FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION

French Socialists face split over soul of party

By John Lichfield in Paris
Published: 25 August 2005

The main French opposition, the Socialists, are threatened with the most serious rift in their 30-year history as they gather for a conference - or "summer school" - this weekend.

Left-wing and nationalist Eurosceptic factions within the party will try to humiliate and destabilise the centrist party leadership and prepare the ground for a hard-left, anti-European coup at a crucial party conference in November.

The pleasant term "summer school" fails to convey the depth of personal hatred and political division likely to be revealed within the ranks of the Parti Socialiste (PS) when they assemble in La Rochelle for three days from tomorrow.

Since the Socialists quarrelled over the referendum on the European Union constitution in May, a vicious four or five-way battle has raged for the soul of the party and - implicitly - the main centre-left nomination for the presidential elections of 2007. There is even serious talk of the Parti Socialiste splitting permanently into at least two parties.

A number of hard-left factions hope to turn the PS into an anti-globalist, anti-capitalist and anti-European party, in alliance with the Communists and Trotskyists. If so, two of the party's elder statesmen suggested this week, centre-left reformers should be ready to form a social democratic party of the centre.

The former prime minister Michel Rocard said that the endless quarrel between the so-called "realist" and "real" Left within the PS must be settled once and for all. It would be better to split the party than to talk in endless circles, without addressing the true problems of France.

He was supported yesterday by the former health minister Bernard Kouchner, one of the most popular political figures in France.

"I approve Michel Rocard's idea that we should confront the pseudo-Marxists and their shabby utopias," said M. Kouchner, the founder of Médecins sans Frontières. "Should we risk a schism in the PS? Yes. We have gone past the time for surface reconciliations."

Officially, the party's uncharismatic, competent, centrist general secretary, François Hollande, holds the allegiance of a majority of Socialist deputies and almost two-thirds of the 102 regional federations. At the grassroots, however, party members are increasingly tempted by the anti-market, anti-EU rhetoric of a group of mutually distrustful and ambitious leaders.

The hard or "real" left within the party is divided between at least three "currents", or factions, led by the former prime minister Laurent Fabius, the former party treasurer Henri Emmanuelli and, an unctuous, rabble-rousing young lawyer, Arnaud Montebourg. At least two of these factions are divided within themselves. These divisions within the hard left - and a grassroots instinct to preserve a façade of unity - may save M. Hollande's job at the conference in Le Mans in November.

But M. Montebourg this week accused M. Hollande of leading the party to "two disasters": the split over the EU referendum and the failure of the Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, to reach the second round of the last presidential election in 2002."We cannot build anything with Hollande," M. Montebourg said.

To which the party spo-kesman, Julian Dray, said: "It is a pity some of my Socialist friends have not used their well-earned holidays to increase their wisdom. It seems some of them would have done better to shut up." Anyone for summer school?

The main French opposition, the Socialists, are threatened with the most serious rift in their 30-year history as they gather for a conference - or "summer school" - this weekend.

Left-wing and nationalist Eurosceptic factions within the party will try to humiliate and destabilise the centrist party leadership and prepare the ground for a hard-left, anti-European coup at a crucial party conference in November.

The pleasant term "summer school" fails to convey the depth of personal hatred and political division likely to be revealed within the ranks of the Parti Socialiste (PS) when they assemble in La Rochelle for three days from tomorrow.

Since the Socialists quarrelled over the referendum on the European Union constitution in May, a vicious four or five-way battle has raged for the soul of the party and - implicitly - the main centre-left nomination for the presidential elections of 2007. There is even serious talk of the Parti Socialiste splitting permanently into at least two parties.

A number of hard-left factions hope to turn the PS into an anti-globalist, anti-capitalist and anti-European party, in alliance with the Communists and Trotskyists. If so, two of the party's elder statesmen suggested this week, centre-left reformers should be ready to form a social democratic party of the centre.

The former prime minister Michel Rocard said that the endless quarrel between the so-called "realist" and "real" Left within the PS must be settled once and for all. It would be better to split the party than to talk in endless circles, without addressing the true problems of France.

He was supported yesterday by the former health minister Bernard Kouchner, one of the most popular political figures in France.
"I approve Michel Rocard's idea that we should confront the pseudo-Marxists and their shabby utopias," said M. Kouchner, the founder of Médecins sans Frontières. "Should we risk a schism in the PS? Yes. We have gone past the time for surface reconciliations."

