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The Current Crisis

 
 
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Oct, 2008 08:06 pm
@Didymos Thomas,
Didymos Thomas wrote:
No, that's not my argument. My argument is that because an ideal is impossible, we should not suggest pursuing said ideal damn the costs. We should take into consideration reality.

Okay... All actions have a goal, but a goal is not necessarily an ideal. My goal might be to go from smoking twenty cigarettes a day to ten a day, even though the ideal is not to smoke at all.

You example demonstrates how having an ideal can be beneficial. Your distinction between goal and ideal is arbitrary; a goal, as you have used it, is just an end which is not the final end. Pursuing is the operative word; ideals can not generally be reached. I wish to pursue the ideal of the free market; you, the ideal of utilitarianism. In other words, I want to act so as to make the market more free, while you want to act so as to give the most people the greatest prosperity. Both are ideals. Action without an ideal has no purpose, by definition.

Didymos Thomas wrote:
Sort of; my ideal, I think, would result in such circumstances, ideally.


As I said, your ideal is utilitarianism, unless you are suggesting that your plan is to simply act, in no particular manner, and hope that general prosperity is the result. Otherwise, you have a goal, an ideal.

Didymos Thomas wrote:
But I know better than to suggest steps towards said ideal despite real world concerns; like cutting taxes no matter the circumstances as some suggest.


Cutting taxes has nothing to do with the free market. Low taxes are generally preferable to high though. You mistake Reaganomics for laizee faire economics.

Didymos Thomas wrote:
We can get into the history if you like; I'm a history major. However, understand that I'm going to dispute just about every word of your summary of American history.


Feel free.
Didymos Thomas wrote:
In any case, I believe capitalism has failed because it has, according to it's own standards.


How, if you don't mind?

Didymos Thomas wrote:
The very principles upon which supply-side economics are founded have been shown to be faulty. Even Keynesian economics has fallen short and needs revision.


That is what you and most socialistic, would-be directors of the economy fail to understand; capitalism does not favor anyone; everyone has exactly the same rights and responsibilities under the law. Supply side is a misnomer: as if production is favored over consumption. Keynesian economics is absurd and could not be less functional or distant from laizze faire. How you are comparing their principles I don't know. Freedom is the ideal, not the advantage of one group over another. It is natural that some will be more successful than others; we are not all equally talented or equally lucky.

Didymos Thomas wrote:
They do not contradict. The ideal of laissez faire capitalism is impossible to reach. That's a fact. Also, supply side economics has been shown to be principally flawed (Says Law doesn't work, folks) by economists. Even the replacement for supply side, Keynesian economics, has some flaws.


When was supply side economics tested? During the Reagan demonstration I suppose? Was there not at that time an SEC, a Fannie Mae, a Freddie Mac, Welfare, Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc.? That was not laizze faire, not even close. The principles were in no way tested and proven faulty because they never existed at all at that time. Anytime before the First World War, however, would be a fine example of those principles at work.

I'm not going to address the other points. Here are my remarks Candide, as you will henceforth be known.

A government elected by a majority of the population (imbeciles) will not be of the highest caliber; it will be filled not with the best minds, but the best speaking voices, the best actors, etc. Moreover, that government will change regularly, along with its policies. To suppose that such a stupid, slow and erratic entity can effectively understand, let alone regulate, an enormously complex, world-wide economy is extremely optimistic. Even if disaster, caused by poorly designed, implemented or contradictory regulation did not occur, the best that could be hoped for is stagnation. To deny the risks of the free market is to deny its possibilities.

If you find morality to be the first priority of government, as you indicated, let me point you to Robespierre and the Republic of Virtue.
0 Replies
 
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 07:57 am
@Didymos Thomas,
Didymos Thomas wrote:
MFtP:
Says Law doesn't work. Demand can exist without supply, and the fact that a supply exists does not necessarily mean that a demand exists for said supply.


Actually, I don't think anyone really denies the logic that demand is dependent upon supply. That an individual can only demand utility to the amount he or she produces is a pretty basic accepted truth.

