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Oz election thread #3 - Rudd's Labour

 
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 12:02 am
@dadpad,
First of all, I agree with the Greens that the CPRS was a seriously flawed scheme which wouldn't have achieved nearly enough . However (under Labor) it was the only scheme we were going to have, so I am just as dismayed as the next person that this "critical challenge of our time" was conveniently put on the backburner, for the sake of an uncontroversial election campaign.

Rudd was always fully aware of the problem of gaining a senate majority vote on the scheme with the current senate. How could he not be? It was always going to be tough. What could he have done differently? For starters, far clearer, more easily understood information on the scheme could have lead to greater community understanding on the issue of climate change .. which could have applied far greater pressure on the opposition to take the issue far more seriously, in my opinion. As well, instead of treating the Greens as "the enemy" at every turn & a threat to Labor, he should worked with the Greens, in an effort to gain their support, not side-lining them at every turn. They should have been seen & treated as natural allies on this issue, not the enemy. (The only reason that Steven Fielding ever got a foot-hold in the senate in the first place, with such a poor initial vote, was Labor's allocation of votes to him to him over the Greens, under our preferential system. Incredibly stupid. And now he is a thorn in their side in the Senate, on this and other important reform issues. )

Quote:
Is the failure to get legislation through the senate a failure of a political leader?


It is not as though this senate will be a permanent fixture. If an issue is important enough (& I believe it is the most important issue we face, as do many other people) a political leader does not pragmatically put it in the "too hard basket". A political leader with vision & real commitment on this issue (as he led as all to believe he was) would have fought & argued vigorously for what he believed was the right outcome. This is why every commentator from Crikey!, Shaun Carney in the AGE today, Malcolm Turnball, say nothing of (apparently) members of his own caucus, etc, etc, have been left stunned by this decision. It looks like a big sell-out. What exactly are voters to make of what Labor stands for now?

Rudd's failure, as I see it, is to be too much of the autocrat, a "one man show" (unlike most previous Labor leaders). Too often the ALP ends up with his (very pragmatic) position as policy, arrived at, apparently, with very little consultation with those Labor would normally consult with. If he was some paragon of political wisdom, then his style of leadership might be more forgivable. But he simply isn't. On so many important policy areas. During the early days of this government's term of office, we were led to believe that this softly softly, "don't rock the boat" approach was simply so Labor could establish itself in government. That the "real reforms" we expected from Labor would come in the second term. Well, the second term is looking even more wishy-washy than the first!
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 01:04 am
... & on another matter altogether .. I don't believe for a minute that Labor would even be contemplating internet censorship in this country if Rudd wasn't at the helm.

If I sound bitter about Labor, it's because I once held such a strong commitment to all it stood for.

Think of it as the (not quite there yet) end of a long, passionate, committed relationship. You think you're over it, but you still become absolutely furious when you see yet more evidence of betrayal! Wink

I would dearly love to be a Labor voter again, but I simply can't do it now. And it's rather painful. Sad
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 03:06 am
Video:
Henry Tax Review comment
The Australian Political editor, Dennis Shanahan, weighs up the response to the Henry report:


(A lot more links to Henry Review issues can be found via this link)

http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#1483092933
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 03:14 am
I'm up for a mining tax. Miners would holding their hand out if things were crook
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 03:24 am
@msolga,
I don't know how interested you all are in tax reform, but the online Oz news sites are full of this sort of information tonight.

Quote:
Mining boom to pay for super revolution
By online political correspondent Emma Rodgers
Updated 56 minutes ago/ABC News

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201005/r558987_3364440.jpg
Treasurer Wayne Swan has described the announced changes as historic.

Millions of Australians are set to reap higher retirement savings, funded by a tax on miners, as the Federal Government makes major changes to the country's superannuation system.

The Federal Government today revealed in its much-anticipated response to the Henry tax review that it will lift compulsory superannuation contributions from 9 to 12 per cent by 2020.

The Government's move to increase compulsory superannuation goes against the Henry review recommendations, which instead preferred changing the rate of tax on compulsory contributions to make the system more equitable.

