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Freaky global weather sets off alarm bells

 
 
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 01:24 am
Extreme weather prompts unprecedented global warming alert

In an astonishing announcement on global warming and extreme weather, the World Meteorological Organisation signalled last night that the world's weather is going haywire.

In a startling report, the WMO, which normally produces detailed scientific reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record extremes in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from Switzerland's hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the United States - and linked them to climate change.

Complete article from 'The Independent': Reaping the whirlwind




Following, the press release from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO):
Quote:

For use of the information media - WMO-No 695
Not an official record



ACCORDING TO THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION,

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS MIGHT INCREASE


Geneva, 2 July 2003 - Record extremes in weather and climate events continue to occur around the world. Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states in a press release issued today.

In June, record high temperatures were recorded across southern France, with maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C in parts of southwest France. This resulted in June average temperatures of 5 to 7°C above the long-term average. In Switzerland, the month of June was the hottest in at least the past 250 years, according to environmental historians. In Geneva, since 29 May, maximum daytime temperatures did not drop below 25°C, making June the hottest June on record for the city.

In the United States, there were 562 tornados during May, which resulted in 41 deaths. This established a record for the number of tornados in any month. The previous monthly record was 399 tornados in June 1992. In the eastern and southeastern part of the US, wet and cold conditions prevailed for well over a month. Weekly negative temperature anomalies of -2°C to
-6°C were experienced in May while precipitation excesses, ranging from 50 mm to 350 mm over a period of more than 12 weeks starting in March 2003, have been recorded.

In India, this year's pre-monsoon heat wave brought peak temperatures of between 45°C and 49°C which correspond to weekly temperature departures from the normal of +2 to +5°C. At least 1400 people died in India due to the hot weather. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfalls from Tropical Cyclone 01B exacerbated already wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of southwestern Sri Lanka was heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30% is expected for the output of low-grown tea in the next three months.

These record extreme events (high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall amounts and droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages which, for temperatures, have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years. New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing. According to recent climate change scientific assessment reports of the joint WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface
temperature has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6°C. This value is about 0.15°C larger than that estimated by the previous reports. New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest in any century during the past 1000 years. It is also likely that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year. While the trend towards warmer globally averaged surface temperatures has been uneven over the course of the last century, the trend for the period since 1976 is roughly three times that for the past 100 years as a whole. Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the second highest since records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures only, last May was the warmest on record.

The influence of El Niño and La Niña on these extreme events is in general undefined. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its Members, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services along with various research institutes, will continue to organize research and document the influence of El Niño and other large scale climate phenomena on climate extreme events.
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bobsmyth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 01:41 am
Thanks for the report Walter. These are indeed remarkable departures from the norm. I was aware of the tornado occurrences but the rest is really an eye opener. I am grateful for the info.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 01:56 am
From the above quoted 'Independent'-article:
Quote:
The unprecedented warning takes its force and significance from the fact that it is not coming from Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, but from an impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given to hyperbole (though environmentalists will seize on it to claim that the direst warnings of climate change are being borne out).
[...]
The unstable world of climate change has long been a prediction. Now, the WMO says, it is a reality.


Here a report from Italy:
Quote:
TERRA.WIRE

Record temperatures could mean Italy going tropical: weather office

ROME (AFP) Jul 02, 2003
Italy is becoming increasingly hot with average June temperatures at their highest in more than half-a-century, suggesting the country's climate may be going tropical, the national meteorological bureau said Wednesday.
Rome broke its 1782 historic record on June 10, reaching 34.8 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit), with an average 32.2 degrees Celsius (90 Fahrenheit) compared to 29 degrees Celsius (84 Fahrenheit) last year.

Neither has the usually temperate north been spared, with the city of Turin reaching a June historic average high of 27 degrees Celsius (81 Fahrenheit), not experienced there in June since 1753.

"The month of June has been a secondary phenomenon in terms of climate development, but all these little variations are nevertheless significant," said Colonel Massimo Capaldo of the met bureau, which is run by the air force.

Italy's average mean temperature in the last decade had risen by a half a degree Celsius compared to the preceding 30 years, he said.

The rainfall pattern had likewise changed: "There are fewer rainy days but they are more intense," the official explained.

It would not be exaggerated to speak of a "tropicalisation" of Italy's climate, Capaldo suggested.

