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The Current Crisis

 
 
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 09:10 am
@Pangloss,
Pangloss wrote:
Technically, how is a union any different from a monopoly that should be illegal under the anti-trust act? Their goal is to work together in order to restrict supply (of workers), thus keeping prices (wages) up. Those who are left without the union card are out of luck...


I oppose anti-trust legislation as well, and this is likely for another thread, but what moral justification do you have for violently forbidding workers from banding together?
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 10:08 am
@Mr Fight the Power,
Mr. Fight the Power;29651 wrote:
I oppose anti-trust legislation as well, and this is likely for another thread, but what moral justification do you have for violently forbidding workers from banding together?


If you would direct us to any quote that I made which supports "violently forbidding workers from banding together", then this question might warrant a response. As it stands, I do not have to justify anything like this, because I never made this claim.

Let's get a couple of things straight:

1) Labor is just like any good that is bought and sold on the market, and unions act as monopolies by restricting the supply of labor in order to drive up the prices.

2) Unions do not help workers. They help union members. Workers who are excluded from union membership, for whatever reason, either become unemployed or end up taking lower wages than they should, due to the union monopoly.

Understanding these two things does not necessarily mean I am pro-union or anti-union. Workers do have a right to organize, but the leeway that is given to unions according to our laws is excessive; these organizations had (and still do have in some labor markets, though union activity has greatly declined) excessive power at their disposal with which they could manipulate the market.

If you want to talk about violence, don't try to say the big bad corporations were the only bad guys in violent strikes and protests. Workers killed people during these events as well, and were the main instigators of such catastrophes.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 10:29 am
@Pangloss,
Pangloss wrote:
If you would direct us to any quote that I made which supports "violently forbidding workers from banding together", then this question might warrant a response. As it stands, I do not have to justify anything like this, because I never made this claim.


As an anarchist, I like to make the rhetorical point of bringing up government's primary method of social control: violence.

If a law is issued that stops workers from forming whatever type of peaceful negotiating organization, it will be enforced by violence.

Quote:
1) Labor is just like any good that is bought and sold on the market, and unions act as monopolies by restricting the supply of labor in order to drive up the prices.


And what is wrong with that? Other than the economic infeasibility of it?

Quote:
2) Unions do not help workers. They help union members. Workers who are excluded from union membership, for whatever reason, either become unemployed or end up taking lower wages than they should, due to the union monopoly.


I do not blame any individual for taking whatever peaceful steps he can to assure that he receives the greatest return from his labor. This is especially true in the current pro-big business skew that has been placed on the marketplace.

I also will not advocate punishment and thievery from unionized workers based on the non-unionized position of another worker.

Quote:
Understanding these two things does not necessarily mean I am pro-union or anti-union. Workers do have a right to organize, but the leeway that is given to unions according to our laws is excessive; these organizations had (and still do have in some labor markets, though union activity has greatly declined) excessive power at their disposal with which they could manipulate the market.


The NLRB is one of the biggest ongoing crimes the government has instituted against the American worker. Unions have very, very little leeway.

Quote:
If you want to talk about violence, don't try to say the big bad corporations were the only bad guys in violent strikes and protests. Workers killed people during these events as well, and were the main instigators of such catastrophes.


If we were going to have a battle for sympathy, big business, government, and their Pinkerton cronies certainly do not even have a place on the field.

That is not to say that unions have been squeaky clean, as they have instituted just as unfair practices against scabs.
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 10:55 am
@Mr Fight the Power,
Mr. Fight the Power;29662 wrote:
As an anarchist, I like to make the rhetorical point of bringing up government's primary method of social control: violence.

If a law is issued that stops workers from forming whatever type of peaceful negotiating organization, it will be enforced by violence.


Ultimately, yes. But there is no law that stops workers from organizing and peacefully negotiating. They have restrictions, but they are allowed to do as you say. I find it hard to take you seriously in your implication that violence should apparently be avoided at all costs, yet you say you are an anarchist. Such a system (lack of system) would certainly include more violence. But this is for another discussion...


Quote:

And what is wrong with that? Other than the economic infeasibility of it?

The NLRB is one of the biggest ongoing crimes the government has instituted against the American worker. Unions have very, very little leeway.