Key points of today's announcement include:

* Lifting compulsory superannuation from 9 to 12 per cent by 2019-20
* More Government payments for low-income workers into their superannuation
* Compulsory super payments for those over 70 and concessions on contributions for those over 50
* A reduction in company tax from 30 to 28 per cent by 2015
* Small business to benefit from company tax cut from 2012
* Other write-off concessions for small business
* Miners to be hit with a 40 per cent tax on above normal profits
* An infrastructure fund to be paid to the states each year to start at $700 million in 2012


Unveiling the Government's response, Treasurer Wayne Swan described the announced changes as historic.

"These are very big steps in a decade-long process of reform," he said.

"We've chosen to build everyone up rather than rearrange the tax concessions."

The country's mining boom will be used to help fund the superannuation overhaul with the resources sector to be slugged with a 40 per cent tax on profits.

Mr Swan warned the Opposition that if they blocked the tax on mining profits they would be blocking the increase in compulsory superannuation.

"This is only doable if it can be funded," he said.


"There are big gains to come from these reforms we have announced today."

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the superannuation increase would deliver more security for people as they age.

"This plan means that working families of the future will have to worry less about their retirement," he said. ...<cont>


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/02/2888088.htm
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 03:51 am
@msolga,
Finally, Fairfax (SMH/the AGE) journalist, Ross Gittins & his assessment of the government's response:

Video: Ross Gittins: Government takes easy option on tax (04:23)
Fairfax Economic Columnist Ross Gittins analysis of the Government's response to the Henry Tax Review:

http://media.smh.com.au/ross-gittins-government-takes-easy-option-on-tax-1401183.html
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 04:36 am
Video: Clarke & Dawe interviewing "Kevin Rudd" on "the greatest moral challenge of our time". (right hand side of the 7:30 Report page)

ETS = emissions trading scheme


http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
0 Replies
 
dadpad
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 06:20 am
Quote:
The Government's move to increase compulsory superannuation goes against the Henry review recommendations, which instead preferred changing the rate of tax on compulsory contributions to make the system more equitable.


Wait....what?

Government Meeting agenda:
1. Have tax review
2. wait a really long time
3. ignore reccomendations.

If the media run with this it will cost Labour the election
ragnel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 May, 2010 07:46 pm
@dadpad,
I am really lost by all this. I cannot see the mining conglomerates sitting back and accepting 40% taxation on above reasonable profits. They will recover this in increased prices all the way down the line to the silly duffers on the receiving end.
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 May, 2010 12:55 am
A worrying result for Labor in the latest Newspoll survey:

Quote:
Climate shifting against Kevin Rudd: Newspoll
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor
From: The Australian
May 04, 2010 12:00AM


KEVIN Rudd's personal standing has taken a hammering after his decision to dump his climate change policy last week, and for the first time since 2006 the Coalition has an election-winning lead.

The Prime Minister's personal satisfaction rating has dropped the most in the shortest time in the 20-year history of Newspoll surveys, and for the first time since the election Labor no longer has a clear lead over either the Coalition or the Greens on the issue of climate change.


Mr Rudd's previous standing as being seen to be "decisive and strong" also fell significantly, and for the first time since the election Labor lost its lead over allcomers as the preferred party to handle climate change.

For the first time in Mr Rudd's prime ministership, an opposition leader is seen clearly as being stronger and more decisive than Mr Rudd, and Tony Abbott is considered almost equal with the Prime Minister in his grasp of major policy issues.

After weeks of dramatic policy reversals and broken promises, culminating last week in Mr Rudd's decision to put off his Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme until at least 2013, the government's primary vote has plunged eight percentage points to just 35 per cent. The Coalition's primary support has risen three points to 43 per cent.

Most of Labor's lost vote appears to have gone to "others and independents" rather than to the Coalition or the Greens.


According to the latest Newspoll, taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian and polling almost 1200 voters, the extraordinary shifts in the primary vote mean the two-party-preferred support for Labor has dropped to 49 per cent while the Coalition's has risen from 46 to 51 per cent. The ALP won the last election with a two-party-preferred vote of 52.7 to 47.3 per cent. A swath of seats would fall in an election with a swing of just 1 per cent either way, and the Coalition needs to win about seven seats to win the election.