With that said, I understand that there are many, many critics of Say's Law, and I am prepared to defend Say's contributions (note that the abundance of economic theory built on Say's Law means that what some consider to be the work of JB Say is actually the work of someone else) at length. What I need to know is whether you are saying that Say is incorrect because you have found flaws in what he proposed, or are you saying that Say is incorrect because you have heard others say it.

Quote:
I also think the modern corporate form violates free market ideas. I'm at a loss as to why you think corporations are natural if you take issue with corporate personhood. Prior to corporate personhood corporations were organizations extremely restricted by the state. Basically, they were state organizations operated by a few private investors.


I don't think corporate personhood would be respected without government intervention, but corporate form of ownership and liability would be an successful business model without government intervention.

Quote:
Who cares if they offer the "best service", whatever that means, if as a side product of those services is atrocity after atrocity.
But let's think about this "best service" notion. Which service is better: the fine silk coat that cost five human lives, or the rough wool coat that required no human blood? I vote the later.


Ugh. This could go on forever until you understand where I am coming from.

When I say best service, I mean provide the best utility to the consumer at the lowest cost.

I also oppose aggression in all forms, except in securing compensation for past unjust aggression. To imply that I would support a system that allows for someone to kill people in order to produce a coat is another strawman and is insulting.

With that said, if by "side product" you refer to externalities, I will recognize that argument, but I need more to offer any sort of counter.

Quote:
Because the economic formulas upon which free market capitalism is based have flaws.


So far you have made a vague statement about something resembling externalities, brought up corporate ownership, and stated that Say's Law is wrong, but you have have offered up nothing for me to counter. Is the free market perfect? No, but I am not a utopian.

If you want to keep making these unsupported statements, I will simply stop responding and start gainsaying.

Quote:
I never claimed that capitalism generated greed, I said capitalism was fueled by greed.


I explained in some detail why, for your statement to be a relevant attack on capitalism, capitalism must generate greed. Greed is present in any system, and greed will fuel any economic system.

So if I were to take greed as a particular failure of capitalism, I must assume that capitalism generates greed.
Didymos Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 12:46 pm
@Mr Fight the Power,
Quote:
If you beleive that capitalism has failed, that is because you have evaluated its performance by your own ideal; indeed, it has not been equally beneifial to all and has ensured the existance of classes and of the poor. However, it is also responsible for the wealth of the U.S. that you would like to redistribute; Historically, America has grown strong under small government and laizze faire economics and has declined, since about the middle of the 20th century, after the imposition of elaborate social systems, higher taxation, larger government, etc.


Laissez faire policy is partly responsible for the accumulation of wealth in the US, but this wealth has gone almost exclusively to those who were already wealthy. America has managed to grown stronger under regimes that both grow and shrink the government. However, laissez faire policy has been unable to function for the benefit of anyone, including the wealthy, in times of financial crisis. Larger government and regulation was needed to bring the nation out of the Great Depression. America's decline is not due to social programs, higher taxation or higher government. Instead, we have declined because of massive defense spending just as Ike warned.

Quote:
You example demonstrates how having an ideal can be beneficial. Your distinction between goal and ideal is arbitrary; a goal, as you have used it, is just an end which is not the final end. Pursuing is the operative word; ideals can not generally be reached. I wish to pursue the ideal of the free market; you, the ideal of utilitarianism. In other words, I want to act so as to make the market more free, while you want to act so as to give the most people the greatest prosperity. Both are ideals. Action without an ideal has no purpose, by definition.


Again, you make some strange claims regarding ideals. Action without an ideal can have a purpose; my previous example illustrates this fact. The distinction between goal and ideal is hardly arbitrary as a difference does exist, even if the goal is influenced by an ideal.

In any case, I have not derrided ideals at all. Instead, I have suggested that we not ignore reality for the sake of an ideal.

Quote:
As I said, your ideal is utilitarianism, unless you are suggesting that your plan is to simply act, in no particular manner, and hope that general prosperity is the result. Otherwise, you have a goal, an ideal.


My ideal is not utilitarianism. Utilitarianism allows for all sorts of abuse of individual liberties.

Quote:
Cutting taxes has nothing to do with the free market. Low taxes are generally preferable to high though. You mistake Reaganomics for laizee faire economics.


