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FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 03:32 am
I may not have seen the results of the poll to which you refer, Francis. What were the figures in pro and con? Is the growth of indicated support occurring more or less as you suggested earlier?
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 05:55 am
from the economist

"The constitution contains several victories for Britain, so often France's arch-rival in Europe. Among other things, it maintains each country's veto on big foreign-policy decisions and on tax harmonisation."

Most ironic that if the French reject it because it contains too many victories for Britain, it will save Tony Blair's government the embarrassment of holding a referendum here, where it would surely be lost.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 06:45 am
georgeob1 wrote:
I may not have seen the results of the poll to which you refer, Francis. What were the figures in pro and con? Is the growth of indicated support occurring more or less as you suggested earlier?


I'm not sure to what recent polls Francis is referring.

But the regional paper Ouest-France published one today, mainly referring to Britanny:
51% pro - mainly due to a swing within the right wing and conservative voters of the governing parties.

(In 1992, Britanny approved the Maastricht Treaty with 59,9%.)



The Figaro (and TF1) lead a poll (by Ipsos), which results in 52% "no" versus 48% in favour of the constituion. (The worst was 62% vs. 38% one month ago, last week still 55% vs. 45%!)

The "Oui" is coming in France!
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Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 06:51 am
Walter wrote:
The "Oui" is coming in France!

I certainly hope you're wrong.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 06:55 am
Thomas wrote:
Walter wrote:
The "Oui" is coming in France!

I certainly hope you're wrong.


http://www.mainzelahr.de/smile/boese/box2.gif
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 06:59 am
I hope the French vote in favour. Not only because it means they accept the British view of things, but because it will force the British government (which will of course be headed by Gordon Brown) to get behind a yes campaign here.
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Francis
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 07:22 am
I've no source in English, meanwhile take a look here :

Le Monde
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 07:44 am
Thanks -- 52% no and 48% yes with a 3% gain in the yes vote since earlier polls. That is consistent with Francis' prediction.

My impression is that Blair will win in the UK election. Assuming a French Oui on the Constitution and a third term for PM Blair, that will mean a decisive vote on the Constitution in the UK with Blair as PM. When will that occur? Any other national referenda before then?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 08:45 am
Francis wrote:
I've no source in English



Obviously "Miss France Could Be Stripped Of Title" is more interesting for the English writing media :wink:


But here's an article:

Quote:
EU constitution 'no' vote at 52 pct in France - poll
PARIS (AFX) - Some 52 pct of French voters will reject the European constitution in a referendum on May 29, according to a new opinion poll released yesterday that raised hopes for those in favor of the landmark text.
The Ipsos poll conducted for Le Figaro newspaper and Europe 1 radio showed a three-point drop in opposition compared with the last survey, marking the second time in a week that the 'no' camp seemed to be on the wane.
But a poll carried out by the BVA institute last week put opposition at 58 pct -- the highest score yet.
More than 20 polls taken since mid-March have shown that French voters will reject the constitution on May 29. Not a single survey has suggested that the 'yes' camp would win.
Some 27 pct of those opposed to the constitution said they believed the text would be renegotiated if France were to reject it, despite the fact that French President Jacques Chirac has said renegotiation was not an option.
COPYRIGHT
Copyright AFX News Limited 2005. All rights reserved.
Source
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 27 Apr, 2005 08:51 am
Some 27 percent of those opposed to the constitution said they believed the text would be renegotiated if France were to reject it, despite the fact that French President Jacques Chirac has said renegotiation was not an option. - well, when those will get it ... :wink:
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nimh
 
  1  
Mon 2 May, 2005 01:13 pm
Quote:
'Oui' vote stages revival in constitution battle

The Independent
02 May 2005

Precisely a month before the only poll that counts, opinion surveys are tracking an abrupt revival of support for the proposed European Union constitution in France.

For the first time in six weeks, an opinion poll suggests the "oui" camp - composed of the government and main opposition parties and most mainstream media - has regained the lead in the run-up to the referendum on 29 May.

Another poll places the "non" argument still narrowly ahead - by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - but losing ground rapidly.

Perhaps most significantly, both polls suggest there is a sharp increase in support for the proposed EU treaty from the centre-left and among members and sympathisers of the principal opposition party, the Parti Socialiste.

Support for the constitution has always been solid among supporters of President Jacques Chirac and the two centre-right parties. Until this weekend, there had been a rapid erosion of support among Socialist voters, angry with the centre-right government of Jean-Pierre Raffarin and tempted by hard-left arguments that the treaty is an "ultra-liberal" (ie hard capitalist) plot.