The last time the Coalition was in front on the two-party-preferred basis, according to preference flows at the last election, was in August 2006 when Kim Beazley was opposition leader and John Howard was prime minister.

The Rudd government is still failing to enhance its lead on the issue of health and Medicare, despite a month of deals with the states on hospital reforms and campaigning by Mr Rudd.

The Prime Minister's personal satisfaction rating, down 11 points from 50 per cent two weeks ago to 39 per cent last weekend, is the lowest he has had as Labor leader, and it is the first time he has had a negative satisfaction rating, after dissatisfaction with him jumped nine points to 50 per cent.

Labor's primary vote, at 35 per cent, is at its lowest since March 2006 when Labor was in opposition
.

Although Labor's vote dropped heavily after the government announced it would cancel the proposed new home roofing insulation scheme and spend $1 billion fixing up the old failed scheme, drop its CPRS this year and lift the tax on a packet of cigarettes by $2.16, the Coalition's vote did not lift to the same degree.

Primary support for the Coalition rose from 40 to 43 per cent and Greens' support was unchanged on 10 per cent. The category of "others", that is smaller parties and independents, rose from just 7 per cent two weeks ago to 12 per cent last weekend.

Likewise, satisfaction with the way Mr Abbott is doing his job as Opposition Leader dropped a little, from 46 to 45 per cent, and dissatisfaction rose back to where it was a month ago, to 43 per cent.

Because of Mr Rudd's fall in favour, Mr Abbott is now the best placed opposition leader on the question of better prime minister.

Support for Mr Rudd fell to his lowest level of 50 per cent, down six points, and Mr Abbott's rose to his highest level of 32 per cent, up three points.

Additional questions in the Newspoll survey suggest Mr Rudd's decision to dump the CPRS until 2013 at least and Mr Abbott's attack on the Prime Minister as being "gutless" are the prime reasons for the slump in Mr Rudd's personal support and the collapse of the party primary vote.

When Mr Rudd was first elected and faced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader, 84 per cent of voters felt he was "strong and decisive" compared with Dr Nelson's 47 per cent. In September 2008, Malcolm Turnbull, as the new Liberal leader, was on 74 per cent support for being decisive compared with Mr Rudd's 73 per cent. Last weekend, Mr Rudd's support for being decisive dropped 10 points since September 2008 to 63 per cent; Mr Abbott was on 69 per cent.

When asked whether the leaders understood the major issues facing Australia, Mr Rudd's support fell from 76 per cent in September 2008 to 69 per cent last weekend and Mr Abbott's first rating was 66 per cent.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/climate-shifting-against-kevin-rudd-newspoll/story-e6frgczf-1225861785148
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 May, 2010 01:10 am
@msolga,
The ABC on the Newspoll survey results:

Quote:
Coalition punishes Labor to take poll lead
By Sabra Lane, staff
ABC online

Updated 8 hours 26 minutes ago

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201002/r507142_2718236.jpg

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's support as preferred prime minister has risen to 32 per cent, while Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's has dropped to 50 per cent. (ABC/AAP)

The Coalition is in an election-winning poll position for the first time since 2006, with the latest Newspoll showing it leading Labor by 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

The Coalition's support jumped five points while Labor's dropped five. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's support as preferred prime minister rose three points to 32 per cent, the highest support of any Liberal leader since former prime minister John Howard.

In just a fortnight Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's satisfaction rating has slumped 11 points from 50 to 39 per cent, while his preferred prime minister ranking has also been slashed by 6 points to 50 per cent, its lowest level since he took office in 2007.[/b]

The Newspoll survey was conducted last weekend for The Australian and comes after a frenetic fortnight which saw the Government postpone its emissions trading scheme, axe its insulation program, ditch more than 200 new childcare centres, and jack up the tobacco tax.


