the picture: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 4%.
USAToday notes:
Quote:President Bush enters his convention week holding a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry and regaining ground he lost after the Democratic convention on the key issues of handling terrorism and Iraq, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. [..]
Bush dominated on personal traits such as "honest and trustworthy" and "stands up for what he believes in." But Kerry continued to lead Bush when people were asked who would better handle taxes, education, Medicare and the economy. [..]
At the same time, the poll found that most people, 63%, think Kerry is definitely or probably telling the truth about his military service. Half say Bush is very or somewhat responsible for the ads the group is running, although Bush and his campaign have denied any involvement. And 56% say Bush should denounce the ads. [..]
The Democratic convention focused squarely on Kerry's heroics in Vietnam and his support among veterans and retired military brass. He closed some gaps with Bush on security issues immediately afterwards, but the new poll shows those gains vanishing. Among the findings:
Bush leads Kerry 49%-43% on who would handle Iraq better. Kerry was ahead 48%-47% right after the convention.
Bush leads Kerry 54%-37% on who would handle terrorism better. Kerry had risen to 41% after his convention.
Bush leads Kerry 54%-34% on who people think is "a strong and decisive leader." Kerry had halved that lead to 10 points right after the convention.
More good news for Bush in the favourability numbers - his now is at "54% [..] his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January."
His job approval rates do not offer the same kind of good news for him though (tho they're not bad either): with 49% approving and 47% disapproving, his net margin is actually 3% smaller than two weeks ago (51/46) - tho thats still better than the numbers from three weeks ago (48/49).
