Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

For each day that he spends campaigning in a state in the 30 days in the run-up to the election, Obama can expect to gain about 3.5 points in his margin over Clinton. And for every day that Clinton spends campaigning in that state, Obama can expect to lose about 2.4 points.

No Clear Advantage

One of the more surprising twists in a surprising year is that despite the obvious Republican disadvantages in this election cycle, John McCain is matching up pretty well against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in tests being conducted by national polls. Pew Research Center and CBS/New York Times polls show Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton holding only modest leads over Mr. McCain, while other national surveys ?- notably Associated Press/Ipsos and NBC/Wall Street Journal ?- have Mr. McCain running about even against the Democratic candidates.

Electability is an issue, and one that both Senators Obama and Clinton are likely to use to woo the superdelegates. But our polling suggests that neither candidate has a demonstrable advantage to tout. Where and among whom each candidate ran particularly well in the primaries is certainly not much of an indicator of how they will match up against Senator McCain.

Assuming a win in the Pennsylvania primary, the Clinton campaign can be expected to make the case that having won all of the major swing-state primaries, the former first lady is more likely than Barack Obama to carry these states in a general election. But a breakout of the results of recent surveys would argue otherwise.

An analysis of Pew Research Center surveys conducted in late February and March finds the two Democratic candidates running about equally well against Senator McCain among voters in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama led Mr. McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among a representative sample of voters living in these states, while Mrs. Clinton bested Mr. McCain by a statistically comparable 51 percent to 42 percent margin.



Chart: How Clinton and Obama Match Up Against McCainSource: Pew Research Center


However, the same analysis shows that while Barack Obama ran better in smaller swing states and in the red states than Hillary Clinton, the advantage does not necessarily carry over to the general election. He fares no better than she in the match-up polls among voters in states that have gone heavily for Republican presidential candidates in recent years. John McCain holds a significant lead over both Democratic candidates; 51 percent to 43 percent over Senator Clinton and 50 percent to 42 percent over Senator Obama in red states. Similarly, in smaller swing states, Senators Obama and Clinton tie with Senator McCain.

But more reassuring to Democrats is that Pew's analysis of the blue states finds that each of their candidates trounce Senator McCain by a yawning, but equal margin: 20 percentage points.

At this early stage in the campaign, general election match-ups are still hypothetical, but even so there is little indication that either candidate can make any great claims about an electability advantage in particular parts of the country, or nationwide.

The primaries have shown that each has strengths and weaknesses with certain types of voters. Senator Clinton polled better in the primaries among Democrats, especially conservatives, while Senator Obama attracted more support from independents. Demographically, he outdrew her among men, younger voters, the affluent and the better educated. Her constituency has been more female, older and working class.

Race, of course, has been a major factor in the nominating contests, and is likely to loom at least as large in the general election. But it is not really possible to factor race or Senator Obama's counter-balancing appeal to independents or any of these other variables ?- positive or negative ?- to come up with a who's-more-electable quotient for either candidate versus Senator McCain.

When pitted against the presumptive Republican nominee each candidate's strengths and weaknesses, made apparent in the primaries, balance out. The data is simply not there to choose a nominee based on electability.

The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.

AP-Yahoo Poll: Obama overtaking Clinton despite bruises

Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight. The former first lady is clearly suffering more as Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House.

Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in an AP-Yahoo News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet.

But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton ?- widely known since the early 1990s ?- has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped.

The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories.

In a dramatic reversal, the AP-Yahoo News poll found that a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Obama has the better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in November.

In late January, before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus victories, 56 percent of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger nominee, compared with 33 percent for Obama. Now, Obama leads on that question, 56 percent to 43 percent.

Still, the poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some worrisome signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as "not at all honest," for example, jumped from 18 percent last fall to 27 percent in April. It came as he was put on the defensive over incendiary comments by his former pastor. But many holding such views are Republicans or conservative independents who would be unlikely to vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in the fall anyway.

The most encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now give him that role. About one-third of them still prefer Clinton, but they have lost confidence in her electability.

