If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Casino's are back to favoring Bush. They had it at even money before the convention.

So, did you use the opportunity to place your Bush bet just before the Convention, Bill? :wink:

These clowns are like watching paint dry. At least with Bush, we know what color it will be when it does. :wink:

Kerry's four-point "bounce" is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. [..] Still, Kerry and Edwards have gained ground on several key election issues. [..] In an election expected to be decided by a small number of unaffiliated voters, independents now lean toward Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent, with Nader pulling 7 percent. [..]

Voters are deadlocked at 46 percent over who they would trust more with handling the situation in Iraq (Bush had enjoyed a 15 point lead in March). They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security, issues on which they had preferred the president by 21 points in March. This is significant because the top issues among voters are terrorism (21 percent), the economy (19 percent), Iraq (18 percent) and health care (15 percent).

Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted "to make the right decisions during an international crisis" (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). [..] domestically, more voters believe Bush's policies have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (33 percent) the economy. Voters also feel they would far more trust Kerry (55 percent) than Bush (32 percent) with issues pertaining to health care and Medicare.

[..] the Democratic Party's nominee now boasts stronger ratings than the president on being "personally likeable" (67 percent agree with that description of Kerry, 62 percent of the president); on being someone who cares about "someone like you" (57 percent feel this describes Kerry, 44 percent Bush); and on having "strong leadership qualities" (31 percent don't see these in Kerry whereas 38 percent don't see them in Bush).

With the major networks broadcasting very little of the actual convention in prime time, registered voters did not watch very much of it. Just half the voters (48 percent) said they watched at least some of the convention, with 41 percent of those who did watch walking away with a more favorable view of candidate. About a quarter (24 percent) of all viewers felt less favorable.

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush [..] In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error [..]. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention. [..]

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democratic ticket a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll. [..]

Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll. [..]

But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, the three challengers who have unseated presidents held clear leads after their conventions. [..]

Those surveyed gave the convention and its candidate high marks:

Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.

Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%. [..]

In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%."

Now there's a surprise ...

I want some of that action. As likable as these two candidates are they're liable to lose a point or two at the conventions.

Back to voters being brought home already? That the ones who cared didn't need the convention to care, and the ones who didn't care didn't care about the convention?

Another thing just occurred to me, something I read somewhere (may have been here) about how while Kerry had to be specific eventually, the more specific he got, the less he'd be able to glide on ABB cachet. Like how he lost ebrown early on. So maybe he gained some people by being more specific, finally, but also lost some people by being more specific?

Or maybe there was an offsetting Bush bounce? I only watched the convention on CNN, no editing, no commercials, haven't been watching commercial TV at all, don't know what Bush was doing during the convention, seems like it had to have been something. So maybe that was effective, would've been say a 4% bounce for Bush without the convention, as it happened the bounces canceled each other out?

My own thinking right now is that the people who care at this point have already made up their minds, dem or repub, and that it the various remaining undecideds -- young people, etc. -- will make up their minds closer yet to the election.