Well, it technically fits the definition of an illegal "monopoly" according to anti-trust law. Unions do have leeway in that they are an exception to anti-trust law, and are allowed legal monopolies in the labor market, while this practice is deemed to be a terrible thing in any other market.



Quote:
I do not blame any individual for taking whatever peaceful steps he can to assure that he receives the greatest return from his labor. This is especially true in the current pro-big business skew that has been placed on the marketplace.


Sure. Policies such as a special capital gains tax, and corporate tax law in general means that big business can get away with paying less than they should. The loopholes exist, and teams of tax lawyers and accountants are payed to utilize them. Warren Buffet stated that it's a shame that his secretary pays a higher percentage of her income back to the govt. than he does. Receiving a greater return for your labor though is remedied by marketing yourself as a good worker, seeking out the best place of employment, and furthering your skills/education (investing in your human capital). There is no longer a need for unions like there was during the early days of industrialized America, which is why their popularity has plummeted.


Quote:
If we were going to have a battle for sympathy, big business, government, and their Pinkerton cronies certainly do not even have a place on the field.

That is not to say that unions have been squeaky clean, as they have instituted just as unfair practices against scabs.


I don't have sympathy for any organized agenda. This includes big business, government, and unions. These groups by definition are not worthy of sympathy because they are created entities that serve the purpose of furthering the power of the agenda and they do not represent a person. Individuals join in with the hope that the agenda will serve their individual desires. I say get rid of more agendas and free up the market so that individuals can rely on themselves to meet out their desires. This also means fair legal responsibilities and taxation for corporations.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 12:35 pm
@Pangloss,
Pangloss wrote:
Ultimately, yes. But there is no law that stops workers from organizing and peacefully negotiating. They have restrictions, but they are allowed to do as you say. I find it hard to take you seriously in your implication that violence should apparently be avoided at all costs, yet you say you are an anarchist. Such a system (lack of system) would certainly include more violence. But this is for another discussion...


I believe a thread on anarchism could be needed on this forum.

Quote:
Receiving a greater return for your labor though is remedied by marketing yourself as a good worker, seeking out the best place of employment, and furthering your skills/education (investing in your human capital). There is no longer a need for unions like there was during the early days of industrialized America, which is why their popularity has plummeted.


While unions are not actually beneficial to wages in the long run, it is still very silly to say that all one needs is to market oneself as a good worker. The history of mercantilism and industrialism, the growth of capitalism itself, has been one of subjugation of the worker.

The negotiation powers of the union still provide benefit and insure that an elite class that has never had much reason to respect workers will do so.

Quote:
I don't have sympathy for any organized agenda. This includes big business, government, and unions. These groups by definition are not worthy of sympathy because they are created entities that serve the purpose of furthering the power of the agenda and they do not represent a person. Individuals join in with the hope that the agenda will serve their individual desires. I say get rid of more agendas and free up the market so that individuals can rely on themselves to meet out their desires. This also means fair legal responsibilities and taxation for corporations.


No market is made freer via the elimination of unions. I agree that individuals should ultimately rely on themselves, but that is not always a the most beneficial.
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 01:23 pm
@Mr Fight the Power,
Unions are as legal and appropriate as any other sort of cooperative; they are a kind of monopoly, but I diagree with anti-trust legislation. As a company should be allowed to sell its goods and purchase its inventory at whatever price it manages to negotiate, so unions ought to be permitted to form and neogotiate for wages. The government should do nothing but enforce contractual obligations through the courts and protect private property. Using government troops or legislation to either break strikes or influence employers, via threatened nationalization, is innapropriate. I feel that unregulated monopolies and unregulated unions would balance one another to some extent. The fact that today, unions arw allowed to strike only for certain amounts of time, by law, is rediculous.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 03:05 pm
@Mr Fight the Power,
Mr. Fight the Power;29678 wrote:
While unions are not actually beneficial to wages in the long run, it is still very silly to say that all one needs is to market oneself as a good worker. The history of mercantilism and industrialism, the growth of capitalism itself, has been one of subjugation of the worker.

The negotiation powers of the union still provide benefit and insure that an elite class that has never had much reason to respect workers will do so.