A significant moment in the campaign may have been the pugnacious TV appearance on Thursday of the former Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, who icily - and wittily - dismissed the "no" arguments of the left.

It was perfectly reasonable, M. Jospin said, to want to change the government but that should not be confused with support for an EU treaty, needed to make a 25-nation union function properly. When you want to end a marriage, M. Jospin, said, you divorce your spouse, not the priest who married you. (...)

However, both the opinion polls published at the weekend were based on interviews conducted in the days before M. Jospin's appearance. There has been, in any case, a revival of the spirits of the pro-treaty left in the past fortnight.

An effective poster, widely distributed and available for download on the internet, shows sinister-looking pictures of five "non" supporters on the far right and far left and proclaims "Quand je vois ça je vote 'oui'" ("When I see this lot I vote 'yes'"). (...)

More generally, the "no" camp appears to have run out of steam.

Opponents of the treaty seem to be paying the penalty for grossly inflating their case, claiming the proposed treaty would place at risk everything from abortion to wine-producers co-ops.


Here's a copy of that poster:

http://blog.hexali.fr/images/avril/non_22_04_05.jpg

Can someone help me out here? The second to the left is far-right Front National leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. The middle one I suppose is the Communists' leader, forgot-his-first-name Hue. Who's the other three? And why isn't Trotskyite frontwoman Arlette Laguiller on there?
:wink:
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Mon 2 May, 2005 01:23 pm
30 April Dutch opinion poll on the Constitution referendum, of Muarice de Hond's agency, compared to the week before:

Yes 38% (+1)
No 40% (-1)


Interesting is also the poll's identification of four electoral groups: EU adepts, EU supporters, EU-with-a-brake, and EU sceptics. Unsurprisingly, the determination to go vote is highest among both adepts and sceptics, with those in the middle less likely to turn out.

When cross-correlating the four categories with voters of the different parties, supporters of the (liberal) Democrats and the Christian-Democrats turn out to be the most supportive of the EU, while Labour and Green Left voters are mostly in the in-between categories and Socialist and (far-right) Group Wilders supporters are most explictly EU-sceptic.

It's the right-wing VVD that poses a confounding pattern, with its voters overrepresented both among EU adepts and EU sceptics, but underrepresented in the in-between categories. Its voters are apparently internally polarised, what with the VVD having pounded on nationalist-type issues of immigration, asylum and independence vis-a-vis Brussels over the last decade but the party also traditionally representing the (very pro-EU) business community.
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Francis
 
  1  
Mon 2 May, 2005 01:27 pm
nimh wrote:

http://blog.hexali.fr/images/avril/non_22_04_05.jpg

Can someone help me out here? The second to the left is far-right Front National leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. The middle one I suppose is the Communists' leader, forgot-his-first-name Hue. Who's the other three? And why isn't Trotskyite frontwoman Arlette Laguiller on there?
:wink:


Left to right :

Jean-Pierre Chévènement, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Robert Hue, Philippe de Villiers, Henri Emmanuelli.

Why Arlette Laguiller isn't there : maybe the choice of publisher, question of space?
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ConstitutionalGirl
 
  1  
Mon 2 May, 2005 09:46 pm
If I could, I would Vote for Philippe de Villiers, much better looking than the rest.
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Francis
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 12:33 am
Disastrous choice, IMO!
<as well as the others>
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 12:45 am
ConstitutionalGirl wrote:
If I could, I would Vote for Philippe de Villiers, much better looking than the rest.


Not everyone knows, how your other site looks like*, Francis - than, of course, you would have been CG's one but only choice! :wink:

*until I'll post those pics
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Francis
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 12:51 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Not everyone knows, how your other site looks like*, Francis - than, of course, you would have been CG's one but only choice! :wink:

*until I'll post those pics


I'll curse you, if you do so... Laughing
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 12:58 am
Aah - la magie noire/blanche :wink:
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ConstitutionalGirl
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 03:14 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
ConstitutionalGirl wrote:
If I could, I would Vote for Philippe de Villiers, much better looking than the rest.


Not everyone knows, how your other site looks like*, Francis - than, of course, you would have been CG's one but only choice! :wink:

*until I'll post those pics
We, we, we, Misue
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Tue 3 May, 2005 05:24 am
Francis wrote:
Left to right :

Jean-Pierre Chévènement, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Robert Hue, Philippe de Villiers, Henri Emmanuelli.

I dont think I know Henri Emmanuelli, what's he from?
0 Replies
 
 

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