Officially, the party's uncharismatic, competent, centrist general secretary, François Hollande, holds the allegiance of a majority of Socialist deputies and almost two-thirds of the 102 regional federations. At the grassroots, however, party members are increasingly tempted by the anti-market, anti-EU rhetoric of a group of mutually distrustful and ambitious leaders.

The hard or "real" left within the party is divided between at least three "currents", or factions, led by the former prime minister Laurent Fabius, the former party treasurer Henri Emmanuelli and, an unctuous, rabble-rousing young lawyer, Arnaud Montebourg. At least two of these factions are divided within themselves. These divisions within the hard left - and a grassroots instinct to preserve a façade of unity - may save M. Hollande's job at the conference in Le Mans in November.

But M. Montebourg this week accused M. Hollande of leading the party to "two disasters": the split over the EU referendum and the failure of the Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, to reach the second round of the last presidential election in 2002."We cannot build anything with Hollande," M. Montebourg said.

To which the party spo-kesman, Julian Dray, said: "It is a pity some of my Socialist friends have not used their well-earned holidays to increase their wisdom. It seems some of them would have done better to shut up." Anyone for summer school?

Quote:

The pleasant term "summer school" fails to convey the depth of personal hatred and political division likely to be revealed within the ranks of the Parti Socialiste (PS) when they assemble in La Rochelle for three days from tomorrow.

l'atmosphère du traditionnel rendez-vous de rentrée du PS promet d'être chaude, et pas toujours franchement amicale

Its them Trots... soon as they get in on the act, there's trouble ;-)

Britain warns of Islamic backlash if EU snubs Turkey

By Stephen Castle in Brussels
Published: 09 September 2005

Britain and the United States have begun diplomatic moves to salvage Turkey's plans to open European Union membership talks next month, amid a growing crisis over Ankara's refusal to recognise Cyprus.

The Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, warned in a hard-hitting speech that snubbing Ankara's hopes would give ammunition to Islamic extremists, while welcoming it into the EU would help avert a "clash of civilisations" between the Muslim world and the West. Failure to start EU membership negotiations on 3 October as scheduled could lead Europe into a "crisis on our own doorstep," Mr Straw said.

Washington stepped up the pressure on the Europeans when a senior State Department official said, after talks in Brussels, that it was in the interests of the EU, Turkey and the US that the membership talks go ahead.

Most diplomats still expect EU membership talks - which could last a decade - to begin on 3 October, but the next few weeks will be fraught with diplomatic brinkmanship.

Behind the scenes, tensions are running high and Cyprus said yesterday it expected to see an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers called before the talks with Turkey are due to start. Britain, which holds the EU presidency, hopes to avoid the need for a meeting.

Since EU member states agreed last year to open talks with Turkey, the political climate in Europe has changed following "no" votes in referendums in France and the Netherlands on the proposed constitution. The German opposition leader Angela Merkel is against full EU membership for Turkey - as are all the main political parties in Austria - and last month the French Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, said it was "inconceivable" that talks could start without Turkey recognising one of its 25 member states.

Turkey has met the formal conditions for starting the membership talks, which include promising to extend a customs union to all EU member states. But Ankara has complicated its prospects by issuing a declaration highlighting the fact that it does not recognise Cyprus, which joined the EU last May. That appeared to call into question whether Cypriot ships or planes would be allowed into Turkish ports and airports, despite Turkey's pledge to extend the customs union.

On Wednesday, EU ambassadors failed to agree the text of a counter-statement designed to underscore Cyprus's rights of access to Turkish ports. All 25 EU countries also have to agree another text setting out a negotiating mandate before the talks can begin. Any additional conditions placed on Turkey could prompt it to walk away from the talks.

The US urged the EU yesterday to embrace Turkey. Kurt Volker, the principal deputy assistant secretary of state, said he was "encouraged by the state of play though there is work to be done. It is in the EU's interests, in Turkey's interests and in our interests to see accession talks beginning but, clearly, this is a decision for the EU to take forward."

The US has long backed Turkey's EU membership bid, though declarations backing Turkey by President George Bush have been interpreted in some countries as being counter-productive interference.

Britain and the United States have begun diplomatic moves to salvage Turkey's plans to open European Union membership talks next month, amid a growing crisis over Ankara's refusal to recognise Cyprus.

The Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, warned in a hard-hitting speech that snubbing Ankara's hopes would give ammunition to Islamic extremists, while welcoming it into the EU would help avert a "clash of civilisations" between the Muslim world and the West. Failure to start EU membership negotiations on 3 October as scheduled could lead Europe into a "crisis on our own doorstep," Mr Straw said.