Unions were much more useful to workers when they first came about...they did help negotiate certain rights and minimum working conditions that otherwise probably wouldn't have been possible. But today people in all social classes in this country have a much higher standard of living, and enjoy much more time for leisure, or extra work/education. Marketing yourself and investing in yourself (education and skills) is the best way to increase your earnings. Unions now don't really play a big part in the lives of American workers. Membership is now around 12% of the population, whereas in the first half of the 20th century (the heyday of organized labor power), membership was around 1/3 of the population.
0 Replies
 
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Oct, 2008 09:26 pm
@BrightNoon,
I'd like to bring up inflation again, which is my greatest immediate concern. Does anyone find it strange that the actual supply of money has expanded expontentially in recent weeks and interest rates are about to drop below 1%, yet the government has not reported any significant inflation? Am I insane or are they lying or miscalculating?
Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Oct, 2008 09:37 pm
@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon wrote:
I'd like to bring up inflation again, which is my greatest immediate concern. Does anyone find it strange that the actual supply of money has expanded expontentially in recent weeks and interest rates are about to drop below 1%, yet the government has not reported any significant inflation? Am I insane or are they lying or miscalculating?


I think we have just entered a state of deflation, but in a relatively short time frame, I think that the economy is going to suffer hyperinflation mostly due to the reason you listed--the exponential growth in the supply of money. The reason for the current state of deflation is the plummeting of fuel prices. I think once the market adjusts to the falling prices of fuel, the actual value of the money is going to plummet.
Didymos Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Oct, 2008 11:40 pm
@Theaetetus,
Quote:
Let's get a couple of things straight:

1) Labor is just like any good that is bought and sold on the market, and unions act as monopolies by restricting the supply of labor in order to drive up the prices.


Awesome. So we agree that modern economics is the science of greed. What a terrible human endeavor.

Quote:
I'd like to bring up inflation again, which is my greatest immediate concern. Does anyone find it strange that the actual supply of money has expanded expontentially in recent weeks and interest rates are about to drop below 1%, yet the government has not reported any significant inflation? Am I insane or are they lying or miscalculating?


You are definitely on to something. We should be on the lookout for inflation, and immediately so. But I do not think what we see at the moment is inaccurate. The supply of money has increased, but inflation is usually measured by the price of certain goods. Because the supply of money has increased, look out. The effects will only take a moment.

Gas is, despite recent drastic drops, still rather expensive. This is part of the reason why goods are still, relatively, expensive.

I'm no economist - I can't predict just how the increased supply of money will influence the economy, but from what little I know, there is cause for concern.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 05:10 am
@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon wrote:
I'd like to bring up inflation again, which is my greatest immediate concern. Does anyone find it strange that the actual supply of money has expanded expontentially in recent weeks and interest rates are about to drop below 1%, yet the government has not reported any significant inflation? Am I insane or are they lying or miscalculating?


Inflation is calculated based on prices and the CPI, it may take a little time before we start seeing the effects of the monetary policy on prices.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 08:30 am
@Didymos Thomas,
Didymos Thomas;29955 wrote:
Awesome. So we agree that modern economics is the science of greed. What a terrible human endeavor.


A basic textbook definition of economics that you might find is: the study of human behavior with the assumption that individuals will rationally pursue their own interests...of course it does get more complicated than that, but that is basic economics.

That one basic assumption though does allow for reliable predictions of human behavior in many instances. Don't you agree that people are greedy? The point of the social sciences is to understand and predict human behavior and its outcomes. If self-interest/greed is one assumption that holds mostly true, it is just a fact of nature that is useful for study. Greed is something that is always there, whether you have a capitalist system or a socialist system, and those who have wealth/power are always going to work to maintain or increase that power. Similarly, those without power will want to gain it...they do so by supporting policies of redistribution and class warfare.

No economic system is going to be fair, though I believe that one which relies mostly on the principles on the free market, with less government intervention, will tend to be the best for individual freedoms, while also allowing individuals and the economy as a whole to succeed. Obviously, this is an ideal, and the US economic system does favor the rich and the big businesses. It's a problem that the "free market" has become associated with big business, because if we actually fixed taxation and used less govt. intervention, big business and the wealthy would not have as much power.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 08:45 am
@Pangloss,
Yes. Economics is Praxeology: the science of human action.