"It's a term we have been using since the beginning of the 1990s," said Giampiero Maracchi, head of Florence's Institute of Bioclimatology.

"That doesn't mean we can grow bananas or pineapples in Florence," he told AFP: "But if things go on this way, we might yet be able to."
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 01:56 am
And here one from Switzerland
Quote:
Swiss swelter in early summer heat
The month of June has been the hottest June in Switzerland for at least 250 years, according to environmental historians.

The blast of African heat is worrying climate experts, threatening the Alpine ecosystem and making some farmers break out into a cold sweat.

Unheard of temperatures have been recorded in Switzerland over the past month. While heat waves in June have been a recurrent event in recent years, they have never lasted as long as this one.

In Geneva, maximum daytime temperatures have not dropped below 25 degrees since May 29. Most of Switzerland has experienced hot weather for up to 19 days.

Temperatures have been generally six to seven degrees above average for this time of the year.

"It's the hottest June since 1753, when people started taking measurements," said Christian Pfister, a professor of environmental history at Bern University.

Climate change
June's heat wave may be remembered as being exceptional, but it may just be part of a wider trend.

The effects of global warming, which only a few scientists still dispute, seem to be making themselves felt.

Last December, the World Meteorological Organization said that the ten hottest years recorded after 1860 were all since 1987.

Stéphane Bader, a climatologist at MeteoSwiss, confirmed that average temperatures have risen since the 1980s, in summer and winter.

The geosciences department at Fribourg University has already begun considering climate change for the next 100 years.

Using computer simulations, a team of researchers headed by Martin Beniston has come to the conclusion that Switzerland will have a stable, hot and dry tropical climate in 2100.

Global warming has already had an effect in the Alps. Glaciers are shrinking, permanent snow cover is becoming thinner, and steep slopes are more and more unstable.

Pfister reckons that mountainous regions could face droughts during the hottest summers.

Too little rain
A lack of rainfall has been one of the main features of the latest heat wave. "Since the beginning of spring, there hasn't been enough rain," Bader told swissinfo.

Switzerland has recorded only one fifth of its usual precipitation since the start of the year.

The combination of heat and a lack of rain has had consequences for Switzerland's farmers.

"There's nothing to be worried about yet, but our situation is becoming more precarious by the day," said Josef Wüst, spokesman for the Swiss Farmers' Union.

Some vegetables, such as beans, do not grow well in the heat. But farmers will not face a crisis so long as water levels allow them to irrigate.

"Swiss farmers are well equipped with water pumps and irrigation material since the 1976 drought," Wüst told swissinfo.

Consumers can also expect fewer and smaller potatoes this year. "When the temperature gets above 20 degrees, potatoes stop growing," said Bernard Messerli of the AGIR agricultural information service.

Early harvests
Grain production on the other hand shouldn't suffer too much from the heat. The plants grow well in these conditions, and harvesting should be earlier than usual, if not quite as abundant.

The weather has been a boon to winegrowers. Vines appreciate hot, sunny conditions, and this year's harvest will probably be a few weeks early.

But too much of a good thing can make for unhappy farmers. Tomato and cherry producers have so much produce on their hands that they don't know what to do with it.

The tourism industry isn't about to complain about the heat. Restaurant owners and the national tourist board, Switzerland Tourism, are pleased with the soaring temperatures.

Thanks to the heat, many Swiss are taking holidays at home, which is good for business.

swissinfo, Marc-André Miserez (translation: Scott Capper)

Copyright © Swissinfo / Neue Zürcher Zeitung AG
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 06:20 pm
And freakiest of all, perhaps, one from Pat Robertson and the Christian Broadcasting Network

PROPHECY
Bible Scholar: Road Map a Path to America's Destruction

http://www.700club.com/cbnnews/cwn/070303weather%2Easp

By Stan Jeter
For CWNews

July 3, 2003


What does bad weather in the U.S. have to do with peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians? A lot-say some Bible scholars.



CBN.com - What does bad weather in the U.S. have to do with peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians? A lot-say some Bible scholars. The problem, they say, is that America has been pressuring Israel to 'surrender land for peace'. Land the Jews say God promised them 4,000 years ago. It seems with every major U.S. action to pressure Israel to give up its God-given land, another natural disaster strikes the U.S. Is this coincidence or Divine judgement?