Washington stepped up the pressure on the Europeans when a senior State Department official said, after talks in Brussels, that it was in the interests of the EU, Turkey and the US that the membership talks go ahead.

Most diplomats still expect EU membership talks - which could last a decade - to begin on 3 October, but the next few weeks will be fraught with diplomatic brinkmanship.

Behind the scenes, tensions are running high and Cyprus said yesterday it expected to see an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers called before the talks with Turkey are due to start. Britain, which holds the EU presidency, hopes to avoid the need for a meeting.

Since EU member states agreed last year to open talks with Turkey, the political climate in Europe has changed following "no" votes in referendums in France and the Netherlands on the proposed constitution. The German opposition leader Angela Merkel is against full EU membership for Turkey - as are all the main political parties in Austria - and last month the French Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, said it was "inconceivable" that talks could start without Turkey recognising one of its 25 member states.
Turkey has met the formal conditions for starting the membership talks, which include promising to extend a customs union to all EU member states. But Ankara has complicated its prospects by issuing a declaration highlighting the fact that it does not recognise Cyprus, which joined the EU last May. That appeared to call into question whether Cypriot ships or planes would be allowed into Turkish ports and airports, despite Turkey's pledge to extend the customs union.

On Wednesday, EU ambassadors failed to agree the text of a counter-statement designed to underscore Cyprus's rights of access to Turkish ports. All 25 EU countries also have to agree another text setting out a negotiating mandate before the talks can begin. Any additional conditions placed on Turkey could prompt it to walk away from the talks.

The US urged the EU yesterday to embrace Turkey. Kurt Volker, the principal deputy assistant secretary of state, said he was "encouraged by the state of play though there is work to be done. It is in the EU's interests, in Turkey's interests and in our interests to see accession talks beginning but, clearly, this is a decision for the EU to take forward."

The US has long backed Turkey's EU membership bid, though declarations backing Turkey by President George Bush have been interpreted in some countries as being counter-productive interference.

Merkel could transform EU

Fri Sep 9, 2005 1:25 PM BST


By Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Angela Merkel could transform the European Union, but it is not clear whether the conservative German opposition leader will seize the opportunity, even assuming she wins a general election in nine days' time.

Merkel has called for economic reforms to rekindle Germany's sluggish economy, vowed to take greater account of smaller European partners and neighbours, and criticised the EU's costly farm subsidy policy that mostly benefits France.

That has prompted speculation about shifting alliances within the 25-nation EU and new momentum to overhaul Europe's creaking economic and social model, possibly in partnership with free-marketeering Britain.

But the reality may be less radical, especially if an inconclusive vote forces her Christian Democrats (CDU) to form a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) rather than an alliance with the economically liberal Free Democrats.

"She could put herself at the head of a movement for reform in Europe. It all depends on her determination to exercise leadership," said Jean Pisani-Ferry, a former economic adviser to the French government who heads the Bruegel economic think-tank in Brussels.

"She has declared her intention to reform in several areas, particularly labour markets and fiscal policy, with flatter taxes. That's bound to carry others along with it given Germany's size," he said.

But he noted that SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had kept his Agenda 2010 of labour market and welfare reforms a purely national programme without trying to galvanise even the 12 countries that share the euro single currency.

HARD CORE?

Under Schroeder, Germany and France renewed their close alliance after a period of estrangement, but it was often to resist change rather than promote it.

The Franco-German axis, which was in the vanguard of European integration from the 1950s to the early 1990s, was no longer able to exert strong leadership in an enlarged Union, whether on the Iraq war, the EU budget or economic policy.

They acted jointly to brake economic liberalisation, notably in cross-border services, loosen fiscal discipline and perpetuate the EU's Common Agricultural Policy.

"During the last three years, Schroeder has revived Germany's close relations with France in ways that damaged ties with the United States, the UK and the countries of central and Eastern Europe," Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform, wrote in an essay.

"Germany will not be able to restore its position as one of the EU's natural leaders so long as its economy continues to stagnate," said Grant.

He argued that the next Berlin government should take a lead in reinvigorating the EU's Lisbon process of economic reform, continuing to work with France but involving Britain, Spain, Poland and smaller countries more frequently.

Senior Polish conservative Jaczek Saryusz-Wolski, tipped as a possible foreign minister after parliamentary elections to be held this month, told Reuters he expected Merkel to help lead a more pro-American, pro-business Europe that would take a more united and critical approach towards Russia.

The new German government will take office at a time when European integration has been halted, at least temporarily, by the French and Dutch votes against the EU constitution, casting doubt on the pace of further enlargement of the bloc.