Free market economics is the study of free human action, and therefore a study of human values. There is nothing about the free market or capitalism that relies on greed. If there is no greed the market will reflect this also.

A great altruistic social revolution will not derail the free market, it will simply change its emergent properties.
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 01:11 pm
@Mr Fight the Power,
Good point everyone; the effects of monetary inflation will not reach prices dramatically for some time.

Though I am no economist, I understand the basic principles of economics and it seems to me that a sudden and catastrophic collapse of faith in the dollar is most likely (as opposed to gradual decline), simply because there has been such unquestioned faith in it heretofore that the lsighest downgrading of the govenments's credit rating will cause a huge sell off, yet lower ratings, etc. So, here is another question; what role do you think T-bill rates may have in predicting such a catastrophe? Obviously, as confidence falls, rates should increase. Will there be a delay with this as well; i.e. will rates plummet only after a period of obvious inflation or will they antipicate it? I've been watching the change in rates over the past few weeks carefully, excpecting to se a sign of the end times, so to speak. Thus far, there hasn't been much movement. We havn't seen much price inflation yet, but investors surely are aware of its extreme likelyhood. Here is my hypothesis; the crashes in the stock market have sent so many people into the relative safety of T-bills, causing a huge increase in demand, that rates have remained artifically low. By the way, Standard and Poor is the rating agency that I mentioned earlier, which has in recent years expressed concerned about the government's solvency and has considered lowering its rating from AAA.

Any thoughts?
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 01:16 pm
@BrightNoon,
O yes, and Thomas, you are a moralist, not a pragmatist.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 02:54 pm
@BrightNoon,
The fed. funds rate was just cut by another 50 points.

Really there is not much use in trying to prophesy what will happen with inflation...it has been increasing in recent data (Almost 2% just in June and July), and is expected to keep increasing.

I don't think the interest rates of t-bills are really going to tell you much. US govt.-issued bonds are still one of the safest investments you can hold. I also don't think that this current problem is really going to be a huge problem in the long run, and as I have said in other posts, it has been hyped up in the media to the point of absurdity (there is always a big focus on the economy during election times, and the housing problem is stoking the flames). There is still a lot of foreign investment in US companies, and exports have been doing well.

The problem in the market is mainly just a reminder that the market is far from being efficient. Most securities across the board were probably well overvalued before this drop began. I think the current drops we have seen recently are almost entirely a result of the classic wall street-panic mentality. This panic mentality is widespread, and is like a disease, infecting people throughout wall street, the media, and washington. Of course the mortgage screw-up is a real problem that has really been killing the lenders and homeowners involved, as well as others. But we have people like the fed. chairman Bernanke going on the news and talking about a "recession" well ahead of the data that would indicate a recession, and talkshow host after talkshow host, newspaper article after article, politician after politician reminding us all of our "current crisis". This state of panic is now so complete, that I find myself wondering whether or not it has been an orchestrated action...sociologists should be taking note on this situation for their next book outlining the best way to induce mass-panic.

-Begin Rampant Speculation/Rant-

I am not one to believe in conspiracies, but this state of panic that I see permeating our lives appears to be orchestrated, and hasn't it been convenient in convincing everyone to ram the "bail-out bill" through congress? The mass media is owned by large corporations who stand to benefit from the bill. The bill, as originally proposed, explicitly gave Paulson the power to make purchases with the $700b, with the inability of anyone else to regulate this activity. Though this clause was removed from the final version of the bill, the intent was clear, and Paulson's ridiculous power gain is still undeniable. We will just be extending massive amounts of credit (at the expense of everyone) to primarily benefit the wealthy (Paulson and his friends at the treasury dept., formerly of Goldman Sachs, now buying up their former i-bank's securities...they probably even still hold some stock options) in the short-term. The wealthy of course, as we have seen with AIG, will not change their lifestyles in the mean-time, and will be able to cash out without reaping the consequences of their gambling. Everyone else however will have to tough it out with the hopes that the market comes back with the help of the bailout. The US dept. of the treasury has become like a national investment bank, ruled by the ivy league boys' club, financed by the taxpayers, with free license to purchase these securities from friends at whatever price they deem is a good one (maybe they are worth nothing).