However it was taken too early to be a reflection of the Government's response to the Henry tax review. The next Newspoll will follow the announcement of the federal budget.[/b]

Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannassey says he has no doubt that the Government has had a very tough fortnight.

He says the result could be a rogue poll, but he thinks voters are sending Mr Rudd a message.


"It's possible that we have a rogue poll, although, funnily enough, while there's a chance of one in 20 that we get one over a certain percentage, the chance that we get one of such magnitude declines as well.

"In October 2009, the last time we talked down climate change or confidence in the Government was fading on climate change, we saw a sharp fall in the primary vote for the Government. Here it is again.

"What you look at is the first preferences, and it is very clear that Labor has taken quite a caning and the Coalition hasn't gained everything it can from that. I think that probably is the story of this poll," he said.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/03/2889312.htm
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 May, 2010 01:32 am
That was the big news item this morning. Late this afternoon it's ...:
Quote:

Reserve Bank lifts rates

ABC news/Updated 17 minutes ago
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200905/r376567_1751222.jpg
The rise will add about $48 a month to mortgage repayments on a $300,000 loan with a 25-year term. (ABC News: Giulio Saggin, file photo)

The Reserve Bank has lifted official interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the sixth time in eight months.

The move takes the official cash rate target to 4.5 per cent and will add about $48 a month to mortgage repayments on a $300,000 loan with a 25-year term.

The Commonwealth Bank is the first of the big banks to announce it is lifting its rates following the RBA decision. The rise takes the bank's standard variable home loan rate to 7.36 per cent.

National Australia Bank later lifted its standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent to 7.24 per cent effective from Friday.

Westpac also lifted its standard variable rate by 0.25 per cent and will sit at 7.51 per cent from Friday.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has repeatedly stated Australia's economic growth is returning to around average levels and interest rates also need to return to about average.

Most economists expect that average level to be around 4.5 to 5 per cent, leaving many analysts forecasting a pause in rate rises after today's move.

Financial markets were not surprised by the move, with 18 out 24 market economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting rates to rise by 0.25 percentage points and only six expecting rates to stay on hold at 4.25 per cent.

However, futures traders were only betting on a 56 per cent chance of rates rising around 9:00am (AEST), according to data from Bloomberg.

Mr Stevens said inflation has not fallen as much as forecast and is likely to be in the upper half of the RBA's 2 to 3 per cent target band.

However, for the first time, he also says interest rates for most borrowers are now back around average levels.

"The board expects that, as a result of today's decision, rates for most borrowers will be around average levels," he noted in his statement.

"This represents a significant adjustment from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago."

However Mr Stevens warned Australia's terms of trade are rising by more than expected and this year will probably regain the peak seen in 2008.

"This will add to incomes and foster a build-up in investment in the resources sector," he said.

"Under these conditions, output growth over the year ahead is likely to exceed that seen last year, even though the effects of earlier expansionary policy measures will be diminishing."

The Reserve Bank has previously said its aim in the short-term was to get rates back to average to match Australia's current level of economic growth.

The Australian dollar fell slightly after the announcement on speculation the Reserve Bank may now pause before its next rate rise. ...<cont>


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/04/2890038.htm
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 May, 2010 01:42 am
@msolga,
Audio material from AM (ABC radio):

Rudd to face fallout from rates rise
Source: AM
Published: Tuesday, May 4, 2010 8:06 AEST
Expires: Monday, August 2, 2010 8:06 AEST

After his drop in the polls, the next issue Kevin Rudd will face today is the likelihood of another interest rate hike. House prices in major cities have soared already this year and another rate rise today will push some home buyers completely out of the market.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2010/05/04/2889449.htm?site=news
ragnel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 May, 2010 06:54 am
@msolga,
Having seen on the news that Westpac's profits for this quarter have gone through the roof after crying poor mouth less than twelve months ago; and having seen an ordinary 'man-on-the-street' Westpac shareholder gloating and saying he owned his house so rising interest rates posed no problem for him; and having yesterday seen another mining shareholder bewail his $100,000 share loss because of Rio Tinto's decision not to go ahead with their next planned venture; I spent much of today trying to read up on it all, going against my normal rule of not letting myself get into this angst-ridden territory.

