If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

Craven de Kere wrote:

nimh, do you think that maybe if it were a different candidate, Bush's 80 million ad burst might have simply done the characterization differently?

sozobe wrote:

I think the most pertinent point is that the 80-million-machine would have been targeted differently.

About the argument that Kerry's benefited so little from all the disastrous news and publicity for Bush because, in turn, he was the target of a ruthless "80-million-machine".

Not to be anal about it, but if you really want to make a realistic assessment about this, you've got to first add that Kerry himself spent $45 million in the same time.

So its just a $35 million, not an $80 million difference thats supposed to have outbalanced all the advantages you would have expected Kerry to derive from the Bush admin's Fallujah, Abu G., 9/11 Commission etc PR disasters.

Meanwhile, you gotta wonder about where that $45 million went (emphasis mine):

MSNBC wrote:

a real drop from 68 percent in the NBC/Journal March survey.

Kerry's money has nothing to do with it, and even if it did the 35 million figure is something I can't find a reasonable explanation for no matter how hard I try.

Anywho, the what ifs aren't as interesting to me as my next prediction:

Between now and the 10th, Bush's popularity will increase.

Let's see if I am right.

The one poll you could use to check your prediction is the Rasmussen tracking poll. But keep the MoE in mind - two of 'em, one for Bush and one for Kerry ;-)

The Bush campaign spends $80 million on making the Dem candidate look like one thing. The Dems spend $45 million to make it look like the Dem candidate is not that thing - or that he is, in fact, another thing.

Balance in impact of "imaging": -$35 million. Thats pretty much as simple/istic as the concept was.

As if that juggernaut wasnt also already countered with a Dem one at least half as big.

Will be hard to verify. Most polls dont come that fast in sequence. So it'll be an apples vs oranges comparison - compare today's CBS poll with the Gallup poll of the 10th, for example.

So - before the past results get filed away into the premium section of RR, this would be your "zero-line" of today to start measuring from:

Bush 45% Kerry 46%

Bush Approve 49% Disapprove 51%

John Kerry

Total Receipts: $148,912,737
Total Spent: $120,406,095
Cash on Hand: $28,506,641
Debts: $7,448,722
Date of last report: May 31, 2004

George Bush

Total Receipts: $215,357,708
Total Spent: $150,289,570
Cash on Hand: $110,261,092
Debts: $322,383
Date of last report: May 31, 2004

Opensecrets.org

(Kerry's) campaign's travel budget has also vastly increased, enabling it to expand the size of its paid staff and add paid campaign workers in swing states. Cahill said the infusion of money had helped her recruit talent like Terry Edmonds, who directed Bill Clinton's speechwriters at the White House.

There were also smaller expenditures. In May alone, the campaign spent $10,500 for photographers at its events, more than $200,000 to dispense Kerry hats and T-shirts and other promotional material, and at least $6,500 for parking.

Kerry Has to Decide Soon on Repaying a Big Loan

By GLEN JUSTICE

Published: June 30, 2004


WASHINGTON, June 29 - Among the many strategic decisions facing Senator John Kerry in the coming weeks, one may hit closer to home than others, whether to use campaign contributions to repay the $6.4 million that he lent his campaign or pay it off over time using his own money.

A provision in the new campaign finance law requires Mr. Kerry to pay back the loan shortly after the Democratic convention next month if he plans to use campaign money ...

Bush Camp Cut Back on Spending Last Month
By GLEN JUSTICE

Published: June 19, 2004


WASHINGTON, June 18 - President Bush sharply slowed his campaign spending last month, paying out just $22 million in May as he scaled back his spring television advertising campaign, according to a report filed today with the Federal Election Commission.

My point was that it was a well spent 85 million, that was predicted by many pundits and that you and I spoke about here (not letting Bush get the first impression).

All of my feelings on the Dem candidates reflect what I see as a very powerful and very skilled team in the Whitehouse.

The money they have allowed them to start earlier and get out a first impression.

Nah, nothing 'inside', it's just 7/4 and saddam. Betcha it's worth a blip. Dunno if the polls can register something so small though.

New Wall Street Journal / NBC poll out. Coverage here (I already quoted a bit on Kerry, above):
NBC poll: President 'down but not out'

The two-way results, not included in the article by the way, have Kerry and Bush both at 47%. The three-way results have Bush with 45%, Kerry 44% and Nader 4%.

Before we get to this week's polling data, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the polling data we have seen since March of this year to see who is more Bush favorable and who is most Kerry favorable. So, I compared the results of each polling organization to the mean results for all polling organization for each particular week. I then averaged each pollster's results to see how far off each pollster is from the average values of contemporary polls.

The most pro Kerry poll is CBS, and the most pro-Bush is Investor's Business Daily / TIPP, but the disparities are minor. On average, CBS is 2 points more favorable for Kerry. Thus, if the average of all polls for a week shows a Bush lead of 3, then CBS is likely to show a Bush lead of only 1. Investor's Business Daily has been 2 points more favorable to Bush on average. In the below list, I have not included results for Harris (which showed a 10 point lead for Bush just last week) because I only have 2 Harris polls included so far. Similarly, I have not included LA Times (2 polls), Quinnipiac (2 polls), AP/Ipsos (1 poll) or NBC (1 poll).

Poll .. Diff from Mean / No. Polls
CBS .. -1.7 / 5
ABC Washington Post .. -0.9 / 4
Zogby .. -0.7 / 5
Rasmussen .. -0.4 / 13*
Newsweek .. -0.3 / 4
CNN/USAToday/Gallup .. 0.0 / 8
FoxNews .. 0.9 / 8
IBD/CSM/TIPP .. 2.1 / 5

* Rasmussen polls daily, and we average the polls weekly, so 13 weeks are included and analyzed.

Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for Mr. Bush's re-election campaign, calculated several years ago that if the Republican ticket were to take the same percentages of the Hispanic, black and white vote in 2004 as it did in 2000, it would lose the popular vote by three million ballots and the Electoral College. In 2000, Mr. Bush received 544,000 fewer votes than Al Gore but won the Electoral College."