I do understand that this bailout will, in theory, help the overall economy avoid a disaster. But I don't think any data has shown that the mortgages would have caused a real disaster...perhaps a minor recession, which isn't really a "crisis". The real disaster has been the created panic. The economy is being "saved" when it really doesn't need to be, and the elite are profiting from their gambles while everyone else picks up the bill and hopes that they can pay it off.

This is real "robber baron" type stuff as it seems to me, similar to what Andrew Carnegie et al. were doing back in the 19th century (collusion here is probably widespread- those who safeguard of our money have a conflict of interest in keeping our money safe when they and their friends stand to benefit at our expense). The potential conflicts of interest here, and the massive restoration of wealth for gambling businessmen at the expense of massive debt for the public at large seems to me to be outrageous. Yet it is all due to our "crisis". So far, GDP has still been increasing in 2008, even though many "professional" financial analysts and economists have been talking about or writing about the "recession" for the last year or so now, which they should know is measured by two consecutive quarters of a decline in production.

Paulson's New Powers

Quote:
Necessary Actions- The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation, the following:

(1) The Secretary shall have direct hiring authority with respect to the appointment of employees to administer this Act.
(2) Entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code.
(3) Designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Federal Government, and such institutions shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Federal Government as may be required.
(4) In order to provide the Secretary with the flexibility to manage troubled assets in a manner designed to minimize cost to the taxpayers, establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase, hold, and sell troubled assets and issue obligations.
(5) Issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities or purposes of this Act.


Conflicts of Interest

Quote:
(a) Standards Required- The Secretary shall issue regulations or guidelines necessary to address and manage or to prohibit conflicts of interest that may arise in connection with the administration and execution of the authorities provided under this Act, including...



Nice...Paulson has authoritative power here, without limitation, and yet he is also the one who is going to issue the "regulations or guidelines" as to the conflicts of interest. That, in itself, is a conflict of interest, right in the bill. The wording here is nice too. Not only can he decide on managing the conflicts of interest, but he can simply issue guidelines if he wants...just as good as regulations, right? He doesn't have to prohibit conflicts of interest either...he can simply address and manage them ("or" prohibit).

Congress may as well have just left this bit of text in the final version of the bill as Paulson had first proposed it:

Quote:
Sec. 8. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.


The passed bill does have a section for review and audits, but of course we all know how likely it will be that they use these powers to prevent any wrong-doing. (Just like how the SEC does wonders in preventing insider trading).
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 06:24 pm
@Pangloss,
Pangloss wrote:
I don't think the interest rates of t-bills are really going to tell you much. US govt.-issued bonds are still one of the safest investments you can hold. I also don't think that this current problem is really going to be a huge problem in the long run, and as I have said in other posts, it has been hyped up in the media to the point of absurdity (there is always a big focus on the economy during election times, and the housing problem is stoking the flames). There is still a lot of foreign investment in US companies, and exports have been doing well.


They are safe now. My point is that, if there is substantial inflation, or fear that such inflation will shortly be upon us, rates will have to go up to entice investors; no one is going to buy bonds whose return is less than the rate of inflation. Of course, you're right that any specific prediction is impossible.

On the other hand, I don't see how you can be so optomistic about the situation. I dislike the media coverage too, not for exxagerating the problem, but for misidentifying it. No one talks about the impact of these massive government expenditures; the media debate whether or not the 'bailout' will work, but not what consequences it might have, not whether it is affordable. When they talk about the $700,000,000,000, they refer to the other uses the money could be put to, to health care, housing, etc; it is an though the fact that we an borrow/print ad infinitum is given.

Pangloss wrote:
The problem in the market is mainly just a reminder that the market is far from being efficient. Most securities across the board were probably well overvalued before this drop began. I think the current drops we have seen recently are almost entirely a result of the classic wall street-panic mentality. This panic mentality is widespread, and is like a disease, infecting people throughout wall street, the media, and washington. Of course the mortgage screw-up is a real problem that has really been killing the lenders and homeowners involved, as well as others. But we have people like the fed. chairman Bernanke going on the news and talking about a "recession" well ahead of the data that would indicate a recession, and talkshow host after talkshow host, newspaper article after article, politician after politician reminding us all of our "current crisis". This state of panic is now so complete, that I find myself wondering whether or not it has been an orchestrated action...sociologists should be taking note on this situation for their next book outlining the best way to induce mass-panic.