In late April and early May of 2003 the U.S. was pushing to get the Middle East process on track.

On April 30 Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. Consul General said, "What we need to do now is implement, and focus on, how we get the two sides back to a political process and towards the vision of a two-state solution-Israel and Palestine living side by side." That means a Palestinian state carved out of the ancient biblical lands of Judea and Samaria.

The plan called the 'roadmap for peace' was set in motion as U.S.-backed Palestinian Mahmoud Abbas was sworn in as Prime Minister.

The very next day the worst month for tornadoes in American history began-over 500 in a single month. Normally, it takes all year for a thousand tornadoes to hit the United States.

But this year of 2003, in just eight days in May, 375 twisters ripped across the heartland of America.

Later in the month of May, while in Israel, Assistant Secretary of State-William Burns-told a group of left-wing activists that "common sense" will override the conservative and Christian viewpoints concerning the 'roadmap'.

And on May 9th, 2003, President Bush addressed students at the University of South Carolina. Bush called on the Palestinians to embrace the 'roadmap to peace' and they would see the flag of Palestine raised over their new free nation.

Just hours later, tornadoes returned to Oklahoma City and it again became the bullseye for deadly twisters. This time they reduced what was left of businesses and homes to splinters and bricks.

The tornadoes of May, 2003 devastated the Midwest-with the third-worst property damage in American history.

Also in Spring 2003 heavy rains fell on the East Coast, the worst in 60 years, making it possibly the most rain-drenched spring in history. On the East Coast there have been fewer than ten rainless weekends the entire year. While, in the West, amid dry conditions, certain crop-eating pests are worse than at anytime in six decades.

Since then, the 'roadmap' has endured a rocky road; many have spoken out against it; and extremist Islamic groups, such as Hamas, have sabotaged it.

In the early stages of the 'roadmap' peace process, weather catastrophes and recent violence in Israel have competed for the headlines. That violence, coupled with America's own battles at home are leading some to question the 'roadmap'.

Some Bible scholars believe there is a connection between dividing the Land of Israel, the Holy Land, and these major disruption.

In the book of Joel, God warns against dividing the land of Israel. Joel 3:1-2 says: "...I will enter into judgment with them there on behalf of My people and My inheritance, Israel, whom they have scattered among the nations; and they have divided up My land."

Bill Koenig, author of the book Israel: The Blessing Or The Curse said, "We know for a fact that God gave this land-through the Abrahamic Covenant-to the Jews. He gave the land of Israel to Abraham, Isaac and Jacob and their descendants and this land is God's Land."

Koenig said the U.S. should not consider chaotic weather a 'coincidence'. He said, "These are warning signals, these are warning judgements to America (from God) that this is 'My covenant land' and it's not to be traded for promises of peace and security. This land is not to be parceled."

Over the last 12 years, ever since U.S. leaders stepped up efforts to pressure Israel to divide up Israel, America has suffered devastating storms.

Back in 1991, on October 30th, in a meeting scheduled by President George H.W. Bush, Israelis and Palestinians discussed ways to achieve peace in the Middle East. Opening talks focused on trading the land of Israel for a peace agreement.

That same day, thousands of miles away, a powerful storm began to brew off the coast of Nova Scotia. On October 31st it smashed into New England and pummeled Kennebunkport, Maine and President Bush's home there, with 30-foot-high waves. It would later be called 'the perfect storm'-a storm so rare that the weather patterns to make it only happen once in a hundred years.

And in August 2002, Middle East peace talks resumed in Washington, D.C., the issue being surrendering the biblical lands of Judea and Samaria in exchange for peace.

Hundreds of miles south, Florida is hit with the worst natural disaster in American history. Hurricane Andrew rips and tears through with an 'eye' over 30-miles wide and winds as high as 178-miles an hour, leaving a $32 billion disaster behind it.

Koenig said, "The worlds leaders have attempted to parcel the covenant land, so-when Israel's property and land is at risk, so is the property and land of the nation that's promoting that [kind of] peace process."

He went on to say, "And, I might add that, the greater the pressure on Israel to give up this property, it's land, the greater the repercussions on those pressuring and the greater the following events that take place afterward."

