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FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 12:50 pm
I don't believe the US economy is or can be self-sustaining. Perhaps we are a bit less dependent on external factors than some others, but we do have our points of dependency as Walter has noted. Our last experiment with economic isolationism after WWI was good for no one, inside or outside the USA.

Oil is a problem - 40% of the world's petroleum transfers pass through the Straits of Hormuz out of the Persian Gulf every day. Increasingly this supply goes to consumers in Asia, Japan and, notably China. All importing nations have an interest in the stability of governments in the Gulf Region. It will be interesting to observe the future actions of Japan and China with respect to their growing dependency on this region.

The chief problems facing the world today arise from the lack of political and economic development in the Moslem World and in Africa. It is truly unfortunate that Europe and the United States, following the successful conclusion of the Cold War cannot find a mutually acceptable way to deal with these problems. The principal European powers have evidently decided that unchallenged U.S. power is a greater problem and have organized their strategies around that principle. This seems to me to be most unwise and unfortunate - a triumph of envy and pride over common sense.

For the US the trick is to reduce our vulnerability to external shocks, whether economic or political, and find a way to force Europe to bear a share of the cost while we deal with these central issues.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 01:01 pm
georgeob, I don't think any of us even suggested that the US is or should be self-sustaining. The world economy will only become more interrelated rather than separate in the future. The supply and consumption of oil will be our main energy source for many decades to come, and it's up to the developed countries to invest in R&D to find alternate energy sources. Nobody can argue with your third paragraph concerning the lack of political and economic development in the Moslem and African countries. I doubt very much that the Europeans will exert much energy or resource towards the cost of helping those countries as they struggle to develop their own union.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 01:21 pm
Cicerone, I agree with you. The U.S. sorely needs to deploy an energy strategy to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Democrats believe the route to this outcome is through government limits on vehicle design (ban SUV's and the like) and through tax breaks for solar & wind power and other like fantasies. The right answer is more nuclear power for electrical generation; new facilities for importing LNG (there is ample supply of gas); and new technologies for exploitation of our enormous reserves of high quality coal. One can extract a number of combustible gases from coal including hydrogen, methane and more complex molecules - all of which could be used in clean engines or fuel cells.. The problem is finding environmentally safe & efficient methods of handling the residues. This is a difficult technological challenge, but one more likely to yield a solution than others being advocated by environmentalists.

Meanwhile we still do have the means to make the Europeans bear some of the economic costs of dealing with the key issues before us all, and we should pursue them vigorously. Right now a weak dollar is the right remedy.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 01:27 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
The U.S. sorely needs to deploy an energy strategy to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.



From press release:
"A bipartisan group of top energy experts from industry, government, labor, academia, and environmental and consumer groups today released a consensus strategy, more than two years in the making, to address major long-term U.S. energy challenges. The report...contains detailed policy recommendations for addressing oil security, climate change, natural gas supply, the future of nuclear energy, and other long-term challenges, and is backed by more than 30 original research studies."

Full report: Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Address America's Energy Challenges (PDF; 2.29 MB)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 01:47 pm
Walter, Good link. Thanks for sharing. It pretty much explains what needs to be done, but it'll rely a great deal on how our government follows it's recommendations. I doubt very much Bush is even interested.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 03:19 pm
Walter,
How do you always find this stuff so fast?

Intersting report - I just read the introduction; bios of the panel members; and their final recommendations. The rest is 148 pages.

Most interesting to me was the fact that their recommendations are almost identical to those of the Energy Strategy developed three years ago by Vice president Cheny and his panel of advisors. Apparently the democrats are willing to accept the truth as long as it doesn't come from the mouths of their political opponents.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 03:34 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Walter,
How do you always find this stuff so fast?


Just look at my signature line Laughing
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Fri 10 Dec, 2004 04:00 pm
C'mon, now Walter - admit it - show 'em your toolbar :wink:
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 02:26 pm
Quote:
Turkey's Radical Fringe Returns to View

Sunday December 12, 2004

By BRIAN MURPHY

AP Religion Writer

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) - It's the sort of scene that rattles Turkey's Western-looking establishment: angry demonstrators raising fists for Islam and waving posters supporting Chechen separatists, the Iraq insurgency and hard-line Palestinian factions such as Hamas.

``Islamic resistance will win!'' chanted nearly 400 protesters, including women wearing green headbands with Quranic verses - similar to those worn by suicide bombers in farewell videos.

Radical cries from the fringe - like these in Istanbul last weekend - are driving concerns that the Muslim nation's push toward Europe may stir momentum in the opposite direction. Ahead of a key European Union vote Friday, pro-Islamic political groups appear ready to seek gains if Ankara's bid to join the EU falters and more extremist elements could use the East-West split as fresh ground for recruits in a country still stunned by bombings last year linked to al-Qaida.

``Turkey is like a firewall between radical Islam and the West,'' said Dogu Ergil, a political science professor at Ankara University. ``The consequences if the firewall comes down are scary.''