First, I criticize both Reaganomics and laissez faire. Second, laissez faire does call for low taxes, and for taxes to be lowered and eliminated whenever possible. Taxes are type of government regulation.

Quote:
How, if you don't mind?


The economics of pure capitalism do not hold up. I made this point with MFtP if you'd like to follow that line of thought.

Quote:
That is what you and most socialistic, would-be directors of the economy fail to understand; capitalism does not favor anyone; everyone has exactly the same rights and responsibilities under the law. Supply side is a misnomer: as if production is favored over consumption. Keynesian economics is absurd and could not be less functional or distant from laizze faire. How you are comparing their principles I don't know. Freedom is the ideal, not the advantage of one group over another. It is natural that some will be more successful than others; we are not all equally talented or equally lucky.


You're invocation of social Darwinism is, well, a bit scary to be honest with you. Not to mention the fact that social Darwinism has been ridiculed to death. Literally.

Actually, capitalism does favor some people. Capitalism favors those who have more capital, who have greater resources.

Keynesian economics is hardly absurd; Keynesian economics was the replacement for laissez faire, and managed to bring the US out of the Great Depression.

I'm comparing their principles the same way economists compare. By looking at the formulas and looking at the empirical data. Both Keynsian economics and laissez faire are flawed. Laissez faire was an economic progress, so was the development of Keynesian economics, but more developments will come and already Keynesian economics is on the way out. That's natural, this happens in all sciences, not just economics.

Quote:
When was supply side economics tested? During the Reagan demonstration I suppose? Was there not at that time an SEC, a Fannie Mae, a Freddie Mac, Welfare, Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc.? That was not laizze faire, not even close. The principles were in no way tested and proven faulty because they never existed at all at that time. Anytime before the First World War, however, would be a fine example of those principles at work.


Even prior to the Great War, the nation was not laissez faire. But I tell you what, I'll take you up on the offer. Prior to the Great War, big business used government troops and police to kill and brutalize striking workers. Fine example, indeed.

In any case, supply side has been tested. In a pure form? No, I've already stated that much. Doesn't mean that supply side has not been tested at all. Again, Say's Law has long been discredited.

Quote:
Actually, I don't think anyone really denies the logic that demand is dependent upon supply. That an individual can only demand utility to the amount he or she produces is a pretty basic accepted truth.

With that said, I understand that there are many, many critics of Say's Law, and I am prepared to defend Say's contributions (note that the abundance of economic theory built on Say's Law means that what some consider to be the work of JB Say is actually the work of someone else) at length. What I need to know is whether you are saying that Say is incorrect because you have found flaws in what he proposed, or are you saying that Say is incorrect because you have heard others say it.


I'm saying Say's Law is flawed for the same reason I say evolution is true. Consensus among experts. If you want to defend Say's Law, don't waste your time here. Instead, publish a paper and shock the world of economics. Who knows, maybe they'll give you the Nobel Prize.

Quote:
I don't think corporate personhood would be respected without government intervention, but corporate form of ownership and liability would be an successful business model without government intervention.


That's the thing, though: either we give corporations personhood or we have corporations strictly controlled by the government, created for a very particular purpose and limited to that role by the government.

Those are the two models of the corporation. I'm not aware of any other model, though there may very well be a way to reorganize corporations so that they are neither regulated by government and so that they also lack personhood.

Quote:
Ugh. This could go on forever until you understand where I am coming from.

When I say best service, I mean provide the best utility to the consumer at the lowest cost.

I also oppose aggression in all forms, except in securing compensation for past unjust aggression. To imply that I would support a system that allows for someone to kill people in order to produce a coat is another strawman and is insulting.

With that said, if by "side product" you refer to externalities, I will recognize that argument, but I need more to offer any sort of counter.


I do understand, maybe that's the problem. My economic thoughts were almost identical to yours a few years ago, though probably not quite as well developed. As my thoughts developed I noticed the deep flaws that I am now explaning to you.

Right, best service, most utility, lowest cost. And right, you oppose aggresion. So, instead of best service, did you mean the best service with the stipulation that said service does not cause harm to another person? If you mean bottom line best service, this means best service even if people are harmed in the process.

