Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

revel wrote:

I normally don't follow these things this closely and I confess all this projecting and margins, delagates and superdelegates is just confusing me. So; after admitting I am a dunce with this stuff; just tell me; does everything look ok for obama and does Hillary have a shot at beating him now that is seems she won tonight?

No, Hillary still has a math problem and if things work out the way they're expected and designed to do, Hillary will win the state but Obama may end up with a larger allocation of pledged delegates depending on the turnout in the larger precints.

It won't be enough to cement a victory for him in the minds of the delegates. The battle will continue on until June 3rd.

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By the way, there is also a Republican primary today. McCain has 73% of the vote with the rest (some 50,000 votes) still going to Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee.

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My computer died on me... had to reboot.

Anyway, with almost half of precincts counted, NPR has Hillary at a 10-point lead, 55-45.

Obviously, that wasnt far from what most of us were expecting, but definitely not something to write home about either.

Oh wait it's 54-46 now; an 8-point lead. Right what I'd expected. With 46% of precincts counted.

But - where are the districts that still need to come in concentrated? Thats kind of a crucial question. Especially with that warning from The Caucus in mind that, in an unusual twist, the big cities would come in first and the small counties later on.

If thats true, then Hillary is likely to expand that 10-point lead further...

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Look at it this way - Philly and the Philly suburbs made up a third of the electorate in 2004. If you add Pittsburgh (Allegheny County), it was 44%. It was those places that helped Kerry get a majority of the vote in Pennsylvania even if the map of the state looked like a sea of red.

Obama needed to romp home in Philly and its suburbs to stay close in this race. For example, even the Suffolk poll that had Hillary up by 10, had Obama up by 30% in Philly itself, and tied with her in the suburbs.

Survey USA (which had Obama 6 points behind Hill state-wide) and PPP (which actually had him ahead) merged these two places in one category, and had Obama leading by 14% and 27% there.

So how's that looking?

About 85% of Philly's precincts have been counted. And Obama leads by 24 points: 62-38.

That doesnt reach the 30-point Suffolk lead, and is also disappointing compared to what that analysis said that Cyclo linked in a coupla pages back: "in Philadelphia, I think Obama will easily clear 60% of the vote, and probably push 65%."

Maybe better have handed out some "street money" after all?

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Philly suburbs not in...hoping for 53-47 at this point...

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nimh wrote:

Oh wait it's 54-46 now; an 8-point lead. Right what I'd expected. With 46% of precincts counted.

But - where are the districts that still need to come in concentrated? Thats kind of a crucial question.

Counties where less than half of the vote has yet come in:

- A bunch of little ones: Adams, Bradford, Crawford, Franklin, Indiana, McKean, Perry, Pike, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Union, Wayne

- Two larger ones that should be good for Clinton (Fayette, Lackawanna)

- A few larger ones that should be good for Obama: Centre (university town) and Chester, Lancaster, Montgomery, and York (which together make up most of Philly's suburbs).

Outcome in Philly's suburbs will be important.

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Almost all the results from Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) are in, and Hillary is leading by 10.

Thats roughly in line with what the polls said (Suffolk said 13, Quinnipiac said 6).

For more context of how it "feels", on the other hand, it's a disappointment for "Booman", the analyst Cyclo linked in who seemed to have a good grip on things. He'd written that "Clinton might win Allegheny County, but I'll be surprised."

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okie wrote:

Clinton by 10 or more in PA, but the real story here is the ineptness of both candidates, each failing to take advantage of the others weaknesses, because of their own weaknesses. It is now not the strength of Clinton that is causing this, but the increasing weakness and questions in regard to Obama. The voters yearn for a clearly good choice, but are forced to choose between the old hack, Clinton, or the greenhorn, Obama, so neither one seems to be able to finish the other one off. The party fell head over heels for Obama, thinking they could finally be rid of the Clintons, but now it is becoming increasingly likely that he is the worst of the two, and probably the weaker candidate in November.

Almost 9 points with 74% counted.

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okie wrote:

About 9 points with 74% counted.

Hmmm..

nimh wrote:

okie wrote:
Clinton by 10 or more in PA

At this moment I'm expecting a Clinton win by 8-9 points..

I win

(Actually, you might still win -- depends on whether Philly's suburbs help him to keep it down to 8-9%, or whether Hill's lead goes up further if their results fail to counterbalance the huge margins she'll be stacking up in all those little rural counties.)

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My overall understanding is that Hillary closed the gap in elected delegates by about 10% (11-13 delegates): she avoided being knocked out of the race, but is only marginally better off than she was before Pennsylvania.

With Indiana and North Carolina now just two weeks away we are likely to see continued hard campaigning by both candidates. In short, very little has changed and the fight goes on ....