Merkel has made CDU veteran Wolfgang Schaueble her top foreign affairs adviser. He co-authored a report in the mid-1990s calling for a hard core of EU countries around Germany and France to move forward faster with integration.

But he seems unlikely to become foreign minister, a job usually reserved for the junior coalition partner, and Merkel's emphasis on rebuilding damaged ties with Poland and Germany's central European hinterland runs counter to the hard core idea.

Merkel's opposition to Turkish membership puts her at odds with the central Europeans, as well as with Britain and the United States. But she made clear in a television debate with Schroeder that she would not block the planned start of accession negotiations on October 3.

Monday, 12 September 2005,

France-UK 'deal on Turkey talks'

Britain and France have agreed on a formula to enable EU accession talks with Turkey to go ahead next month as planned, diplomats say.
The deal would make Turkish recognition of Cyprus a condition for joining the EU, but it would not be required early on in the negotiations, reports say.

Turkey has signed a customs union with the 25 EU states, but it refuses to recognise the Greek Cypriot government.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974. The Turkish north remains under an embargo.

Cyprus has not yet accepted the Franco-British compromise deal.

A Cypriot government spokesman said simply: "We have been briefed on the points on which France has insisted."

Tough negotiations

Turkey is scheduled to begin accession talks with the EU on 3 October. But concerns have been raised by leaders in several EU states about Ankara's continuing refusal to recognise Cyprus.

Turkey reiterated its refusal on 29 July, insisting that the recognition question be linked to a UN-brokered settlement to reunite the island.

Last year, the Greek Cypriots rejected a UN-sponsored peace plan.

France had attacked Turkey's July statement, calling it a snub to the EU which could not be allowed to stand.

But the BBC's Jonny Dymond in Brussels says the reported British-French compromise has cleared one hurdle from the negotiations.

Nevertheless, more hurdles lie ahead for the Turkish bid - and EU membership is at least a decade away, he says.

Norway isn't in the EU, but since this thread has also become something of a depository for discussing politics in the different European countries, I thought it'd be interesting to post this peek into a the politics of a country that's still slanted in a bit of a different direction - and doesn't seem to suffer much from it.

Norway's opposition left appears slightly ahead in cliffhanger election

September 12, 2005, 21:41 gmt

OSLO (AFP) - Norway's opposition left appeared slightly ahead of the incumbent government as voting closed in the country's election, according to exit polls.

Norway's opposition left appeared slightly ahead of the incumbent government as voting closed in the country's election, according to exit polls.
A poll conducted by Gallup for privately-held TV2 broadcast at 8:00 pm (1800 GMT) credited the opposition parties with a combined 86 seats in the 169 member parliament, against 83 for Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik and his allies

A second poll, by MMI for public broadcaster NRK, credited the opposition with 85 seats, against 84 for Bondevik and his allies. The opposition count includes two projected seats for the communist RV party, which is not part of Labor leader and former leftist prime minister Jens Stoltenberg's alliance.

The margin of error in both polls still allowed for the trend to change.

Stoltenberg said during the election campaign that he would only form a government if he and his allies won an absolute majority.

The makeup of the next government will not be announced until after parliament re-assembles on October 10.

Some 3.4 million Norwegians were eligible to cast their votes to determine who will lead their country for the next four years.

Opinion polls in recent days have shown Bondevik's minority coalition in a neck-and-neck race with the rival left coalition.

The election campaign focused on the distribution of Norway's abundant oil wealth, and the week before the election saw a major trend reversal with polls swinging back to the right after putting the left in the lead for two years.

Bondevik has touted the country's robust economic health during his government's four years in power.

Stoltenberg's Labor Party, the Socialist Left Party and the agrarian Center Party, which have presented a united front for the first time, have meanwhile attacked Bondevik's tax cuts for the wealthy, and proposed instead more spending on education, healthcare and welfare.

Bondevik has countered that Stoltenberg's promises would destroy jobs and drive interest rates higher.

In Drammen, southwest of Oslo, 85-year-old Gunnar Moelsted said he hoped Stoltenberg would succeed in wresting back power from the ruling coalition, made up of the Christian Democrats, the Conservatives and the Liberals.

"I've voted for Labor every single year except for 1945, that's when I voted for the Communists. Then I went to Poland and I lost my appetite for Communism. I think this will go okay. I don't think there'll be any more Bondevik," he told AFP.