In the Bible, the prophet Zechariah warned the nations that would come against Jerusalem. "On that day, when all the nations of the earth are gathered against
her, I will make Jerusalem an immovable rock for all the nations. All who try to move it will injure themselves." (Zechariah 12:3)

Koenig went on, "We have the nations of the world, right now, siding with the Arabs and the Muslims who are focused on the covenant land; but we know God is standing with the nation of Israel."

As the roadmap peace process encounters resistance, the Bush administration's determination to see it through has escalated.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "We have a plan…now we have to execute that plan, and keep moving forward, and not allow ourselves to be distracted...."

But, Koenig says, "America is standing up against prophecies-against the very Word of God-and should expect major obstacles. He said, "I believe The Lord will continue to allow these events to happen that disrupt the peace process."

Koenig added, "As long as a terrorist infrastructure is allowed to co-exist in the nation of Israel, we're going to have a problem."

And with those same terrorist groups opposed to America's brand of peace, the future of the 'roadmap' is dim.

Israelis maintain that they will be relentless to protect their country, while all plans to split up the tiny nation may be hindered.

Koenig added, "God loves the nation of Israel. He still, to this day, loves this nation. He is in hot pursuit of the people of Israel. Through these events, we look at the tragedies and we look at the trials, but God is trying to wake up the world."

Not everyone agrees with these conclusions, of course, but the Old Testament Prophet Zechariah said: "On that day, when all the nations of the earth are gathered against her, I will make Jerusalem an immovable rock for all the nations. All who try to move it will injure themselves."
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jul, 2003 07:15 pm
Is this the beginning of the end? We have many philosophical forums on A2K and elsewhere about what is reality, and what is the purpose of life? Scientists tell us that the sun will last more than a billion years, but that says nothing about the life of earth and its inhabitants. My question is is this a 'normal' cycle, or is this the first time earth is being bombarded by higher temperature? c.i.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jul, 2003 12:09 am
Thanks Walter!

I'd be interested in the original research literature that triggered this press release, but I didn't find any references on the WMO website. Probably my fault, but I'm curious: did you find something in this regard?

My current opinion is that the 0.6 °C warming during the last 150 years is old news. So is the mere existence of extreme weather conditions. As the report says itself, "New record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe". What's new in this press release is the assertion that extreme weather conditions have become more frequent. Until now, this was a prediction by the IPCC, but not an actual measurement. And research articles that claimed weather extremes have indeed increased in frequency had a hard time distinguishing whether the measured increase is a consequence of more extreme weather or of more intense measuring. Meteorologists have a lot more stations now than they had 100 years ago. I'd be interested to learn whether this difficulty has been overcome in the research the WMO press release is based on.

I'm not very confident though, because most of foundation the press release consists is giving for its thesis is a listing of this year's extreme weather conditions, and a reference to IPCC predictions (as opposed to measurements).

-- Thomas
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 Jul, 2003 03:03 pm
GLOBAL WEATHER
i find this a pretty interesting subject, but for a non-scientist it is difficult to understand the various scientific pronouncements and assumptions which seem to go all over the place. (it seems to me it is somewhat like the hormon-replacement therapies for women, that for the last 30 years or so were almost considered a cure-all for all of the diseases that might effect particularly elderly women; now the medical/scientific researchers seem to agree that it makes many of these diseases worse, e.g. instead of decreasing the risk of alzheimer's disease it INCREASES it - and we personally think we have noticed it in one of our friends who relied on HRT for 30 years or so; of course this is only an observation of a single case. but the question remains : what can the lay-person/non-scientist believe?). recently there was some mention in a magazine that a(dutch?) researcher has determined that global warming trends are greatly influenced by the earth passing through fields of asteroids and cosmic dust of a certain kind - i don't have the details on this. has anyone read this? the article also stated that another researcher(at a university in israel ?)had independently arrived at the same conclusions. ........................... recently i was rereading on of my books that had been sitting on the shelf for some years. it is called EART'S LAST FRONTIERS(a history of discoverey and exploration, published 1973 by aldus books, london) in one of the articles it states in part : ...in 1261, the greenlanders voted to become a crown colony of norway.but by this time their prosperity was beginning to decline. the mild climate that had made farming possible in greenland and iceland was changing. as temperatures dropped, ice began to cover more of the land .... so some climate change must have taken place and make it impossible to continue farming.... it seems that major climatic changes are nothing new to the earth and us temporary inhabitants. ...(i'd like to close my comments on this serious subject with an anecdote. a former canadian prime-minister -lester b. pearson- asked some economists for some advice. apparently they went to see him and said: "on the one hand the results could be XXX, but on the other hand hand they could be ZZZ ". pearson is quoted as having said: "i guess what we need are some one-handed economists" .. and i hope i have not offended any economist too gravely. anyhow, i think it's an interesting AND important subject and i'll be checking for other comments. hbg
0 Replies
 
