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Questioning Determinism

 
 
stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Aug, 2006 06:29 pm
Quote:
Oh, I know what a 'claim' is, Stuh. I've filed a few in my time. Do you, btw, know what 'irony' is?


Merry,

So, you don't think that asserting something as fact is a claim? Or you do? Because you made a statement without prefacing it with anything humble like, "in my opinion"...

Of course I know what irony is. Perhaps you are making the point that I am being hypocritical for pointing out your claim, when I was making claims as well? Indeed I did make some claims....but unlike your claims, mine are considered factual by most people and have lots of evidence backing them up. I inserted one opinion at the end which is not a claim because I did not say it was a fact.
0 Replies
 
Doktor S
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Aug, 2006 06:53 pm
Re: Questioning Determinism
Ray wrote:
One of the propositions of determinism is that future events are theoretically able to be predicted. This begs several questions:

The foundation of determinism as I understand it, is everything is a middle link in a chain-link fence of causes that continues ever forward. The ability to predict it or lack thereof is neither here nor there.
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2) If the universe is not eternal, and if theoretically being able to determine the future means being able to theoretically determine the past, would not the beginning of the universe be a cause causing itself?

Not if the 'cause' originated outside what we understand to be the universe.
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3) Suppose that you can know the "future," would not knowing this "future" result in the alteration of the actual future?

Yes, which is a good argument for not being able to predict the future.
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4) How can a being of a system know all the factors within that system without altering it?

It can't. It is part of the system.
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5) According to the Uncertainty Principle, one can't measure the momentum and position of an elementary particle at the same time. This would mean that it is impossible for us to obtain the complete data regarding the interaction of particles. Would that not hinder the theoretical ability to predict the future?

It sure would. But again, that we can not, given technological and other limitations, predict the future, fails as any sort of critique of determinism, as it is purely irrelevant to the theory itself.
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Ray
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Aug, 2006 09:05 pm
Quote:
Being able to determine the future does NOT imply that the past can be determined. There would be infinite possible pasts that correspond to any given future. It is possible to make probabilistic guesses about the past, and this is of course what a lot of scientists are trying to figure out (geologists, astronomers, etc). The only difference is that in your thought experiment we possess all knowable information and in real life we must make measurements to gain information.


Actually that's not quite true. If you can know everything about the universe right now and can predict what will happen, if determinism is right that is, then you can theoretically work backwards and determine the past.

For example, if an isolated system merely contains two marbles:

- If an event occurs where Marble A, starting out at Position(initial) A, collides with Marble B, in Position(initial) B, with a certain momentum at an Angle Theta, and Marble A ends up in Position(final) A and Marble B ends up in Position(final) B,

- Assuming that you can know and do know every property within this system and assuming no outside systems interact with this system,

- Then it is possible for you to know what will happen

-- Also, theoretically you can also know, if you know everything within that system when you are at Time(final), where Marble(A) and Marble(B) starts out, what their Momentum(initial)s are, the Angle Theta, Time(initial), etc. Thus you would be able to predict the past. It is actually common for a Physics question to ask something similar to this where you are ask to determine the initial momentum or position of a certain object.

My initial problem in my post, is also that of a beginning. If there is an absolute beginning, then it must follow that a cause of this beginning is the effect itself. This seems to contradict the premise of determinism.

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If you believe in determinism, then there is only one possible future, and nothing at all can influence it in the slightest bit because every decision you make, and all the associated chemical reactions in your brain, could be predicted.


Yes, but there is a problem in the hypothesis of knowing a future in that a person knowing a certain "future" may decide to do something otherwise. In that case the "future" he or she sees, will be altered and will not be the actual future, which would question how much we can really know of the future.

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Answered already above.


It seemed like a similar question, but it is different than the last question. My question for this was that if the "knower" is within a system, and since, based on our information of how we know empirically, then the "knower" would have to interact physically with other parts of the system in order to "know" and thus something within the system has already changed.

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Yes, all of modern physics is based on the underlying principle that the universe is not deterministic.

However, I consider it important to understand that the Uncertainty Principle, like ALL scientific theories, is simply an idea that somebody thought of which has been shown to make accurate predictions of the physical world.

In this case, the uncertainty principle represents the fact that scientists have observed literally random or uncertain behavior.

However, just because it appears random does not necessarily make it so, and there are still scientists who (like Einstein) believe that behind the uncertainty principle lie more simple, deterministic laws that merely cause things to appear random at a higher level.

There are some interesting effects such as entanglement which show that although two individual particles may both appear to be acting randomly when considered separately, the two of them are dependent on each other. I consider this to be evidence for some lower level determinism but that's a radical, personal opinion.

