@BrightNoon,
The fed. funds rate was just cut by another 50 points.
Really there is not much use in trying to prophesy what will happen with inflation...it has been increasing in recent data (Almost 2% just in June and July), and is expected to keep increasing.
I don't think the interest rates of t-bills are really going to tell you much. US govt.-issued bonds are still one of the safest investments you can hold. I also don't think that this current problem is really going to be a huge problem in the long run, and as I have said in other posts, it has been hyped up in the media to the point of absurdity (there is always a big focus on the economy during election times, and the housing problem is stoking the flames). There is still a lot of foreign investment in US companies, and exports have been doing well.
The problem in the market is mainly just a reminder that the market is far from being efficient. Most securities across the board were probably well overvalued before this drop began. I think the current drops we have seen recently are almost entirely a result of the classic wall street-panic mentality. This panic mentality is widespread, and is like a disease, infecting people throughout wall street, the media, and washington. Of course the mortgage screw-up is a real problem that has really been killing the lenders and homeowners involved, as well as others. But we have people like the fed. chairman Bernanke going on the news and talking about a "recession" well ahead of the data that would indicate a recession, and talkshow host after talkshow host, newspaper article after article, politician after politician reminding us all of our "current crisis". This state of panic is now so complete, that I find myself wondering whether or not it has been an orchestrated action...sociologists should be taking note on this situation for their next book outlining the best way to induce mass-panic.
-Begin Rampant Speculation/Rant-
I am not one to believe in conspiracies, but this state of panic that I see permeating our lives appears to be orchestrated, and hasn't it been convenient in convincing everyone to ram the "bail-out bill" through congress? The mass media is owned by large corporations who stand to benefit from the bill. The bill, as originally proposed, explicitly gave Paulson the power to make purchases with the $700b, with the inability of anyone else to regulate this activity. Though this clause was removed from the final version of the bill, the intent was clear, and Paulson's ridiculous power gain is still undeniable. We will just be extending massive amounts of credit (at the expense of everyone) to primarily benefit the wealthy (Paulson and his friends at the treasury dept., formerly of Goldman Sachs, now buying up their former i-bank's securities...they probably even still hold some stock options) in the short-term. The wealthy of course, as we have seen with AIG, will not change their lifestyles in the mean-time, and will be able to cash out without reaping the consequences of their gambling. Everyone else however will have to tough it out with the hopes that the market comes back with the help of the bailout. The US dept. of the treasury has become like a national investment bank, ruled by the ivy league boys' club, financed by the taxpayers, with free license to purchase these securities from friends at whatever price they deem is a good one (maybe they are worth nothing).
I do understand that this bailout will, in theory, help the overall economy avoid a disaster. But I don't think any data has shown that the mortgages would have caused a real disaster...perhaps a minor recession, which isn't really a "crisis". The real disaster has been the created panic. The economy is being "saved" when it really doesn't need to be, and the elite are profiting from their gambles while everyone else picks up the bill and hopes that they can pay it off.
This is real "robber baron" type stuff as it seems to me, similar to what Andrew Carnegie et al. were doing back in the 19th century (collusion here is probably widespread- those who safeguard of our money have a conflict of interest in keeping our money safe when they and their friends stand to benefit at our expense). The potential conflicts of interest here, and the massive restoration of wealth for gambling businessmen at the expense of massive debt for the public at large seems to me to be outrageous. Yet it is all due to our "crisis". So far, GDP has still been increasing in 2008, even though many "professional" financial analysts and economists have been talking about or writing about the "recession" for the last year or so now, which they should know is measured by two consecutive quarters of a decline in production.
Paulson's New Powers
Quote:Necessary Actions- The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation, the following:
(1) The Secretary shall have direct hiring authority with respect to the appointment of employees to administer this Act.
(2) Entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code.
(3) Designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Federal Government, and such institutions shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Federal Government as may be required.
(4) In order to provide the Secretary with the flexibility to manage troubled assets in a manner designed to minimize cost to the taxpayers, establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase, hold, and sell troubled assets and issue obligations.
(5) Issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities or purposes of this Act.
Conflicts of Interest
Quote:(a) Standards Required- The Secretary shall issue regulations or guidelines necessary to address and manage or to prohibit conflicts of interest that may arise in connection with the administration and execution of the authorities provided under this Act, including...
Nice...Paulson has authoritative power here, without limitation, and yet he is also the one who is going to issue the "regulations or guidelines" as to the conflicts of interest. That, in itself, is a conflict of interest, right in the bill. The wording here is nice too. Not only can he decide on managing the conflicts of interest, but he can simply issue guidelines if he wants...just as good as regulations, right? He doesn't have to prohibit conflicts of interest either...he can simply address and manage them ("or" prohibit).
Congress may as well have just left this bit of text in the final version of the bill as Paulson had first proposed it:
Quote:Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
The passed bill does have a section for review and audits, but of course we all know how likely it will be that they use these powers to prevent any wrong-doing. (Just like how the SEC does wonders in preventing insider trading).