neil
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 10:26 am
Rolling Eyes an impeccably respected UN organisation that is not given to hyperbole ~could that possibly be the UN that is riddled with people who think that it is desirable to tell lies for a good cause? I will concede that a tiny amount of global warming has occured likely less than occured in the LCO = little climate optimum about 800? years ago. Storms decreased then, and recent extreme weather may be more wider distribution of information than reality. I am skeptical of both sides of this debate. Where I live in Jacksonville, Florida; May and June were warmer than usual, but July and August have been cooler than usual so they average to no change. Neil ~
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 10:38 am
Well, here in Europe autumn starts 6 - 8 weeks earlier than usually, due to the hot summer.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 11:23 am
Wonder if it has anything to do with mars infrequent visit in our neighborhood? c.i.
0 Replies
 
Noddy24
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Aug, 2003 12:12 pm
Is Mars responsible for recent spectacular weather?

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves. Men at some times are masters of their fate.
0 Replies
 
Sam1951
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Apr, 2004 12:59 pm
The Time of Change
Has anyone looked into aboriginal teachings or phrophecies? I have spent time with the Elders of several Native Nations, they all say the same thing, " This is the time of change." What change? Oh, globlal social upheaval, extreme weather and and interactive geology lessons - up close and personal.

Change is not necessarily all bad. While there will be destruction and death, one Elder told me that only 144,00 humans will survive. This is also the time for mending the Hoop. The time for all people to abandon their disagreements and wars and come together as one family.

We must also learn to live with The Grandmother (the earth). The environmental abuse and destruction must not only stop but we need to clean up the messes that we have made. There are so many better ways of harnessing energy than the ones we are using now. If each individual had to generate their own electricity and provide their own transportation would there be as much waste as there is now?

There two ancient calderas showing signs of activity. One is in Yellowstone National Park and has affected Lake Yellowstone, changing the water levels and raising the water temperature to 84 degrees F. This is causing the fish in the lake to die. The other is in the SW US. Both look like building lava domes. Historically both of these areas have produced calderas so huge that they were not recognized as such until recently.

Can we do anything to prevent disaster? Who knows. A Shoshone man is organizing a Ceremony in the Tetons to be held on May 8, this year. He is trying to heal The Grandmother and restore the Balance of Nature in the area. He invites everyone to join in praying with him for this end.

The educated, scientific part of me says, "I am about to experience the sociology, metorology and geology that I have studied." My Lakota part says, "We have hurt The Grandmother and she is not happy with us." I hope both parts are wrong. Either way the next twelve years look like interesting times.

Sam
0 Replies
 
husker
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Apr, 2004 01:18 pm
Drought Monitor 12/2002


Right now
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Apr, 2004 01:40 pm
My first question is, how many years have we kept records of the weather cycles on this planet? It would seem to me that the redwood trees in California has a pretty good climatic history for the past several thousand years. A good place to start, I think.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 19 Apr, 2004 05:31 pm
c.i. : i'm sure i have on more than one nature program seen scientists explain cycles of draught and wet weather etc. by referring to annual rings of the california redwood trees. recently i also watched an interesting science program from the BBC; here scientists were trying to figure out the weather cycles in europe during the 12th to 15 th century by analysing the various deposits found in irish peat bogs. seems like a neat way of reading our earth's history. hbg
0 Replies
 
NickFun
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Jun, 2004 04:58 pm
I guess we're all screwed.
0 Replies
 
Noddy24
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Oct, 2004 06:24 pm
Suppose the residents of Florida were polled about "uncharacteristic weather" in the summer of 2004?
0 Replies
 
Thok
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Nov, 2004 12:04 am
Noddy24 wrote:
Suppose the residents of Florida were polled about "uncharacteristic weather" in the summer of 2004?


That's for sure. More hurricanes that in a normal season.
0 Replies
 
 

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