It is most likely that we will never know, truly, how the universe works at it's most basic level because it is like a black box paradigm. There are infinite possible ways to build a clock, and there are only so many tests you can do on a clock without opening it up to see how it works. We can only "open up" particles so far before the very instruments that we are using to make measurements start to dramatically change what we are measuring. This is actually how the uncertainty principle was conceived in the first place.


I agree that quantum physics is incomplete. However, the uncertainty principle is showing the limit of experimentation. It shows that if you are experimenting a certain velocity of an electron at a certain time, you will not be able to measure its momentum at that time either because the momentum has been changed when you measure it, and/or because you cannot rewind time and preserve the data of the velocity with you. There are also many paradoxes to time travel in this case.

Also, think of how we record our data. We are using photons, or other particles. Also think of what it means to record data, it means that something has to interact with something.

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The foundation of determinism as I understand it, is everything is a middle link in a chain-link fence of causes that continues ever forward. The ability to predict it or lack thereof is neither here nor there.


No, one of the premises or suggestion of determinism is that you can theoretically predict the future.

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Not if the 'cause' originated outside what we understand to be the universe.


That's an interesting statement, but it is based on an assumption. Also if the "knower" can know this force outside the universe, then you have the same problem.

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Yes, which is a good argument for not being able to predict the future.


Yes, agree completely with your statement here.
0 Replies
 
Merry Andrew
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Aug, 2006 09:40 pm
In my opinion, Stuh, I think we are talking at cross-purposes here. I believe that you are being quite serious while I am, it seems to me, being a wise-ass. But I could be wrong. It could be the other way around. In my opinion, that is.
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Aug, 2006 11:18 pm
Quote:
My initial problem in my post, is also that of a beginning. If there is an absolute beginning, then it must follow that a cause of this beginning is the effect itself. This seems to contradict the premise of determinism.


Indeed, it troubles all the -isms. It's like death, like infinity, out of human beings' imagination.

I have a question: It seems to me that "predicting future" you are talking about is only "predicting future of the dead world". But can the world of consciousness be predicted? ....I can't bring myself to think so.
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 07:19 am
Ray wrote:
Actually that's not quite true. If you can know everything about the universe right now and can predict what will happen, if determinism is right that is, then you can theoretically work backwards and determine the past.


The marble example you provided is the most obvious thing that comes to mind and does seem to suggest that the past can be predicted absolutely. This was the first thing that I considered when I responded but I decided it wasn't true.

For instance, consider a universe consisting of two particles that come close together and assume binary orbit paths. I don't think it's possible to predict their initial velocities. Can you find a way?

I also intuitively feel that there ought to be a way to construct an experiment where the motion of a particle is converted to em radiation in such a way that you can't predict what the original motion was...however I cannot actually think of this example yet.

For example, consider a universe consisting of simply a metal bowl with a marble placed at the top edge. The marble rolls down into the bowl and eventually reaches a steady state at the bottom. Can we tell where the marble came from? Yes because the bowl is heated non-uniformly. But eventually it cools to it's original temperature emitting the heat as radiation. Can we tell where it came from? Yes because if light behaves deterministically we can trace it back to the bowl and see what parts would have been heated.

Quote:
Yes, but there is a problem in the hypothesis of knowing a future in that a person knowing a certain "future" may decide to do something otherwise. In that case the "future" he or she sees, will be altered and will not be the actual future, which would question how much we can really know of the future.


You're definitely wrong about that one.

1) If things are deterministic, then it is predictable what knowledge a person will have in the future, even if that is knowledge of the future. Therefore, the actions that we predict for that person would already be based on their potential knowledge of the future.

2) You assume that humans have some kind of "free will" in which we can make arbitrary choices. Perhaps this is true, but that right there is not deterministic, and therefore in our hypothetical deterministic universe we must assume it is not true. If people really can make arbitrary decisions, then you don't even need to use someone's ability to know the future to counter determinism -- you can just say that at any point, for any reason, they could act in a unpredictable way.

In a deterministc universe our brains would still be represented by a complex configuration of particles like in your billiard example. Therefore, being able to make a decision that is not entirely predictable boils down to billiard balls not moving in a predictable way.

Quote:

I agree that quantum physics is incomplete. However, the uncertainty principle is showing the limit of experimentation. It shows that if you are experimenting a certain velocity of an electron at a certain time, you will not be able to measure its momentum at that time either because the momentum has been changed when you measure it, and/or because you cannot rewind time and preserve the data of the velocity with you.

...

Also, think of how we record our data. We are using photons, or other particles. Also think of what it means to record data, it means that something has to interact with something.