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Ouch: blue-collar but relatively upwardly mobile Lehigh Valley (Allentown) was supposed to be something of a battleground county. But Hillary's leading there by 76% to 24%, or 60% to 40%, depending on what site you're on.

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georgeob1 wrote:

In short, very hittle has changed and the fight goes on ....

Good news for John McCain. I am happy about it too.

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georgeob1 wrote:

My overall understanding is that Hillary closed the gap in elected delegates by about 10% (11-13 delegates): she avoided being knocked out of the race, but is only marginally better off than she was before Pennsylvania.

With Indiana and North Carolina now just two weeks away we are likely to see continued hard campaigning by both candidates. In short, very little has changed and the fight goes on ....

What has changed is that Hillary now needs to win 80% of the remaining delegates to pull even. And her chance of winning the popular vote has diminished considerably.

She is now flat broke and I doubt that losing a chance to gain ground will convince potential donors and BTW begging for money during a victory speech is bad form.

Hillary needed a blowout and she didn't get that.

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okie wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
In short, very hittle has changed and the fight goes on ....

Good news for John McCain. I am happy about it too.

LOL 300,000 new Dems in PA and a record turnout is good news??? I would hate to hear the BAD news.

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okie wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
In short, very hittle has changed and the fight goes on ....

Good news for John McCain. I am happy about it too.

LOL 300,000 new Dems in PA and a record turnout is good news??? I would hate to hear the BAD news.

NBC's Chuck Todd, who's the best political analysts out there, says that of the 50 percent of Pa. votes not tallied yet, a large number of these are in Philadelphia and especially the suburbs -- most notably Montgomery County, which is an Obama stronghold. If that's the case, Clinton's margin will surely dip below 8-10 percent, where it's at now.

NY Times:

Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race.

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The current exit poll numbers, which still seem to overrepresent Obama's numbers (they translate to a 53%-47% lead for Hillary), have Obama eking out Hillary among college grads (51% to 49%). But they have him falling short among those without college degree (42% to 58%). Among those with just high school, he falls back to 36%.

If this is how it ends, then his score among non-graduates will be along the lines of where it was in Texas and Ohio, and much lower than in Wisconsin (56%). His score among college grads, on the other hand, would be fairly OK, comparable with Wisconsin and higher than in Texas or Ohio.

Interestingly, the exit polls show little distinction by income. Obama seems to have gotten a majority among the poorest (under $15,000) and the wealthiest (over $150,000), but among all the groups in between it's all roughly comparable, all in the lower 40s.

Odd, that there is such a gap between the voting of those with higher and lower education, but that there is no such gap by income levels. It's been the same in many primaries: the education gap is big, the income big isnt.

How that works out in practice, I dont quite understand: are there lots of high-education, low-income Obama voters, and low-education, high-income Hillary voters, or something?

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NPR shows a 10% lead in the popular vote for Clinton. They show Clinton with 38 pledged delegates won to Obama's 34.

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Roxxxanne wrote:

NBC's Chuck Todd, who's the best political analysts out there, says that of the 50 percent of Pa. votes not tallied yet, a large number of these are in Philadelphia and especially the suburbs -- most notably Montgomery County, which is an Obama stronghold. If that's the case, Clinton's margin will surely dip below 8-10 percent, where it's at now.

Eh. I dont think any of that is right.

According to the NYT, 84% of precincts is now reporting (admittedly, we're 15 minutes on now).

Almost all of Philly's votes have been counted. He ended up there with a 30 point lead, all in all a respectable score after all (so forget about the "street money"). (Though in order to actually win the state, he would have needed a massive 40 or 50 point lead, something like what Rendell won in the governor's race).

But Obama did less well in Philly's suburbs than was expected, frankly. In his "stronghold" Montgomery, he is currently neck-and-neck with Clinton, with about 40% of precincts reporting. In Chester, he's ahead by 8% but with just 1 in 5 precincts is in, and in Berks, which is fully counted, he ended up 16 points behind.

Obama had needed a fair lead in these suburbs to keep Hillary's state-wide lead down to 5 points or less, looks like he didnt succeed in that.

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He's got an impressive lead in Harrisburg, the state capitol though - a fast-growing, traditionally Republican county where Dems have been gaining. Leading by 18 points.

Also in Centre County, home of Penn State and State College but otherwise in the middle of the central, "Alabama" part of the state - he's leading there by 20%.

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I think the real story here is Obama is failing to close the deal. As time passes, his luster becomes duller. That is normal for the celebrity status that he started with, as a virtual unknown. Clinton can now argue that she is much more electable.

Another important story, as this goes on, more and more Democrat voters say they will vote for McCain if their candidate loses.

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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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