I think your looking at the effects, rather than the causes, just as politicians and newspeople have bene doing. The stock markey has crashed because banks have suddenly found themselves with assets worth virtually nothing. As they cannot loan more, their coperate customers have trouble operating. Unemployment rises, demand falls, etc. How did these problems first arise; the government either (1) enticed banks to lend to high risk borrowers by having very low fed. rates and expansion of the mon. base, or (2) actually mandated that banks loan to such people, as in the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The result was a structure of debt, much of it nearly worthless, throughout the economy, which has caused the 'current crisis.' By expanding the base and lowering rates further, the government is, admittedly, trying to stimulate new lending, to stimulate demand. The immediate crisis might well pass, but in allowing this, the government has made the eventual collapse that much worse. I don't see how this can be in doubt, unless one assumes that continual printing and borrowing is permamently sustainable. My feeling is that we are approaching a critical point; in the past, the government followed their keyensian polcies to stimulate growth in the economy, now and in the future, money, in increasingly large amounts, will have to spent just to prevent collapse. It is exponential, as is the graph of M3 against GDP, which reflects this.

Note: I know I sound very pessimistic, which I usually am not. I just want to speak and hear the truth about this issue, beause denial makes it so much worse. As I see it, the real problem cannot be solved until we ackowledge the flaw in our policies and in the responses to crises like this one.
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 08:32 pm
@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon;30127 wrote:
I think your looking at the effects, rather than the causes, just as politicians and newspeople have bene doing. The stock markey has crashed because banks have suddenly found themselves with assets worth virtually nothing. As they cannot loan more, their coperate customers have trouble operating. Unemployment rises, demand falls, etc. How did these problems first arise; the government either (1) enticed banks to lend to high risk borrowers by having very low fed. rates and expansion of the mon. base, or (2) actually mandated that banks loan to such people, as in the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The result was a structure of debt, much of it nearly worthless, throughout the economy, which has caused the 'current crisis.' By expanding the base and lowering rates further, the government is, admittedly, trying to stimulate new lending, to stimulate demand. The immediate crisis might well pass, but in allowing this, the government has made the eventual collapse that much worse. I don't see how this can be in doubt, unless one assumes that continual printing and borrowing is permamently sustainable. My feeling is that we are approaching a critical point; in the past, the government followed their keyensian polcies to stimulate growth in the economy, now and in the future, money, in increasingly large amounts, will have to spent just to prevent collapse. It is exponential, as is the graph of M3 against GDP, which reflects this.


Yes, I understand the collapse of the housing market, and am not trying to say that it was not the primary catalyst for this downturn in the market--that is undeniable. But you also can't discount the power of panic on the direction of the market. While the mortgage-related securities gave the needed spark for the market downturn, the sense of panic is really what has taken us down. Of course much of this is the legitimate sense of writing down and/or writing off some of these businesses that will likely collapse due to their investments. But the panic mentality is very powerful as well, and can ruin markets on its own, as we have seen in the past. Surely you don't believe that these incredible fluctuations in market prices we have been seeing are the result of efficient valuation?

If you need proof of the power of panic, you can look at historic events: pancis of 1893, 1896, 1901, 1902, the 1980 "silver thursday" panic, the significant drop after 9/11, et. al. The great depression itself was the result of an avoidable panic.

Analyzing the hopes and/or fears of investors can be a more reliable indicator for short-term market results than analyzing the underlying asset. But here we need to make a distinction between market performance and economic performance. While the market has certainly performed relatively poorly since the summer of 07 (and I would argue that much of this is due to panic), the economy as a whole has not yet taken a turn for the worse. Growth has slowed, but we have not yet reached recession. Inflation is increasing, GDP appears to be still steadily increasing, though slowly, and unemployment has been rising ever since that summer (now is over 6%). These economic indicators are not cause for panic though, and indeed can also be attributed partly to panicked investors overreacting to the mortgage problem. To look at poor market performance in the last 15 months or so and then determine that the whole economy is in for a crash is a mistake. This is almost like comparing short-term weather patterns with long-term climate change...though the economy is directly linked to the market, we have to remember the market's inefficiency and realize that right now the markets are probably undervalued significantly...it's a good time to buy stock.