Indeed...I agree with all of this, it seems to be mostly a rephrasing of what I said.
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Doktor S
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 12:13 pm
Ray,
Whether or not the universe works on the cause/effect principle or not, and whether or not we primitive apes can predict this universe, is purely apples/oranges.
I suggest you have created a strawman.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 12:40 pm
Chaos theory emerged from the collective efforts of mathematicians and (interestingly) meteorologists working to create numerical models of the atmosphere to produce local and large area climatological and weather predictions. They started with the entirely deterministic rules or laws of Newtonian mechanics and thermodynamics, expressed in algebraic approximations, and used the rapidly exploding capabilities of computers to make their predictions. The central finding was that, though the results usually looked like and had the general characteristics of real weather, they very rapidly departed from any meaningful relation to the reality that eventually emerged in observations. In 1972 global numerical models of the atmosphere could produce useful results for predictions out to a few days : today after mega increases in computing speed and power the predictions are still good for only a few days.

All this led to the understanding and mathematical analysis of so-called Chaotic systems -- they can (in the mathematical sense) be entirely deterministic but still not predictable in any quantifiable way. There are several, some subtle, causes for this, but the generally expressed explanation is the so-called sensitive dependence on initial conditions -- a dependence that is imbedded in the non-linear rules and parameters of the deterministic system itself. Chaotic systems have other interesting properties - they are self-regulating and exhibit certain fairly constant gross properties, but the unfolding of their detailed structure defies prediction.

It turns out that such systems abound in nature, and much of our science has long ignored this aspect of its inherent limitations. For example, the movement of the planets in our solar system are not immune to chaotic fluctuations, arising either out of small variations in their mutual gravitational effects or the disturbance of an asteroid passing through their orbital plane. A related observation is that many of the "models" used to provide long range atmospheric predictions in the global warming debate are themselves meaningless extrapolations.

This, admittedly narrow mathematical and scientific finding has profound philosophical implications. Most relevant to this discussion is that - even without quantum uncertainty - there is no necessary connection between a presumed deterministic world and man's ability to predict its future - or deduce its past with precision.
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JLNobody
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 01:39 pm
J-B, you ask "But can the world of consciousness be predicted? " I think not insofar as the future does not exist, when we talk about it we are really talking about the present "extrapolated." I think it was Karl Popper who argued that since future human behavior (and I guess this would include the content of human consciousness) involves future (not yet existing) human knowledge, we cannot predict or describe human behavior or consciousness at least to the extent that our predictions and descriptions rest on future knowledge. If we could, it would in fact be PRESENT KNOWLEDGE.

We have suffered a number of threads on determinism (especially as the counter of free will), and I have concluded it is a sophmoric pseudo problem. Causality (the notions of cause and effect) is a tool to think with but not a characteristic of the cosmos. Therefore, I will ask what brought about (caused) my car not to start (effect), but I do not think of the universe as a deterministic system. This seems to be increasingly supported by the new physics.
We may see a marble stop as it touches another one, and the other move as we see the contact, but phenomenologically that's all we SEE. We THINK causality but we do not see it (Hume has already made a similar case).
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Ray
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 05:11 pm
Quote:
For instance, consider a universe consisting of two particles that come close together and assume binary orbit paths. I don't think it's possible to predict their initial velocities. Can you find a way?


I'm not sure what you mean, but in this instance if a person is at the initial time rather than the final time, can the person predict the future paths of these particles?

Quote:
You're definitely wrong about that one.

1) If things are deterministic, then it is predictable what knowledge a person will have in the future, even if that is knowledge of the future. Therefore, the actions that we predict for that person would already be based on their potential knowledge of the future.

2) You assume that humans have some kind of "free will" in which we can make arbitrary choices. Perhaps this is true, but that right there is not deterministic, and therefore in our hypothetical deterministic universe we must assume it is not true. If people really can make arbitrary decisions, then you don't even need to use someone's ability to know the future to counter determinism -- you can just say that at any point, for any reason, they could act in a unpredictable way.

In a deterministc universe our brains would still be represented by a complex configuration of particles like in your billiard example. Therefore, being able to make a decision that is not entirely predictable boils down to billiard balls not moving in a predictable way.


I think that the suggestion of a knower, whose only intention or consideration in knowing the future is to try and do the opposite, contradicts the concept of a physical being who can know the exact future in a deterministic universe. This is not saying that the person relies on random events.

This is a rough outline of my line of thought:

"Abe has knowledge of the future (Kf) in time T2 and he is in time T1:

a) He knows every factor that leads him to do a certain action X in time T2 in the future.
b) His action X in T2 is also a result of him knowing the future.
c) In T1 he decides to try and choose the opposite of X in T2
d) His only regard is to change X with Kf, and this intention is constant throughout T1 to T2.

