Meanwhile, in "old Europe", how are the politicians doing who evoked Bush's wrath by standing up to him on Iraq?
Chirac is doing fair enough. His defiance of the Americans swept him up to record-high popularity levels in March-April: up to 60, 67 or even 70% favoribility ratings, depending on which pollster you take. Now he's back to more regular levels, but still not doing bad at all.
TNS Sofres has him at 50% this August, up 3% from July and up 1% from June. Ifop had him at 56% in July, same as in June. BVA had him at 57% in July, down 3% from June. Ipsos had him at 57% in July, down 4% from June.
In all polls except the TNS Sofres one, the unfavourable ratings are 16-23 points lower, with only 34-40% judging him negatively. Moreover, both Ipsos and BVA show clearly higher favourability ratings for his allies in the Union for the Presidential Majority and the UDF than for the opposition Socialists. Only the small Green party is looked upon more favourably. In short, the French Right need not worry.
Schroeder is not doing so hot, on the other hand. His party, the SPD, has been faring very badly, indeed, in the polls, for about a year now. His coalition partner, the Greens of Foreign Minster Joschka, "My generation learned you must make a case [for war], and excuse me, I am not convinced" Fischer, however, are doing ever better. And though even their sum totals in the polls look dire, there's just the slightest recovery.
The "political mood" in the latest ZDF-Politbarometer shows the SPD and the Greens at respectively 28% and 12%. Two months ago, this was 24% and 10%. The Politbarometer projection of what those polled would really vote, if there would be elections next Sunday, shows the SPD at 31% and the Greens at 10%, up very slightly from 30% and 9% two months ago.
The opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are doing a lot better, on the other hand, with 45% in that projection (against 47% two months ago), and their allies the Free Democrats polling an additional 6%. The Christian Democrats have a leadership problem, however. Edmund Stoiber, who narrowly lost the last elections to Schroeder, is still no more the popular: he scores +0,3 against Schroeder's +0,2. His successor, Angela Merkel, hardly does any better: +0,4. Just to put this in perspective, Joschka Fischer is at +2,1.
Furthermore, only 26% of those polled thought the CDU/CSU would do a better job in government than Schroeder is doing. A whopping 62% thinks there would be no difference.
In
Belgium meanwhile, new elections back in May went well for the "purple" government of Socialists, free-market Liberals and Greens that had so conspicuously challenged the Bush administration on Iraq. That is to say, the Greens lost 9% and were kicked out, but the Socialists won 8% and the Liberals 2%, and they could easily continue governing together without the Greens, leaving the Christian Democrats and far-right Flemish Block in opposition (scroll down in
this thread).
Links:
Ifop - Politique,
BVA,
TNS Sofres - Politique,
Ipsos - Politique,
ZDF.