Besides, I think this will go on all day; too many topics at once.

Oh, and I do not mean just externalities, though those would be included. I also mean harm done to those involved in the economic transaction - the worker and consumer included.

Quote:
So far you have made a vague statement about something resembling externalities, brought up corporate ownership, and stated that Say's Law is wrong, but you have have offered up nothing for me to counter. Is the free market perfect? No, but I am not a utopian.


Hey, there we go, the free market has flaws! Wasn't so tough, was it?

Quote:
I explained in some detail why, for your statement to be a relevant attack on capitalism, capitalism must generate greed. Greed is present in any system, and greed will fuel any economic system.

So if I were to take greed as a particular failure of capitalism, I must assume that capitalism generates greed.


Greed is present in any system, yes. But capitalism depends upon greed. Economies can be arranged such that they do not depend upon greed. That's a failure of capitalism and other systems, their reliance upon greed. We've made greed the fuel for our economy, rather than making need the fuel of our economy.

However, I would also argue that capitalism does at least promote greed. Because greed is the fuel required for economic success, greed becomes an increasingly valuable asset. Thus greed is promoted by the system.
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 02:11 pm
@BrightNoon,
A bit closer to earth, I was interested in Alan Greenspan's comments. He said that he had been wrong in his career-long resistance to market regulation because he had made an assumption that proved wrong. That assumption was that businesses will always act in their own best interest.

As it turns out, businesses acted on gross denial, delusion, and fantasy. The premise was that holding mortgages is lucrative, and that it's ok if poor risk people default, because then the lender owns real estate and get, real estate never loses value, right? That's how companies accumulated $40 of bad debt for every $1 of assets. That's what unregulated fantasy does on a global scale.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 02:50 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes wrote:
A bit closer to earth, I was interested in Alan Greenspan's comments. He said that he had been wrong in his career-long resistance to market regulation because he had made an assumption that proved wrong. That assumption was that businesses will always act in their own best interest.

As it turns out, businesses acted on gross denial, delusion, and fantasy. The premise was that holding mortgages is lucrative, and that it's ok if poor risk people default, because then the lender owns real estate and get, real estate never loses value, right? That's how companies accumulated $40 of bad debt for every $1 of assets. That's what unregulated fantasy does on a global scale.


Or it could have been his ultra-aggressive lowering of interest rates that completely eradicated any self-regulating properties that credit markets may have had. He was not negligent, he was proactive in creating this disaster (and many, many sources knew this, read any number of issues of The Economist over the last 8 years to see). He knows this, and he knows he abandoned the principles he had 40 years ago, now he is weaseling. Just like every other career civil servant.

He eliminated the natural rules of the system that he knew was there and then acted like the rules never existed.

Suppose 50 people were all in a room together. There is security, but there is no reason to assume that the people in the room would be uncivil to each other. Now assume all security leaves, but before they do, they decide to leave $100,000 dollars in cash in the middle of the room. Bedlam ensues, people are stampeded and beaten. Upon questioning the security guards say, "How were we to know that people just aren't civil to each other?"

That is what happened here.

Greenspan lowered federal interest rates to record lows, all major lenders are practically insured against failure, and money is flooded into the markets. All of a sudden lenders go crazy as all of these changes made for extremely easy money with almost no risk of loss. When interest rates are raised and normalcy begins to return, Greenspan has the chutzpah to place blame for the idiocy of the lenders on the system. Whats worse is that 20 years ago, he would have explained to you that the actions he engaged in as fed chairman would have blown up credit markets. He is a villain.

The amazing thing is that everyone is willing to believe the man who has already completely displayed his incompetence.
0 Replies
 
zolasdisciple
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 02:55 pm
@Didymos Thomas,
have no doubt bush knew what he was doing. he pretends to be dumb while he and cheyney ruin america and dont take responsibility. and there is no doubt capitalism is fueled on greed. which is very sad. this is the greatest country on earth yet we are proud of greedy.:letme-at-em:
0 Replies
 
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 03:06 pm
@BrightNoon,
DT,

I don't want to go into anymore of this particularly, but I do want to point out one thing.

