Oz election thread #3 - Rudd's Labour

Crikey says Morgan Poll hasn't given the Libs a ratings rise:

Morgan poll shows no bounce for Turnbull led Libs

Friday, 3 October 2008

Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:

Last week we reported a special Morgan Poll, smaller than usual, that showed the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull had failed to dent the ALP’s lead. The first full-scale Morgan poll since Turnbull’s ascension has confirmed he has failed to generate any lift for the Coalition. The poll shows an ALP lead of 10 points on the primary vote and a 2PP lead of 57.5-42.5, up 2.

In short, we’re back to the business as usual. Turnbull might rue his luck that the global financial crisis has coincided with his elevation, since the crisis has been serious enough to enable Rudd and Swan to adopt a wartime-like air of seriousness and reassurance and required the Coalition to fall in behind the Government. Both Prime Minister and Treasurer, despite the argument over whether banks should pass on the full interest rate cut, have looked on top of their brief. That’s the benefit of incumbency.

The only problem for Labor is the ongoing performance of state governments. Most of these incompetents seem to taint anything they touch. At best, they bring with them an air of small-minded foolishness, but it’s more often the stench of venality and mindless vindictiveness that wafts in when a premier enters the room. They performed badly enough when they were rolling in money during the boom years, so our looming economic difficulties promise to send them plumbing new depths of idiocy.

Yesterday’s bringing forward of the Government’s infrastructure investment plans, however sensible from the point of view of offsetting an economic downturn, looks worryingly like a cave-in to these useless types. The bringing-forward of Infrastructure Australia’s audit of major projects looks particularly strange. If it was going to be completed in the shorter timeframe, why wasn’t it brought forward earlier? Or will the new authority -- which has only been up and running a matter of weeks -- hand in a half-baked report that fails to submit the claims of State Governments to a proper analysis?.....


Full story here

http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20081003-Morgan-poll-shows-no-bounce-for-Turnbull-led-Libs.html

Market resumes plunge:

The Australian share market took less than 15 minutes of trading today to wipe out all gains sparked by the Reserve Bank's surprise one percentage-point cut in its key interest rate.

Further sharp falls on Wall Street overnight and gathering gloom about the state of European banks battered investor confidence less than a day after the RBA's shock move had lured buyers back into the market. ...<cont>

http://business.theage.com.au/business/market-resumes-plunge-20081008-4w1x.html

Market plunges 5pc, dollar crashes
Posted 1 hour 27 minutes ago
Updated 1 hour 14 minutes ago
ABC News online

The Australian share market plunged 5 per cent today, as the dollar hit a new five-year low.

Fear of a global recession has seized markets, with big falls across the major indices overnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 5 per cent and today the local All Ordinaries index fell by the same margin. It was down 228.1 points at 4369.8.

After hitting a fresh three-year low, the ASX 200 closed 231 points lower at 4,388.

CommSec's Savanth Sebastian says there are growing concerns about the ability of emerging economies to withstand the financial crisis.

The fact that we saw the Indonesian market fall over 10 per cent and actually close trading for the day really had a significant impact on the rest of Asia," he said.

The miners have been hard hit, with Fortescue Metals Group down more than 14-per-cent.

The local currency, meanwhile, has dived more than three US cents in less than an hour to a five-year low.

About 4:45pm AEDT it was buying 67.65 US cents.


Asian markets suffer

Stocks around Asia have also suffered sharp falls.

Japanese share prices plunged 9.38 per cent, the biggest loss since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash, as panic-selling erupted over the global financial crisis.

Markets in Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea were all down by about 5 per cent.

In Indonesia, a 10 per cent fall in share prices prompted officials to suspend market trading.

The main index in South-East Asia's largest economy nose-dived in response to sharp falls on Wall Street overnight before trading was suspended for an "indefinite period".

Indonesia's stock market was never suspended during 1997's Asian financial crisis.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/08/2385692.htm

Me:





Humming....I don't hear you!!!

Not looking to see how many more thousand my super lost today....hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmms




Hey...if our economy is weathering this better than most, how come our dollar is losing value vs the US dollar?

Let's face it - we're all still gonna be working when we're 87! Might as well get used to the idea.

But I'd hoped to be able to start working half-time by eighty!

