If thats the case then schools like Princeton and Stanford are investing time in teaching tools along with the underlying sciences that govern the modelling "Shortcuts" Geologic models deal with independent variables that are, either by time or scale, are diffciult to measure in the field.
An outcome base mnodelling is a bit of a communication tool. Try to explain a math model to a jury .MAny times a deliberative body is tasked with making decisions and they often get "buffaloed" by models. That is a fact.
Many modellers are, like IDers, in that they truly believe that they have the capability to describe any geoilogic situation accurately. A model is a good tool for approximation and estimation at best. Its never a design tool.
ANyway, our terms for modelling may vary between us. I use finite element and analytical models with iteration terms. I will use a model to "guesstimate" how far a plume of rare earth elements may be mobilized in a ground water body. I am usually off by 100% of the predicted distance. This is ok to us because we can check this in the field by direct measurements in sampling ports. Geophysical models to predict earthquakes are stillnot very dependable because we are missing important variables . WE all know how valuable weather models are. When there is a strrong possibility that natural systems are modifiable during the predictive runs, we can only hope that we have a "best guess'.
You seem to trust your models more than I trust scientific natural system models. Id never design an ore extraction system based on a MODFLOW output. Id demand much more field data, however the model would help us corral the important areas of inquiry .
Trend surface (3rd dreivative) models are a statistical trick to map possible ore bodies based on several variables. SOrt of like kriging. its a good tool but hardly exact.
Thers too much money invested in mine designs to rely upon models as anything more than a first approximation .
You say that your involved in financial modelling. PWrhaps you can tell me how most financial models missed this latest downturn