The principle idea behind Say's Law is that general overproduction is not possible, rather particular overproduction in certain markets IS possible if government or some other violent upheaval occurs to boost production there over other markets. The idea behind this is that commodities trade for commodities, so production is all that allows for consumption.

If we examine financial markets as Say would have, as nothing but a service for the easy exchange of goods and capital, we find them to be no different from other markets. When we further add the fact that financial markets have been horribly bolstered over the last decade, to the point that it is common knowledge that there is a housing and lending bubble of epic proportions, so that lending as outpaced production in other markets, we find that an analysis of the credit crisis from Say's perspective makes perfect sense.
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 08:25 pm
@BrightNoon,
Low interest rates encourage people to borrow, it doesn't encourage people to make high risk loans as I understand it.
Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Oct, 2008 11:10 pm
@Aedes,
Aedes wrote:
A bit closer to earth, I was interested in Alan Greenspan's comments. He said that he had been wrong in his career-long resistance to market regulation because he had made an assumption that proved wrong. That assumption was that businesses will always act in their own best interest.

As it turns out, businesses acted on gross denial, delusion, and fantasy. The premise was that holding mortgages is lucrative, and that it's ok if poor risk people default, because then the lender owns real estate and get, real estate never loses value, right? That's how companies accumulated $40 of bad debt for every $1 of assets. That's what unregulated fantasy does on a global scale.


Is anybody that surprised that Alan Greenspan's economic policy crippled the nation? Come on this guy is a disciple of Ayn Rand. Any nation that follow the ideas formulated by Objectivism deserves what it has coming. Much of it grew out of fantasy anyway in terrible novels, so this should have been more than expected.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 12:24 am
@Didymos Thomas,
Didymos Thomas;29219 wrote:

Keynesian economics is hardly absurd; Keynesian economics was the replacement for laissez faire, and managed to bring the US out of the Great Depression.


This idea of government expenditures necessarily being expansionary is due to the belief in a flawed Keynesian multiplier analysis. This belief is not based on any empirical evidence of the multiplier effect actually working out, or by any logical analysis. Naturally politicians will support an economic policy which allows them to spend more, regardless of the validity of this policy.

There is also absolutely no proof that "keynesian economics" or the new deal brought the US out of the depression. They teach this in history class, but the truth is that there has never been any economic analysis to support this idea. Correlation does not prove causation. The depression is the one event in history that all will point to as proof that free market economics have failed, yet Friedman correctly pointed out years ago that the depression was caused by a mismanagement of monetary policy which resulted in rapid deflation. Before the market crash, the federal reserve system began to cut the supply of money in order to reduce stock speculation. As banks began to close down, the federal reserve actually reduced the amount of credit it was willing to extend. Between 1929 and 1933, the money supply fell by more than 30%. This was a failure of policy, not of the market.
Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 08:25 am
@Pangloss,
Pangloss wrote:

There is also absolutely no proof that "keynesian economics" or the new deal brought the US out of the depression. They teach this in history class, but the truth is that there has never been any economic analysis to support this idea.


Correct me if I am wrong, but technically World War II finished off the Great Depression. If I remember right from my Freshman college Social History class, while the New Deal help easy the bad economic conditions, WWII ended up causing the economy to boom.

Sure, we are in a couple of wars now, and the economy has continued to sour, but I think that is more due to war just not being as profitable anymore. To a few people it is, but to everyone else it is a vacuum cleaner.
Joe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 08:58 am
@Theaetetus,
Theaetetus wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong, but technically World War II finished off the Great Depression. If I remember right from my Freshman college Social History class, while the New Deal help easy the bad economic conditions, WWII ended up causing the economy to boom.

Sure, we are in a couple of wars now, and the economy has continued to sour, but I think that is more due to war just not being as profitable anymore. To a few people it is, but to everyone else it is a vacuum cleaner.


