I started writing this earlier today, but I'm late with the topline numbers from CA, Cyclo's already posted them :-D.
But there's numbers from Massachusetts too: the top line numbers there too are encouraging for Obama, but I hope fellow Obama supporters will read through the details about the crosstabs as well.
New Polls in California, Massachusetts encouraging for Obama (but heed the small print)
Rasmussen did a first poll in
Massachusetts on Jan 28.; after the SC primaries, about around the time of Obama's event with the Kennedy's, and before the Florida primaries and Edwards dropping out. It has Clinton leading Obama, but only by 6 points, 43% to 37%.
In the previous two weeks, two subsequent Survey USA polls had Hillary leading by 33 and 37 points respectively, her in the upper 50s and him in the lower 20s. There's no apples-to-apples comparison, but definitely a hint of the race having fundamentally changed at the time the poll was conducted.
A day later, on Jan. 29, Rasmussen polled
California, "in the hours immediately following Florida's Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race". Here, it also had Clinton leading Obama, but just by 3 points.
43% for Hillary, 40% for Barack. Thats the smallest margin for Hillary measured in the last two months, and it's also the highest rating for Obama in at least two months.
Two warnings to go with that one though: Hillary's rating is still pretty much in line with what she's received throughout the month; and the last time Rasmussen polled the state, it had Hillary the lowest of all roughly concurrent poll. The result of that is that the apples-to-apples comparison between that Rasmussen poll (conducted Jan. 14) and this one actually shows both candidates going up equally: Hillary wins 5 points compared to two weeks earlier, and Obama 7 points. Edwards loses three, and the number of undecideds dropped by 9.
Some of the crosstabs are predictable.
The gender gap rules. In California, "Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women." In Massachusetts, "Clinton leads by sixteen percentage points among women while Obama leads by five points among men."
Clinton also romps home among those most concerned about jobs and the economy:
Forty-six percent (46%) [of likely Democratic primary voters in California] said the top voting issue is the economy while 29% mentioned the War in Iraq. Clinton led by fifteen among those who view the economy as the highest priority. Obama led by eight among those who view the War as the top voting issue.
..
The economy is seen as the top issue for 51% of [of likely Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts] while 24% named the War in Iraq as the top priority. Clinton leads by twenty percentage points among those who see the economy as the key issue. Obama leads by ten percentage points among those focused on the War.
Some crosstabs, however, run counter to widely held views here on A2K.
Clinton, for example, is seen no less favourably than Obama among Democrats, and no less able to win the general elections:
Overall, 78% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in Massachusetts have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-seven percent (77%) say the same about Clinton. [..] Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of California's Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 79%.
(This is the kind of thing I was referring to on the Obama thread last night, Cyclo.)
On the good news front, the poll shows that
Edwards voters in Massachusetts prefer Obama over Hillary: 78% has a favorable opinion of Obama while 58% has a favorable opinion of Clinton.
And on the question that arose after SC of whether
Obama can still score among white voters, the California poll has this:
Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters
California is no South Carolina of course, and it sucks about Latinos, but still worth a mention!