We're seen as a resource economy. With the expected global slowdown, there's an expectation that resources won't be in as much demand. I think it's a foolish reactionary take on the situation. Most of the resource boom is on account of the growth in China. Now China's growth may slow a bit, but being driven as it is by 1.3 billion people, it's almost a force of nature. It's not going to slow too much.

Oddly too, the dropping dollar makes our exports and tourism more attractive. Of course petrol will now go through the roof.

Goodbye, Mr Kent
Paul Daley
Sunday AGE
October 19, 2008


Illustration: Matt Davidson

IT'S amazing what a rush of Franklin D. Roosevelt can do to a prime minister's brain. One minute our PM Kevin Rudd is a super-cautious, process-obsessed, review-driven control freak. Then, after a few back-of-the-envelope sums with the man formerly known as The Least Confident Treasurer The World Has Ever Seen, he's blowing $10.4 billion of a budget surplus obsessively acquired over 12 years by The Least Relevant Former Treasurer The World Has Ever Seen.

Roosevelt, the inspirational Depression-era American president, liked to keep a lid on public expectations while at the same time taking drastic measures - overhauling the domestic economy, introducing the New Deal for the unemployed, enforcing price controls and reforming the banking system. He redefined American liberalism through radical government intervention.

Last week, Rudd had no qualms about channelling part of the Roosevelt strategy of invoking extreme economic measures while simultaneously talking down public expectations - even going so far as to borrow the president's famous quote that "we cannot ballyhoo ourselves back to prosperity".

While such artful appropriation of ballyhoo at a time of crisis has just given Kim "boondoggle" Beazley yet another reason to detest Rudd, our Prime Minister has also just gone from zero to hero when it comes to the politics of grand narrative.

One minute Rudd's critics and allies alike are pasting him for boring us senseless by failing to spin a so-called political narrative. The next thing you know he's banging on so assuredly about the threat of "extreme" capitalism, the implied venality of bank execs and the evils of avarice that you've got to wonder if the Booker Prize judges accidentally overlooked this particular morality tale by this particular loner who also happens to hold an Australian (though not an Indian) passport. ...<cont>

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/goodbye-mr-kent-20081018-53mq.html?page=-1

Hello, hello ....!

Anyone still here?


Any of you watching The Howard Years, on Monday nights on the ABC?

(Strange - the Howard government seems so long ago, almost like ancient history! )

Anyway, just wondering: Who - on the basis of the episodes you've seen - wins the prize for the most gruesome Liberal politician so far? (I know who I'd nominate. Some of those interview excerpts have made my hair stand on end! Ugggh! )

Hi Olgs

Very work busy lately. Haven't been watching the Howard years (I have a one lines synopsis 'we're bunch of self-serving assholes') and have little interest but I'd like to know your take on who's the slimiest.

I'm still enormously confused how our dollar can drop 30c against the USD but petrol drop by about the same percentage. The latest Guardian had a few stories about how the drop in price is affecting some oil-producing countries - Iran looks a mess, Venezuela may turn on Chavez. Of course a drop in price means our own govt's revenue drops significantly (excise being a percentage). Will the world go foom?

I'm moving up to the boons and taking a gun with me CJHSA style.

Seriously though - still waiting for visible cracks to appear.

I am enjoying the brittleness in Julie Bishop, still loving Julia, and waiting to see what COAG has done to change education funding. Particularly in the area of indigenous education and of course, the Bradley report on Unis.

PS - loved the 'babies' cartoon - I will never excuse that anus for Tampa.

I keep missing it.

I know I ought to see it.

I guess I'll catch it on DVD.

IS it worth watching?

It does seem kind of long ago, doesn't it?

Great to see a wee bit of activity on this thread again! Though I don't blame any of you in the least for not being overly excited by Oz politics right now ... I don't blame me, either!
I'm finding the political scene very, very boring. Kevin (& his endless "revoltions" that aren't) bores me senseless & as for the opposition! One storm in a teacup after the other.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't complain. Boredom's better with this lot than fear & loathing with the previous lot .... I think?

I'll get back here soon on The Howard Years & other stuff ... Just a bit pooped, drained & uninspired at the moment, as a result of extreme busy-ness, of the stressful kind. (The VCAT hearing was yesterday, Deb. Thank the goddess that's over! It went pretty well.)

Phew!!!!!!


I am VERY glad to hear that!