Businessman Yngvar Berg, 42, disagreed. "I'm really hoping the center-right coalition government will win. It's extremely important that we don't end up with a leftist experiment, which I'm sure would turn out to be the most expensive adult training course (in business) in history".

Minority governments have been the rule in Norway, and prime ministers here have enjoyed an outright parliamentary majority only twice in the past 36 years.

If neither coalition manages an absolute majority this time, small parties, such as the tiny pro-whaling Coastal Party, could find themselves in the position of kingmaker.

The Coastal Party's leading figure Steinar Bastesen, a colorful character often seen clad in a sealskin vest, has refused to say which side he would support.

Another twist is that the incumbent government ally, the far-right Progress Party, could turn a still possible center-right victory into defeat and create a government crisis if it goes ahead with its threat of not supporting Bondevik as prime minister.

"If we get 20 percent of the vote the other parties on the right will no longer be able to ignore us," Progress Party chief Carl Ivar Hagen told the NTB news agency.

The Progress Party won 14.6 percent of the vote in 2001, but recent polls have placed it at around 20 percent, which would make it Norway's second largest political party after Labor.

According to NRK's exit poll, the Progress Party has landed 19.1 percent of votes.

Even if the left does win an absolute majority, no major changes are expected in the way the country is run, according to observers, with Norway's oil wealth largely ensuring its prosperity for years to come.


© 2005 AFP.

With more than 98 percent of the votes from Monday's election counted, official results showed Jens Stoltenberg's three-party Red-Green alliance had won 88 seats in the 169-member assembly, enough to oust the center-right government. [..]

Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik, who campaigned on promises of tax cuts, said if the final tally confirmed the result, his government would resign after presenting its draft 2006 budget on Oct. 14. [..]

Bondevik's government has presided over four years of unprecedented prosperity in the country of 4.6 million, and the nation's wealth has been boosted by a windfall from record high oil prices. But critics complained of cracks in the welfare state, including shortcomings in education, health and elderly care. [..]

Bondevik, 58, a Christian Democrat and Lutheran minister who has led a three-party coalition government since 2001, had campaigned on promises of further reducing taxes while improving health care and education. Stoltenberg has ruled out tax cuts and called for more welfare spending. [..]

Carl I Hagen has for years been the proverbial Rodney Dangerfield of Norwegian politics, never getting any respect. Now, with 22.1 percent of the vote and a big increase in parliamentary representation, he expects that to change. [..]

He warmly thanked his supporters for making the Progress Party "the leading opposition party" in Parliament and "the biggest non-socialist party" of them all. He trounced the Conservatives, which only eked out 14 percent of the vote [..]

This in turn highlights a political irony about the Progress and Labour parties: Despite seemingly vast differences in political ideology, the two agree on several points in their party platforms. Both support more funding for nursing homes, for example, and for an array of other social services. Both are in favour of oil exploration in Arctic areas, and support gas plants.

So while Hagen already is referring derisively to Labour leader Jens Stoltenberg "and his girlfriends" (the two female leaders of Labour's government partners), and rattling the sabres of opposition, Stoltenberg may find himself actually getting support from Hagen on a range of issues sure to come up during the next four years.

Challenges abound for Jens

Jens Stoltenberg and his new government partners, the Center Party and the Socialist Left, have a long list of issues to resolve in order to put forward a united front as a ruling government coalition. They've already agreed to disagree on whether Norway should join the European Union.

The three parties have sharply differing views on whether, for example, Norway should drill for more oil in the Barents Sea, build gas plants or remain in NATO. They'll retreat to a conference center in the hills above Oslo on Tuesday, to start hashing out a government platform. [..]

Labour, which started adopting a more moderate brand of politics in the 1990s, likely won't be making any major radical turns, even though it will be cooperating with the Socialist Left (SV), known for a much more left-wing brand of socialist politics.

Stoltenberg and his Labour Party have some clear advantages [..]. They will lead the coalition from a position of relative strength, after winning more than 60 seats in Parliament and 32.7 percent of the vote.

SV, however, was relatively battered at the polls and heads into a government coalition with just 8.7 percent of voter support and a major loss of seats in Parliament.

[T]he Center Party [..] remains adamantely opposed to Norwegian membership in the European Union while Stoltenberg supports it. [It] has traditionally championed the interests of Norwegian farmers and the country's outlying districts, fighting the influence of global free markets in order to subsidize life outside Norway's cities. [..]

The pressure is on for the three parties to find common ground if they hope to hold on to government power. Labour has never been part of a government coalition before [having previously always governed by itself], and SV has never been part of a government at all [..]