"I would love to vote for Hillary," said Nancy Costello of Bellevue, Ky. [..] But Obama now appears to be the stronger candidate, she said, and electing a Democrat in November is paramount. If McCain wins and continues many of President Bush's economic and foreign policies, Costello said, "I think I would just sit down and cry."

By tracking the same group throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo News poll can gauge how individual views change. It suggests that Clinton has paid a price for hammering Obama since early February on several issues as she tries to overcome his lead in delegates and the popular vote. Among those Democrats who no longer consider her the more electable of the two, most now see her as less likable, decisive, strong, honest, experienced and ethical than they did in January.

Meanwhile, those same voters are more likely to see Obama as strong, honest and refreshing than before.

Beulah Barton of Leesburg, Fla., said she initially backed Clinton, partly because she liked Bill Clinton's record as president.

"But the more I hear her talk, and the more I hear him talk, the more put off I am," said Barton, 69. "I think she's brash, I think she's rude. I get the feeling that she feels she deserves to be president" and doesn't need "to earn it."

Barton said she likes Obama, and ignores e-mails suggesting that he refuses to salute the flag or is somehow threatening "because of his name."

"People try to make him look like a traitor," she said. "I think he has risen above most of that stuff."

Some misinformation sticks, however. The great majority of the poll's participants said this month they did not know the religious affiliation of Clinton (a Methodist) or Obama (United Church of Christ). But 15 percent ventured that Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is a Muslim.

That group includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't necessarily worry them.

Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.

Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."

If Obama wins the nomination, the poll indicates he will need to mend his image a bit as he battles McCain for independents and soft Republicans. His favorability rating among all voters has declined, with those ranking him as "very unfavorable" growing from 17 percent in January to 25 percent in April. Most of them are Republicans and independents.

In January, 30 percent of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably. That grew to 43 percent in April. Among the coveted independents, 12 percent had a very unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has nearly doubled to 23 percent.

Obama would be the first black president, and the survey detected some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president. It produced an estimate of about 13 percent of Republicans who would feel that way, but suggested very few if any Democrats would now be uncomfortable. In November, about 5 percent of Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for president.

For Allen Lovell, a moderate Democrat in Everett, Wash., race is unimportant, but replacing Bush with a Democrat is vital. And lately he has concluded that Obama probably has the better chance of beating McCain.

"I am leaning towards him, not because he's black ?- because I'm white ?- but because we definitely need a change," said Lovell, 50.

He said the Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that Obama is "either Christian or Muslim," said: "I don't think we're getting enough information on religion" from the candidates.

The survey of 1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night's interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia. The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate [..].

In Thursday night's interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night's interviewing since April 3. [..]

The full impact of the debate -- and the ensuing media coverage of it -- will be apparent in the coming days, and it will soon be clear if the debate has produced a shift back to a more competitive race, or if Clinton may have received just a temporary boost in support.

Obama, Clinton Leverage Different Groups vs. McCain

Gallup
April 2, 2008

Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for the general election have shown that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are essentially tied with John McCain among registered voters nationwide.





At this point, then, there would appear not to be a major difference in the overall strength that either Democratic candidate would bring to bear in the general election against McCain.

But an analysis of the vote patterns within segments of the voting population shows that the way in which the two Democratic candidates arrive at that parity with McCain is quite different.

A new Gallup analysis of 19,076 interviews conducted between March 7 and March 29 segments the registered voters into a number of groups, based on partisan identification and ideology.

The basic relationship between these two variables and the general election vote is displayed in the accompanying tables.





In a broad sense, the difference in voting patterns for both Democratic candidates by partisan/ideological group follows a predictable pattern. The two candidates do best among liberal Democrats, and then progressively worse among moderate Democrats, conservative Democrats, "pure" independents (who do not lean toward one party or the other), and moderate/liberal Republicans. They do worst among conservative Republicans.

The analysis can be continued with a more detailed examination of the electorate, separating voters into three groups based on race and ethnicity. Given the dominant percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the sample, the accompanying table displays the vote of non-Hispanic whites broken into partisan and ideological categories, along with the voting patterns of white Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks.