T-Bills and other investments should obviously take higher rates to account for higher inflation when it comes, and the demand for these has been rising. I don't think rates will suddenly jump up though. While looking at the S&P 500 performance can give you an indicator of confidence in the market, looking at govt. bonds can give you an indicator of confidence in the actual economy and ability of govt. to repay its debts. Stock prices are better for watching the short-term market fluctuations, while t-bills are better to see the long-term economic outlook. I think we would have to be to the point of empty store shelves, mass unemployment, and an actual measured recession before you start to see a real drop in confidence for t-bills and the us govt.
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 09:32 pm
@Pangloss,
Pangloass, I agree with most of what you have said, except this.

Pangloss wrote:
Yes, I understand the collapse of the housing market, and am not trying to say that it was not the primary catalyst for this downturn in the market--that is undeniable.


I think you misunderstand my argument; the recent flucuations in the market are not very important relative the 'real problem' that I'm talking about. I wasn't trying to convince you that the housing problem was the immediate cause of the flucuations; we can agree that that is pretty obvious. I was trying to explain that the housing bubble itself is not the prime cause, but rather the easy money/inflationairy policy of the last several decades which allowed the bubble to inflate and ensured its collapse.

Pangloss wrote:
But you also can't discount the power of panic on the direction of the market. While the mortgage-related securities gave the needed spark for the market downturn, the sense of panic is really what has taken us down. Of course much of this is the legitimate sense of writing down and/or writing off some of these businesses that will likely collapse due to their investments. But the panic mentality is very powerful as well, and can ruin markets on its own, as we have seen in the past. Surely you don't believe that these incredible fluctuations in market prices we have been seeing are the result of efficient valuation?


No doubt panic has been central to the violence of market flucuations. However, the market is moved mostly by people who do very careful research, professionals investing on their own behalf or their institutions behalf. Little of the volume comes from ordinary people trading their stocks; most people with 401Ks or something similiar don't have that degree of control. My point is that, while the news has influenced the masses and agitated them, most traders have panicked for other reasons: though they might be equally irrational. Either way, panic is not controllable, unless you beleive in a large and organized conspiracy, which I do not, though I can see your concerns about that.
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Oct, 2008 10:16 pm
@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon;30148 wrote:

I think you misunderstand my argument; the recent flucuations in the market are not very important relative the 'real problem' that I'm talking about. I wasn't trying to convince you that the housing problem was the immediate cause of the flucuations; we can agree that that is pretty obvious. I was trying to explain that the housing bubble itself is not the prime cause, but rather the easy money/inflationairy policy of the last several decades which allowed the bubble to inflate and ensured its collapse.


I agree and see what you're saying...I wanted to mention in general that it's dangerous to compare short-term market effects with the long-term condition of the economy. This seems to be a common problem that people have.


Quote:

However, the market is moved mostly by people who do very careful research, professionals investing on their own behalf or their institutions behalf. Little of the volume comes from ordinary people trading their stocks; most people with 401Ks or something similiar don't have that degree of control. My point is that, while the news has influenced the masses and agitated them, most traders have panicked for other reasons: though they might be equally irrational.


Whoah. You mean the "people who do very careful research, professionals" who, on average, underperform all of the market indices? The volume does come from big fund movers, but the panic is very real, on wall street more than in the mainstream media. These are guys who stand to lose their jobs, and who are losing clients and portfolios and hence their way of life every day that the stocks tank. It is a panic situation, and everyone knows it and responds to it.

Quote:
Either way, panic is not controllable, unless you beleive in a large and organized conspiracy, which I do not, though I can see your concerns about that.


It can't be controlled exactly, but it can be helped or hindered. When you see people like Warren Buffet stepping in and investing billions of dollars in Goldman Sachs, that inspires hope (and markets rose accordingly). When you see the chairman of the federal reserve on national television mentioning "recession", that inspires fear (and the markets fell). Actions like these can have a real effect; JP Morgan was able to hold off the 1907 panic by dumping money into the banks.

Remember the words of Gordon Gekko?

Quote:

"Ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they' re sheep, and sheep get slaughtered."


Bulls and bears run in flocks on wall street...
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