I started to mark some articles to bring to the table, but then I just gave up on it. Now I am very depressed and spiritually drained. I found nothing to contribute to the thread that would further the cause of humanity in any way. I just see the self-satisfied smirks on the faces of some of these people. Evil or Very Mad

Sorry, msolga. I do read and appreciate all your wonderful efforts but I just do not have the heart to join in. Crying or Very sad

msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 May, 2010 06:57 am
@ragnel,
It's OK, ragnel. No one else responds either! Wink

ragnel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 May, 2010 08:37 pm
@msolga,
Embarrassed
Please forgive all that maudlin self-pity I went on with last night!

By way of explanation, but not excuse, I am pretty much house-bound; have no friends or rellies living within cooee, and so my life is lived through the tv, books from the council's home library service and the internet.

The books are great, but I am dependant upon the librarian's choices, and sometimes they are stinkers (Not into Barbara Cartland or Mills and Boon).

I can't sit through most of the programs on tv. Sitcoms, chick flicks, game and reality shows bore me stupid. Filled to the eyeballs with cooking programs and talent quests. As for sport - well I will only say that the football team I follow were finally given a tv match last weekend. Whoopee dee! My favourite shows are Lost , NCIS, news and any decent docos. The advent of digital tv held so much promise. My brother gave me a HD set-top box last birthday which certainly does expand the tv horizons quite a bit. Sadly, though, sometimes one of the channels goes crazy and the picture breaks up. This might last for ten minutes or all day, and usually affects only one channel, which is, of course, the one I want to watch. The problem is only there perhaps 10% of the time, but has now gone on for much of the time for the past few days. Very annoying and very frustrating. Mad

So, as I said, I spent much of yesterday googling the news. Shocked

All in all a very depressing day. If I were a noble Roman I would probably have opened my veins, or quaffed hemlock, or gone to pet the lions at the circus. Instead of which I tackled the Aussie political situation. The lions would have been kinder. Rolling Eyes

Don't mind me, it's not really depression, just a fit of the blues, and I'll bounce back pretty quickly. Redheads do. Wink
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Wed 5 May, 2010 08:54 pm
@ragnel,
Hi, Ragnel. I am Realjohnboy from the U.S. I am a political junkie, racing around the world following elections. I am following AUS and the reporting coming from there, but am focused right now on the UK. Mr Brown appears to be doomed.
I have a thread going on the mid-term elections in November in the U.S. which a couple of people read.
Please join us with your comments.
I will try to catch up on the race in AUS next week, msolga. I do read every post, I assure you.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 May, 2010 08:58 pm
@ragnel,
Absolutely no need to apologize at all, ragnel! Smile

In a mad rush right now but I will respond later on. (got to get to my hairdresser's so's she can trim my wild & woolly fringe. Or soon I won't be able to see at all! Razz )

Gotta run now.
Catch you later,

Olga

0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 May, 2010 06:38 am
@ragnel,
Quote:
So, as I said, I spent much of yesterday googling the news. Shocked

All in all a very depressing day. If I were a noble Roman I would probably have opened my veins, or quaffed hemlock, or gone to pet the lions at the circus. Instead of which I tackled the Aussie political situation. The lions would have been kinder. Rolling Eyes

Don't mind me, it's not really depression, just a fit of the blues, and I'll bounce back pretty quickly. Redheads do. Wink


Ah, ragnel, you poor thing, tackling the Oz political situation is no way to cheer yourself up! Silly sausage! Smile

(The only reason I do it is because I have masochistic tendencies! Wink )

No, seriously, I'm really sorry you're down in the dumps right now. (Having experienced similar myself recently, I can commiserate wholeheartedly.) I do hope things improve for you. And soon. I'm glad to hear you're a quick bouncer-backer! Smile

So, did you find anything even remotely interesting in your Googling?

msolga
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 May, 2010 06:39 am
@realjohnboy,
Glad to hear someone is reading, RJB!
You're a star! Smile
0 Replies
 
 

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