Here, Obama's margin over McCain among non-Hispanic black registered voters is 85 points, while Clinton's margin is 69 points. In other words, while both Democrats dominate McCain among black voters, Obama has a significantly larger margin over McCain than does Clinton. (It appears that black voters are less likely to say they would vote for Clinton against McCain and more likely to say they don't have a preference between the two.)

Clinton does slightly better than Obama against McCain among Hispanics.

There are different, and interesting, patterns in the relative performances of Clinton and Obama against McCain among whites across party and ideological groups.

In general, Clinton does better among all three groups of white Democrats against McCain than does Obama. The difference between Obama and Clinton is largest among conservative white Democrats. In fact, among this group, Obama manages to get only 50% of the vote to McCain's 35%, while Clinton wins by a much larger 68% to 25% margin.

Obama makes up for this, however, with a stronger relative performance among independents and Republicans. While McCain outpolls both Clinton and Obama among "pure independents," Obama is somewhat more competitive with him among this group (trailing by 22 points, compared with 32 points for Clinton). McCain, of course, beats both candidates by significant margins among the two groups of Republicans used in this analysis. But again, Clinton loses by slightly larger margins than does Obama.

Implications

At this point in the election cycle, there are more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents than there are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. McCain has been able to hold his own against the two Democratic candidates in the general election trial heat ballots in the face of this disparity mostly because he does very well among conservative Republicans and wins among independents.

The two Democratic candidates offer different profiles of strengths and weaknesses when pitted against Republican McCain in the general election. Obama's strength is his appeal to black voters, and his somewhat greater appeal than Clinton's to independents and Republicans. On the other hand, although Clinton attracts the support of a lower percentage of blacks than Obama, she has a stronger appeal to white Democrats, particularly white conservative Democrats, only half of whom at this point say they would vote for Obama if he were the nominee pitted against McCain. Clinton has a very slight advantage over Obama in the matchup with McCain among Hispanics.

When the votes of all registered voters are averaged, as noted previously, the two Democratic candidates end up performing about the same against McCain. Clinton appears better able to gain the support of the Democratic base, particularly Democrats more on the fringe of the party (conservatives), while Obama builds his coalition with a stronger appeal to independents, Republicans, and black voters.

Obama enjoys the traditionally high support from black Democrats that all recent Democratic nominees have received. However, Obama would have the challenge of shoring up support among white Democrats if he were the nominee, while Clinton would be faced with the prospect of expanding her support among independents and "soft" Republicans (while at the same time motivating black voters). Looking ahead to the fall election, it is not clear at this point if one of these profiles of support is better from a strategic campaign perspective than the other.

Survey Methods

Results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews with 19,076 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 7-29, 2008. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

But at the same time, when it comes to the Democrats, Clinton does especially well among conservative Dems (of whom just half would vote for Obama!), while Obama holds his own best among liberal Dems. Which puts Obama's appeal to the left of Clinton's.

There's a fascinating paradox in the data about white voters. Clinton does better among Democrats, while Obama does better among Independents and attracts more Republican cross-over voters.

Possible or probable translation, Republicans and independents are less racially biased than Democrats.

Possible or probable translation, Republicans and independents are less racially biased than Democrats. It is only a paradox to those that don't understand what has been going on for decades.

Obama would be the first black president, and the survey detected some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president.

It produced an estimate of about 13 percent of Republicans who would feel that way, but suggested very few if any Democrats would now be uncomfortable.

In November, about 5 percent of Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for president.

Gallup Daily: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. [..]





There has been no change in the general election trial heats, with Obama's margin over Republican John McCain at 45% to 44% among registered voters nationally, and Clinton's margin at 46% to 44%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

[..] In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 45% to 43% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). While that appears to be a tightening of the race, today's results are consistent with the general range of support enjoyed by both candidates in recent weeks. Obama has been within three percentage points of the 48% level every day and Clinton has stayed within three points of the 43% level.





[..] The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain leading both potential Democratic candidates by seven percentage points. McCain leads Barack Obama, 48% to 41% and also leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%.