Good and funny indeed, Au. Off-topic, but no problem.
The good news just keeps rolling in now ...
One poll that usually trends a little Republican-friendly is the Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP one. Yet this is the pollingreport graph on that one at the moment ...
Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll, Aug. 2-5, 2004, compared to July 19-24 (or directly before the Dem Convention):
Bush 43 (no change)
Kerry 49 (+3)
3-way numbers are less positive:
Bush 42 (no change)
Kerry 45 (+1)
Nader 5 (+2)
When I said "The good news just keeps rolling in now", it wasnt just because of what is a modest 1-3% bounce (or whatever you wanna call it) for Kerry in the IBD/CSM poll, it was cause I'd already seen these ones, too:
Time Poll, Aug. 3-5, 2004, compared to July 20-22:
Among likely voters:
Bush 44 (-2)
Kerry 51 (+1)
3-way:
Bush 44 (-2)
Kerry 48 (+2)
Nader 4 (-1)
Among registered voters:
Bush 43 (-2)
Kerry 51 (+1)
3-way:
Bush 42 (-2)
Kerry 47 (+1)
Nader 6 (+1)
Associated Press-Ipsos poll, Aug. 3-5, 2004, compared to July 6-7:
Bush 45 (-5)
Kerry 48 (+2)
Nader 3 (+1)
Democracy Corps Poll - mind you, this is a Democratic pollster - Aug. 2-5, 2004, compared to July 10-13:
Bush 45 (-2)
Kerry 52 (+2)
3-way race:
Bush 44 (-1)
Kerry 49 (+1)
Nader 4 (no change)
Now the changes in all these polls are very small - so no ground for crowing victory there. But the consistency between the polls is encouraging.
Of the 24 two-way-race polls that have appeared since July 6 (not counting Rasmussen's daily tracking poll), 4 had a Bush lead, 1 had the two men tied, and 19 had a Kerry lead.
Sure, the lead was usually narrow, often even within the margin of error. But look at it this way: in 21 out of 24 polls, Bush was stuck at or under a 47% ceiling. In 16 out of those 24 polls, Kerry had more than that 47%.
Add the impression from that state polls update I did above (9 out of 12 battleground states now with Kerry in the lead), and it's clear: the margins may be narrow, but most all the polls show the same thing - a definite edge for Kerry.
The silver lining for Republicans, however, are two of Bush's latest job ratings. AP-Ipsos has 'em down, but marginally (approve: 49%, -1; disapprove: 50%, +2), Time has the balance marginally up (approve: 50%, no change, disapprove: 46%, -1).
Think you found a cool Electoral College overview of current standings? Join the club - there's at least 25 of 'em out there.
Unfutz has 'em all in a list - and shows ya what the current Bush vs Kerry totals are according to each of 'em.
I like Unfutz ... go there just about every day. Oh, and just a jab here, but kelticwizard, you seem still not to get it ... no one poll is on or off the mark as far as the overall look goes ... its the group that matters, and a look at a group member's call one call to the next is nothing more or less than a look at that group member's call in the context of the group and of the group's history. And again, if your criteria of accuracy is deviation from realized result, Harris is the winner; they may miss on the exact percentage-per-candidate, but they've pretty much nailed the spread consistently.
nimh, have you seen this before?
That's a great one PDiddie ... thanks for today's best laugh
LOL! Where the **** did you find that!?
Some people be creative ... hehheh
nimh wrote:LOL! Where the **** did you find that!?
Some people be creative ... hehheh
The original is from:
http://juliusblog.blogspot.com/2004_08_01_juliusblog_archive.html#109174332697993966
Although i don't see the correlation between the terror alerts and the approval rating.
More on that AP-Ipsos poll ...
OK, I'm @ my own place for a few hours, so I uploaded an update of the graphs ...
Mind you, the last period now drawn into the graphs is still not finished, I expect there will be another coupla polls still that will change the exact number of the last position ...
Still, the 5,2% lead for Kerry currently indicated for the two-way race for August I is the average of five polls, four of which each had a Kerry lead of 5-7% (and the fifth one deserves a caveat*). So it seems a stable enough trend.
*The caveat for the two-way race poll is for the ABC/WaPo result included in the "Aug I" batch. Since the poll was done on July 30-August 1, it should really have been included in the July III batch. But I already had a ABC/WaPo poll in that batch, the one from directly before the Dem Convention. Formally speaking, thus, I should put the average of those two in for July III, and leave Aug I open for now. But, err, yeah, I'd rather not do averages of consecutive polls, and since this last one was really on the edge of two timeperiods anyway, I decided to count it for Aug I for now. Should yet another ABC/WaPo poll emerge about the period up till August 10, I will revise and take that one as Aug I, and merge the two prior ones into a July III avarage after all.
Yep, the Christmas tree has been commented on -- I was rooting for the lines to meet for quite a while before they did, much rejoicing when it happened. Course, I wish they'd keep going rather than doing that little twiny dance... :-( (As in UP UP UP with disapproval and down down down with approval...)
But 5.2! That's nice! Makes up for twiny dance.
I was watching Fox News last night, and in their own poll people prefferred Kerry over Bush 53%-45% on national security issues and 51-47% overall.
The announcer was pretty pissed off, and they announced a foxnews.com online poll, so I decided to keep watching to see how it turned out....
National Security 52%--49% Kerry.
Overall 50-50 Deadlock.
You should have seen the guys face.
Cycloptichorn
Nader may be the deciding factor in this election. The republicans must think so since they are so intent on getting him on the ballot. Perhaps he is a clandestine republican or secret weapon or maybe their WMD.
Nader is making noises like he doesn't want to hurt the Democrats this time, he just wnats to build the new party.
He met with the Democrats and said something like he doesn't want to go negative on the Democrats this year. That is a distinct change from 2000, where his position was that there was little difference between the parties. Plus he's not going to be on the ballot in all 50 states this time either, it looks like. So he might be a diminished factor.
It'a very, very early, and Kerry has just had a week or so of nice polls. So I guess it is too early to sensibly ask this, but I will ask it anyway-do you think there is a chance for a Kerry rout of Bush? 12, 15 points margin of victory?
To be honest, I am cautiously optimistic. It's just that there doesn't seem to be much good news for Bush fans these days-just good "spin" from his supporters. The public isn't buying the "economy is in great shape" bit. And everyone concluded a long time ago, (whether they admit it or not), that Iraq is something we should not have done.
These last few months are beginning to remind me of the last few months of his father's term-just a sense that while he isn't the worst, the fellow in the White House is not going to be the guy who can get you where you want to go.
kelticwizard wrote:Nader is making noises like he doesn't want to hurt the Democrats this time, he just wnats to build the new party.
What "new party"? He's running as an Independent candidate this year ... the Greens have their own candidate, Cobb. Nader's endorsed by the Reform Party, but I doubt he's in to rebuild
that one ...
kelticwizard wrote:It'a very, very early, and Kerry has just had a week or so of nice polls. So I guess it is too early to sensibly ask this, but I will ask it anyway-do you think there is a chance for a Kerry rout of Bush? 12, 15 points margin of victory?
My take? No way ... (alas).
Cycloptichorn wrote:I was watching Fox News last night, and in their own poll people prefferred Kerry over Bush 53%-45% on national security issues and 51-47% overall.
FoxNews presented this poll result? A sensation for the conservative sender..