I think its criminal how much money has been unaccounted for in this war. There are a couple whistle blowers that were accountants for this stuff and its been reported they were told to not worry about these issues.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 09:04 am
@BrightNoon,
New Deal spending did stimulate the economy and get things moving again, but of course it was really the market that once again brought the economy back to life. The problem is that ever since the great depression, politicians have pointed towards the event to justify the failure of less regulated markets, when really the greatest case has been made that failed policy caused the depression. Then we see massive government expenditures on a regular basis, many times for the supposed reason of stimulating the economy...but the type of spending that we had in the new deal is not a policy that should be implemented on a regular basis. It was necessary to get things flowing again initially during the depression; it's a problem when politicians use that one rare instance of a need for massive spending increases to justify spending more at all times, simply to help the economy.

The depression was caused by failed govt. policy, and thus we needed govt. to step in and initiate a bail out. The "crisis" that we have now though is really being hyped up in the media and financial industry...the voices we hear about the bail-out being a necessity are all those of pseudo-capitalist/conservative big-business advocates, and not those of people who really want to avoid government intervention. They are happy to invoke the names of Hayek or Friedman when the free market policies work to serve big business and conservatives, but they are not of the real school that wants govt. to butt out.
0 Replies
 
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 09:14 am
@Aedes,
Aedes wrote:
Low interest rates encourage people to borrow, it doesn't encourage people to make high risk loans as I understand it.


Yes, low interest rates will entice people into borrowing.

Banks, by law, are required to maintain a certain amount of reserves on hand that is proportionate to their lending, typically around 10%. Say a bank has issued loans of 10 million, it must maintain a reserve of 1 million in cash on hand. If the bank falls below this level, it must borrow money to get back to it.

So if the fed funds rate is low, it is cheaper for a bank to borrow the funds to maintain this reserve and therefore they are encouraged to lend.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 09:32 am
@Theaetetus,
Theaetetus wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong, but technically World War II finished off the Great Depression. If I remember right from my Freshman college Social History class, while the New Deal help easy the bad economic conditions, WWII ended up causing the economy to boom.

Sure, we are in a couple of wars now, and the economy has continued to sour, but I think that is more due to war just not being as profitable anymore. To a few people it is, but to everyone else it is a vacuum cleaner.


Unemployment remained relatively stable and high throughout the New Deal years, being over 17% in 1939 (it was around 3% prior to the depression). The end of the depression coincided with the end of policies maintaining artificially high wages and massive government spending.
Theaetetus
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 10:22 am
@Mr Fight the Power,
Mr. Fight the Power wrote:
Unemployment remained relatively stable and high throughout the New Deal years, being over 17% in 1939 (it was around 3% prior to the depression). The end of the depression coincided with the end of policies maintaining artificially high wages and massive government spending.


The war took care of the unemployment rate, as attested by the women that flooded the work place to manufacture supplies for the war. Of course the government continued massive spending, but the war profits that came in way exceeded that spending. There is a reason why war became seen as a lucrative business to be heavily involved in.
0 Replies
 
Aedes
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Oct, 2008 08:28 pm
@Mr Fight the Power,
Mr. Fight the Power;29345 wrote:
Yes, low interest rates will entice people into borrowing.

Banks, by law, are required to maintain a certain amount of reserves on hand that is proportionate to their lending, typically around 10%. Say a bank has issued loans of 10 million, it must maintain a reserve of 1 million in cash on hand. If the bank falls below this level, it must borrow money to get back to it.

So if the fed funds rate is low, it is cheaper for a bank to borrow the funds to maintain this reserve and therefore they are encouraged to lend.

I heard a very long expose on this subject on NPR recently. The amount of liquidity in the world has doubled in the last decade, mainly in developing countries. So there was tremendous interest in investing in lucrative securities like mortgages that was funded from national treasuries, who poured money into the likes of Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, etc. And the investment companies bought up bundles of mortages, which were bundled by lower level investors, which were readily sold by low level banks and brokers.

So while the interest rate climate made borrowing easier, the REAL motivation was from the 'trickle down' effect of huge investors seeing the mortgage market as a get rich quick scheme. This made things so competitive for mortgage brokers that to avoid getting squeezed out they relentlessly lowered credit / asset standards for borrowers.

