dlowan wrote:
In my utter naivete re North Korea, I would guess that the attitude of China would be extremely relevant...if even China still has any influence.
It seems China is perturbed by the chances of a nuclear NK. However, the leadership of NK seem unperturbed by the sufferings of their unfortunate populace, and, unlike South Africa, which still wanted to to maintain ties with the outside world, this does not seem an influence in NK.
I do wonder if there are people in the military in NK who may be driven to stage a coup if the costs of the policies of their loony leader become too great?
What do people who know something about the country think?
China's problem with NKorea is twofold, as I've pointed out before. On the one hand, it doesn't want the PDRK to have nukes and it's mightily chagrined at Pres. Kim. On the other hand, it can't wholeheartedly support the UN sanctions because the North Korean people are largely dependent on China for even minimal creature comforts (e.g. food) and the last thing China wants to see is for the PDRK to collapse. If it did, the flow of refugees into China would become nightmarish.
Your suggestion that the military might be considering a coup is intriguing, dlowan, but I see no evidence of such a possibility. Beloved Leader is as much in control of the military as of everything else. Any general or other high-ranking officer who had the temerity to be contemplating such a plan would have been executed immediately on mere suspicion. His comrades would have betrayed him because they want to be on Kim's good side. The situation was quite similar in Iraq under Saddam Hussein.
The sanctions won't work for the simple reason that they are unenforceable, given the sizeable border that the DPRK has with China. What China does to stifle Kim Jong-Il's ambitions in the coming months is crucial -- whether it's the stick or the carrot approach.
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