FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

Nimh,
As you must know Thomas is a serious free market libertarian, and, except for some of his choices in U.S. political and journalistic figures, a clear-thinking, consistent (not quite dogmatic) observer of the political and economic scene.

I believe your dispute with him over the matter of emigration is one of degree, not of kind or mechanism. For small or moderate levels of unemployment and emigration, I believe the effects are just as Thomas described them. Emigrants are a relatively uniform sample of the population; the supply of labor is reduced; and the wages of those that remain are increased. I suspect that in cases where there is large, long-term unemployment and mass emigration, other, social and motivational factors come in to play -- the dynamic changes and becomes non-linear. In such a case there truly is a preponderance of the youngest and most capable workers in the departing population, particularly as the emerging generation loses hope for the realization of their ambitions. In these situations the decline can feed on itself just as you described. In short, you are both correct, but you may have very different situations in mind.

Ireland was, to a great degree, an example of the second situation. In 1990 the EU subsidies had been operating for some time. The labor market was quite free and the tax code provided special incentives for work, investment, and the creation of intellectual property. However, despite all this there still wasn't much upward momentum in either the growth of the IT services sector or employment generally. Emigration still was an important option for the young. Since then the economy has grown rapidly and the two-century-old pattern of the young leaving for Britain, America or Australia is now almost forgotten.

This kind of outcome doesn't always happen after long-term mass emigration, and even when it does a good deal of time, with all factors contributing positively, is often required to bring about an economic rebirth. If the period of emigration and economic stagnation wasn't very intense and didn't last too long the readjustment can happen quickly.

I find the different patterns of recovery among the former Soviet Bloc states particularly interesting. A generation of authoritarian socialism can leave lasting bad effects. I still can't estimate how thr EU will deal with this new, rather challenging situation.

The EU is like a pack of sled dogs. If you ain't the lead dog, the view ahead is pretty dreadful.

Well, that's an opinion.

And perhaps the reason, why so many countries are leaving it.

It seems to me, increasingly, that the alleged European Union is nothing more than a glorified customs union. This explains both why other nations in Europe are eager to get in, and why the European Parliament is such a joke (great money for the host city, though, once Strasbourg, although i don't know, or care, where those overpaid exploiters of pure sinecure now haunt the public trough).

I rather suspect this will lurch and stumble along for many years without any meaningful resolution.

Well my work is paid for by the EU and its got nothing to do with a customs union ... ;-)

Then you must be part of the glory, Habibi . . .

Poor Nimh! This may be a relatively new thread but the story of the internicine (sp?) squabbling among so-called European fallen lights has been well chronicled. Take a Google trip on Germany,Socio-Economic Trends and read 'em and weep. It is a miserable disaster. Denial to the Bone. Delusional aspirations of return to Former Glory, denial of a dying native population, overrun with hate-filled Arab immigrants, red-handed complicity in the Iraq "Oil-for Food" SCANDAL...and much more. The Glorious E U ? A total JOKE!

Well, Chuckster, one might discuss, if this thread is really - running over a year by now.

Both nimh and I, however, have lived in the EU some time longer, so we really don't need google to get educated in this.

Since I live in Germany: could you please name me one, just one singel place, which is
a) overrun by b) hatefilled Arabs?

Actually, could you name me one place in Germany with a significant Arab population?

I like Setanta, and I also enjoy a bit of Europe-bashing, but I don't like Setanta's post above. Accurate in some respects, but otherwise below his usual standard - even on a cranky day.

The EU is certainly a very successful customs union, but it is also a good deal more than that. If it has established a new basis on which the national rivalries that once wasted so much European blood and treasure, can be submerged, that alone fully justifies the cost and effort invested in it so far.

It will be interesting to see how far the contemporary concept of ?'shared sovereignty' will take the EU (and the part of the outside world that must deal with it). This is new, unexplored territory for such political systems, and it will be very interesting to see how it evolves, The American experiment with a relatively loose confederation was a failure. We went on to a unitary Federal government, but even then a bloody civil war ensued, fought essentially over the relative power of the member states and the Federal government. Since then there has been a slow steady erosion of the power of the states, while the power of the Federal government has grown. We too have probably not seen the last major disruption in the evolution of our own political structure.

Steve often paints a picture of an EU that has reached new heights in the political evolution of mankind, and which will yield a vigorous new superstate that will lead the world in political and economic power and "moral authority". I don't buy that version either.

Instead I see a so far successful confederation that is boldly attempting to incorporate a group of Central European nations emerging from the Soviet Socialist darkness with very different states of economic and political development. This is a major challenge, and I hope the EU will deal successfully with it. I do believe the operating component of the EU is excessively bureaucratic, and the contest between its legislative arm and the governments of the member states is still at a very early stage of evolution - there will be difficult ground ahead.

Setanta's cynical description of the EU's faults is accurate in many respects, but such observations, to varying degrees, could accurately be made of most governments, including that in the United States. I believe that Europe will eventually have to decide between a real unitary government and a less ambitious confederation, one with fewer pretenses of independent sovereignty. (Perhaps that is Setanta's view as well.). However, the game is not yet over and we will all have to wait to see what evolves. So far the EU has exceeded what I expected could be achieved.

It is precisely my point that it will be little more than a glorified customs union (with, apparently, a substantive part of the glory accruing to our friend Habibi) until the sovereignty issues are resolved. I would submit that most of the potential for internecine conflict has long been abated, with the exception of the Balkan region, in which it seems, from an historical perspective, that bloodletting is the favorite regional outdoor sport.

George - is that really you?

I do hope, you'll feel better soon!


Seriously, I fully agree here (sic: HERE) with you.
And I really could have said it better in one sentence:

:wink:

Walter, Chucky Cheese doesn't seem to care much for specificity--Arab, Turk . . . they're all islamo-facists to him . . .

It's really me, Walter, and I feel quite well. Glad to see that you agree with me HERE (if nowhere else !)

These are my long-held beliefs on the subject. Perhaps it is the very nature of the dialogue here (and everywhere) that tends to emphasize areas of disagreement at the expense of those in which there is agreement. I believe that all of us also react more to expressions of disagreement than to those of agreement. Given these two phenomena it is no surprise that we all see our disputes better than our common ground.

I'm sure that it is only this that keeps you from supporting our Republicans and George Bush!

(I can't get the emoticons to work, otherwise I would have used a few of the friendly ones here.)

You really don't think, a visit to the doctor's would give some relief
(I've quite some difficulties with the Democrats and Kerry, but since in your "two party system" no-one else has any change ...



Go to "preview", and then just click on the emoticons on the left site there.

(But when you really used them frequently, I would have even more serious concerns about your health!)


You are right, humans tend to work out more the disagreements than the agreements.

First you tell me how to use the smiling emoticons, then you tell me that if I ever use them you will think I am unwell and not myself!

Give me some slack. I'm really a nicer guy than....... Let me think. ......... Setanta !!!!

So are more than five billion people on this planet . . . you ain't said jack . . .

Set,

I was afraid you'd see that ! I was looking for some comparison that Walter would accept - somehow you came to mind.

Actually you are a very interesting and good guy. You do have your intemperate moments though.

Unlike yourself, eh? You old charm school dropout . . .

LOL You're right.

I guess it takes one ....

It's really Celtic charm.