It's already been shaken. Turkish authorities are still trying to assess the alleged role of al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden in attacks last November in Istanbul's European side. Some 60 people, including the British consul-general, were killed in bombings at two synagogues, the British Consulate and the headquarters of London-based HSBC bank.

Turkey's top military officer says terrorism is Turkey's top domestic threat. In response, authorities have clamped down on underground funding networks for Chechen rebels and are watching a growing trend of political Islam in Turkey for signs of drifting into radical orbits.

If the EU rejects Turkey, pro-Islamic political groups could find a springboard to reassert more power and seek stronger bonds with the wider Muslim world, including neighboring Iran. Authorities also could confront new challenges to contain extremists in Turkey, where secularism has been a pillar of the nation since it formed in 1923 from the remains of the Ottoman Empire.

``An EU rejection of a Muslim Turkey is also going to reinforce the notion that the West is, indeed, now engaged in a war against Muslims worldwide,'' said John Robertson, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs at Central Michigan University.

Almost no one predicts an easy EU pass for Turkey; a key vote is scheduled for Friday at an EU summit on whether to open formal talks on Ankara's membership bid. The process - even if given a clear green light - could last for a decade or more.

Meanwhile, Turkish society appears to be undergoing twin trends: more attuned to conservative Islam and closer police attention to militant ideology.

Istanbul's Carsamba neighborhood is a case in point. Nearly the entire place pushes the panic buttons of the nation's secular circles.

Men openly wear skullcaps and religious-style robes - technically illegal for everyone but clerics inside mosques. Bookstores offer volumes about perceived ``Zionist'' conspiracies against Islam and extolling the Palestinian intefadeh. Street peddlers hawk CDs about Muslim commandos in Chechnya waging ``holy war'' against Russia and sermons from firebrand Turkish imams silenced by the state.

Nearly every woman has a head scarf and many wear a full chador that hides all but their eyes. A five-minute cab ride brings the Turkey that EU proponents want the world to see: miniskirts, designer stores and wine bars.

``Islam is reclaiming its rightful place in Turkey,'' said Kenan Alpay, an organizer at Ozgur Der, or Freedom Association, a conservative Islamist group. ``We have been on the sidelines of politics and society too long. That's ending.''

The group is one of many in Turkey raising funds for Iraqi and Chechen civilians, but Alpay denied sending money or personnel to any militant factions.

``We are for our Islamic brothers and sisters,'' he said. ``We don't send anyone to fight. But people go on their own because of injustices. It's hard for Muslims to stand by and see the suffering in Iraq and other places.''

This is what Turkish officials fear most: Turks who come home radicalized after joining Islamic fighters in places such as Chechnya, Afghanistan or Iraq. Estimates on the number of Turks active with Islamic militants abroad run from several hundred to much lower.

Some of the key suspects in the November 2003 bombings were veteran guerrillas from these battlegrounds and a few met with bin Laden, Turkish prosecutors maintain.

Last month, the military chief of staff, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, told the Turkish War Academy that neighboring countries are no longer seen as the top security threat and ``terrorism (is) the first priority.'' The comments suggest Turkey could shift more of its defense budget to surveillance and intelligence-gathering units.

``The real militant groups in Turkey are still marginal,'' said Metin Heper, who studies Islam and politics at Bilkent University in Ankara. ``The question is how to make sure they remain there.''

The answer for many is to remain on a European orientation.

Many Turks already see themselves as a step apart from the rest of the region. They cite Turkey's NATO membership, cooperation with Israel and unyielding official secularism. Turkey's toehold in Europe is a ticket to rub elbows with the continent on many important, cultural levels - from sports championships to the splashy Eurovision song contest.

There's also the belief that tolerance is an inherited trait from the multicultural Ottoman realm.

Ali Bardakoglu, head of Turkey's powerful religious affairs directorate, wonders if this tradition could be under threat if the EU keeps Turkey out of the fold.

``Inside and outside Turkey, radical Islamic movements will try to make the case that (the Muslim and Christian worlds) are incompatible,'' said Bardakoglu, who has used his office's control of the nation's 70,000 mosques to denounce terrorism and support EU-mandated reforms such as greater women's rights.

``Rational attitudes will suffer.''
Source
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 02:28 pm
Quote:
Summary: Turkey Reaches for EU Membership
Sunday December 12, 2004


BIG TURKEY: Turkey has about 70 million people - nearly all Muslim - which would make it among the most populous members of the current European Union. But its birthrate outpaces most current EU members and could surpass heavyweight Germany by the time Turkey joins.

CHECHEN CONNECTION: Investigators are concentrating on links between radical Islamic groups and Turkish fighters drawn to the separatist fight against Russia. Probes are complicated by the many aid groups in Turkey supporting Chechens.