In other words, interest rates can be 1% but that still doesn't mean that "Joe the Plumber" can buy a McMansion for $1 million unless someone is willing to assume the risk to give him a mortgage. The low interest rates might have distracted potential buyers into thinking they could afford houses above their means (or with interbank lending, distracted banks into thinking their mortgage-backed assets were worth more than they really were). But again, the problem is that the power ALWAYS lies in the hand of the lender, not the borrower, and there was no meaningful or realistic 'risk assessment' done by lenders. This was independent of the Fed's interest rate.
BrightNoon
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Oct, 2008 11:48 pm
@Pangloss,
Laissez faire policy is partly responsible for the accumulation of wealth in the US, but this wealth has gone almost exclusively to those who were already wealthy.

How do you account for the enormous increase in the standard of living? The wealthy have benefited most, but not alone. I argue that a socialism that would suppress the possibility of such inequality deprives everyone. Everyone can be equal only if everyone is poor.



To imagine that any system can offer permanent, uninterrupted gains in prosperity is absurd. Failures are as necessary to capitalism as successes, as competition is the vital requirement.

Larger government and regulation was needed to bring the nation out of the Great Depression.

That is unproven and, in my opinion, false. See all the posts of everyone else. I won't repeat them now.

America's decline is not due to social programs, higher taxation or higher government. Instead, we have declined because of massive defense spending just as Ike warned.

America's economic decline is due largely to the inevitable result of prosperity; loss of competitiveness abroad. However, overspending, enabled by a foolish monetary philosophy, is the next greatest culprit. Defense spending accounted for only 21% of federal spending in 2007, while just social security, Medicare and Medicaid accounted for 40%. All other, smaller social programs and the interest on the national debt accounted for 9% each.

You're invocation of social Darwinism is, well, a bit scary to be honest with you. Not to mention the fact that social Darwinism has been ridiculed to death. Literally.

I claimed that class inequality is natural in laizze faire capitalism, due to the inequality of talent and of luck. I did not invoke social Darwinism; I never made any claims as to the superiority (genetic or otherwise) of the people who succeed under such a system. If you do not account for success by talent or luck, what other factors remain?

I have three other points:

  • I think we must not have the same definition of an ideal. I mean an objective, a guiding philosophy, an end: something by which actions can be judged effective or ineffective, proper or improper. Re you smoking example; what meaning has the goal of reducing smoking by half if you haven't got the ideal of not wanting to smoke, of saying smoking is bad, etc? This whole argument is stupid frankly, so I hope this settles it. My ideal you know, your ideal, if not utilitarianism, approaches that. You might say that we share the same ideals regarding personal liberties, except that you do not consider property rights, the sanctity of contractual agreements, etc. as such rights.

  • Wow. I was really blown away by your historical analysis History Major. :sarcastic: I never claimed that pure laizze faire capitalism existed before the Great War, only that it was then closer to realization. I have no objection to unions at all; their suppression was inappropriate. My point was that the enormous economic progress of all levels of society in the later 19th and early 20th century was possible only because of the dynamism of the free market.

  • If possible, please refrain from attacking me point for point, simply because it's ungainly. If you must, I understand. This will be the last such post by me.
Mr Fight the Power
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 07:23 am
@Aedes,
Aedes wrote:
I heard a very long expose on this subject on NPR recently. The amount of liquidity in the world has doubled in the last decade, mainly in developing countries. So there was tremendous interest in investing in lucrative securities like mortgages that was funded from national treasuries, who poured money into the likes of Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, etc. And the investment companies bought up bundles of mortages, which were bundled by lower level investors, which were readily sold by low level banks and brokers.

So while the interest rate climate made borrowing easier, the REAL motivation was from the 'trickle down' effect of huge investors seeing the mortgage market as a get rich quick scheme. This made things so competitive for mortgage brokers that to avoid getting squeezed out they relentlessly lowered credit / asset standards for borrowers.