POLITICAL FALLOUT: Many analysts believe the EU bid is the glue holding together the current Turkish government. Problems that stall the EU bid could break the governing party apart along ideological lines and open the way for pro-Islamist groups.
Source
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:34 pm
This is the 'heavy' dough of the cake that is not visible to most observers of what is happening in Turkey's bid to join the EU. With the way France is treating Muslims in their country, it'll be an interesting dynamic to watch how Turkey's population will react to France after membership.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:39 pm
Eh, Turkey is still on the way trying to become a member - it won't happen before in a couple of years.

And why are you pointing especially at France? France is (more) pro-Turkey than e.g. the German conservatives (besides others), who are strictly against it.
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australia
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:50 pm
That will be the beginning of the end, if turkey gets into the EU.
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Einherjar
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:51 pm
The end of what?
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australia
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:53 pm
Europe, the EU.
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Einherjar
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:55 pm
Turkey will join the EU and then dissolve the union? I'm sorry, that just doesn't make sense.
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australia
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:57 pm
I didn't say dissolve the union. I just think they will bring more a lot more problems than benefits.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 03:57 pm
Restricting membership is one thing, but restricting religious' habit is another - especially when directed only at Muslims - or what is perceived to be directed only at Muslims.
0 Replies
 
australia
 
  1  
Sun 12 Dec, 2004 04:51 pm
Not just because of religious beliefs. Economic, political and geographical. Their economy is second or third world, they have potential for extremist government and they are not even really part of europe. Istanbul is, but the rest of it isn't.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Mon 13 Dec, 2004 02:06 am
Quote:
Turkey offers to heal the wounds between West and the Islamic world - for a price

By Stephen Castle in Istanbul
13 December 2004


Turkish membership of the EU can bridge the gap between the West and the Islamic world and avert a clash of civilisations, says Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who warned of the danger of rebuffing his country.

Ahead of an EU summit this week, Mr Erdogan said there were "some reasons" to believe a conflict is looming but added: "Turkey is a catalyst to make sure we have harmony of civilisations. It is a bridge between the Islamic world and the rest of the world."

Describing Turkey as a "guarantee of an entente between the civilisations", Mr Erdogan said the country's integration into the EU is "the project of the century".

Asked what would happen if Turkey's bid for membership talks collapsed, he replied: "If Turkey is not taken in then everyone will have to continue with the status quo. This is a danger we have right now."

EU heads of government meet in Brussels on Thursday to set a date for negotiations designed to lead to the accession of the first predominantly Muslim country to the EU.

Speaking to The Independent, Mr Erdogan spelled out his bottom line for this week's summit to set the terms imposed on Turkish membership talks, and hit out at the Cypriot government, accusing it of trying to move the goalposts and add new conditions.

Though his rhetoric was tough, Mr Erdogan hinted at flexibility over one diplomatic impasse concerning Cyprus, and accepted that Turkey could not be guaranteed membership if talks are launched.

Negotiations with Turkey are expected to take at least a decade. In Germany, France and Austria, opposition to Turkish membership is strong, stirred by a vigorous debate over immigration. But supporters of Turkish accession argue that it is vital to launch membership talks, both as a symbol to the Islamic world and as a means of sustaining reforms in Turkey.

Opponents of Turkey's EU membership mobilised in Istanbul yesterday, at the urging of the far-right Nationalist Action Party. Thousands of Turkish nationalists waved red-and-white Turkish flags and chanted slogans at the rally in Istanbul, shouting: "Our flag will not come down and our nation will not be divided."

Mr Erdogan ruled out any reference in the summit deal to an alternative to full EU membership for Turkey - such as the "privileged partnership" suggested by Austria - and said he could not grant formal recognition to Cyprus.

On Cyprus, he added: "We are just expressing our outrage at the extraordinary conditions that are being used to try to pressure us. The game has started. The rules of the game should not be changed while the game is going on. When you have a soccer game, do you change the rules while the game is going on?" However he did not exclude a more limited demand in the current draft text which would mean extending a customs union to all 10 countries that joined the EU this year - including Cyprus. And he accepted that the start of negotiations cannot guarantee Turkey a place in the EU.

Those signs of flexibility suggest that the current diplomatic stand-off will be bridged by the time the EU leaders leave Brussels on Friday.

Mr Erdogan said he was expecting talks on the basis of an application for "unconditional full membership", and required an "exact date of the start of negotiations" without having to meet a second time. He also insisted there should be no new conditions imposed on Turkey because it has fulfilled its part of the bargain by making sufficient progress over EU human rights standards, called the "Copenhagen criteria".

Mr Erdogan said "no political criteria that are not included in the Copenhagen political criteria should be pressed upon Turkey. These are permanent limitations [on areas such as the free movement of workers], [recognition of] Cyprus, other things. There can be some temporary limitations [on workers] but having permanent limitations is against [EU law]."

The Turkish Prime Minister added: "It is not possible for us to accept any pressure on any issue that is not included in the Copenhagen political criteria."
Source
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