In other words, interest rates can be 1% but that still doesn't mean that "Joe the Plumber" can buy a McMansion for $1 million unless someone is willing to assume the risk to give him a mortgage. The low interest rates might have distracted potential buyers into thinking they could afford houses above their means (or with interbank lending, distracted banks into thinking their mortgage-backed assets were worth more than they really were). But again, the problem is that the power ALWAYS lies in the hand of the lender, not the borrower, and there was no meaningful or realistic 'risk assessment' done by lenders. This was independent of the Fed's interest rate.


You have to realize that lowered credit standards are a result of increased lending, as obviously lenders who wish to lend more (and I explained why banks wished to do so because of the Feds target rate) must find more people to lend to.

And yes, according to the CAPM, a lower fed funds rate does alter risk assessment. All else the same the Risk-Free rate falls, expected returns rise, and the riskier the security (higher beta coefficient) the greater the increase in expected earnings, and therefore the higher calculated price.
0 Replies
 
Pangloss
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Oct, 2008 08:17 am
@BrightNoon,
BrightNoon;29616 wrote:
I was really blown away by your historical analysis History Major. I never claimed that pure laizze faire capitalism existed before the Great War, only that it was then closer to realization. I have no objection to unions at all; their suppression was inappropriate. My point was that the enormous economic progress of all levels of society in the later 19th and early 20th century was possible only because of the dynamism of the free market.


Technically, how is a union any different from a monopoly that should be illegal under the anti-trust act? Their goal is to work together in order to restrict supply (of workers), thus keeping prices (wages) up. Those who are left without the union card are out of luck...

I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who would disagree that the free market was mostly responsible for the economic progress here in America. And while I don't want to attack anyone for their choice on major in college, it is problematic to attempt to analyze economic behaviors and outcomes if all you have learned about the economy is from history courses. Unfortunately, most history departments overwhelmingly employ left-wing professors who have aligned themselves against the right in all things. This means that along with bashing republican presidents for their war mongering and lack of spending on social programs, they are in the habit of attacking anything to do with capitalism and the free market, simply because these things have become associated with Republicans and the right-wing over time, especially since the Reagan years. Aside from this bias, it is difficult to understand economic decisions and outcomes if you have not specifically studied economics; reading a history book does not explain these things. For one example, it is well-known that economic policy does not show measurable results in the economy for a significant amount of time; there is a lag. If you just view a timeline of economic policy decisions along with economic indicators, you might falsely associate current economic problems as being the direct result of some policy instituted shortly before the measurements were made.

It is a huge mistake to invoke the great depression when arguing for economic policy. It is like bringing up Hitler and the holocaust in order to argue against an authoritarian policy of governing--you are looking at the most extreme event in order to judge what is good policy. Excessive spending was the only thing we could do during the depression to try to get the economy (read: the market and capitalism) moving again (after govt. messed it up). It might have helped, it might have not. If we had just freed up the federal reserve system with greater lending and lower interest rates, it could have been over about the same time as it was. The point is that we don't know. To look at the depression and say that intervention saved the economy, thus it will help now is just an invalid argument. To look at the depression and say here is proof of the failures of the market is not true.

If you want real proof of the benefits of capitalism and the free market under normal economic conditions, just look at the countries we have around the world and their success. Compare North Korea to South Korea...Hong Kong and Japan to mainland China...one of the most economically successful countries in the UK right now (if not the most) is Ireland, and it is in large part due to their non-interventionist policy now and very low rate of taxation on businesses.

I am not advocating that we institute a true free market; of course there needs to be regulation. But the point of spending, regulating, and taxing that we are at now is out of control. The answer to this current problem is to free up the market and give people the incentive to invest and start businesses and take out loans again. We don't need more taxes, spending, and regulation. As for the bail-out, that is excessive government intervention that might ease things in the short-term, but in the long-term is harmful for upholding the capitalist ideals of our country. Those individuals taking out the mortgages, and those banks who were too leveraged in giving out mortgages all made mistakes. The market is there to reward risk takers, but to punish gamblers. There was gambling on both sides of these deals, and they shouldn't be bailed out. Let the banks fall like they have always done as a result of their bad decisions, and let new business come in to take over the market. We have already seen this occurring with massive investments from people like Warren Buffet, who know now is a good time to buy in. The market will bail itself out in time, and we don't need govt. stepping in and buying up wall street.
 

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