Since X is also a result of Abe intending to change X, can X ever be predicted?"

This seems problematic to me. If you can or have the time to explain your view, I'd like to hear it.

Quote:
Causality (the notions of cause and effect) is a tool to think with but not a characteristic of the cosmos


Wouldn't you have to define what you mean by "characteristic of the cosmos"? Causality seems like a necessity for a conscious awareness of the universe, but this necessity is not something "made up," it is still a part of the cosmos.
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 06:00 pm
Quote:
I'm not sure what you mean, but in this instance if a person is at the initial time rather than the final time, can the person predict the future paths of these particles?


Ok consider 2 Newtonian particles and a hypothetical force called Farce which is the only force in the universe. Farce is attractive between all particles and follows an inverse square law with regards to distance. Regardless of the particles' initial velocity, they constant force between them will eventually draw them together and into a continuous orbit around a common center of mass. This entire process is easily predicted because their future velocity and position is a simple function of their previous positions. However, any number of initial positions and velocities could have put them into the same orbit period. There is no way that I can see to predict what the past was at this point.

Quote:

This is a rough outline of my line of thought:

"Abe has knowledge of the future (Kf) in time T2 and he is in time T1:

a) He knows every factor that leads him to do a certain action X in time T2 in the future.
b) His action X in T2 is also a result of him knowing the future.
c) In T1 he decides to try and choose the opposite of X in T2
d) His only regard is to change X with Kf, and this intention is constant throughout T1 to T2.

Since X is also a result of Abe intending to change X, can X ever be predicted?"

This seems problematic to me. If you can or have the time to explain your view, I'd like to hear it.


Ok, I thought my explanation on this before was pretty straightforward but I'll try again.

The confusion is in step A. You say that Abe knows all the possible things that will cause X to occur at T2. Remember that we are talking about a deterministic universe. By definition of what a deterministic universe is, the event at T2 can be known with 100% certainty. So if Abe knows all the factors that can cause X to happen, Abe already knows if it will happen or not.

He may know that X is going to happen AND not WANT X to happen, but in this case he ALSO knows that the energy distribution and particles in his brain are going to cause him to act in such a way that it will happen, because his brain is made up of particles which are deterministic as well.

In short, by knowing the future, Abe realizes that he does not actually make "choices" he merely is a mechanism that continues on it's own "momentum" so to speak. At this point, he will probably start to feel detached from his body when he realizes that "he" is not really in control, but instead the forces of the universe are in control.

That IS determinism.
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Shapeless
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Aug, 2006 11:33 pm
stuh505 wrote:
Just because it's philosophy doesn't mean it has to be moronic.


I think I found me a new tagline. Very Happy
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JLNobody
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Aug, 2006 04:09 pm
What could Stuh's meaning be behind "Just because it's philosophy doesn't mean it has to be moronic"?
Such a statement seems designed to give aid and comfort to the mindless advocates of naive realism, the philistines of common sensical non-sense. That is inconsistent with the thinker-artist I know Stuh to be.
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Aug, 2006 04:32 pm
My point is that there are far too many nonsensical ideas protected by the cloak of "philosophy."

I don't know what realism means in this context, but you seem to be implying that nobody with any brains would support it. Why is that?
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JLNobody
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Aug, 2006 11:11 pm
Stuh, I'm referring to "naive realism," a technical epistemological category. Look it up.
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Aug, 2006 06:26 am
Ok. Naive realism is a great example of moronic philosophy, at least as described by Wikipedia. I say that it is moronic because it is false as stated, but could easily be re-state to preserve the gist of the argument in a correct way by accounting for the indirect and potentially inaccurate way that we percieve things via our sensors and interpretation of that sensory data by the brain.
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Ray
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Aug, 2006 02:02 am
Quote:
Ok consider 2 Newtonian particles and a hypothetical force called Farce which is the only force in the universe. Farce is attractive between all particles and follows an inverse square law with regards to distance. Regardless of the particles' initial velocity, they constant force between them will eventually draw them together and into a continuous orbit around a common center of mass. This entire process is easily predicted because their future velocity and position is a simple function of their previous positions. However, any number of initial positions and velocities could have put them into the same orbit period. There is no way that I can see to predict what the past was at this point.


Right, this does seem to mean that predicting the past cannot always occur in a deterministic universe.

Just to be very critical however, this is assuming a universe where the natural laws enable two events to end up producing the same effect and produce no distinguishing effect on anything else. I don't know if this assumption is correct within the set of natural laws that exist for us.

Quote:
The confusion is in step A. You say that Abe knows all the possible things that will cause X to occur at T2. Remember that we are talking about a deterministic universe. By definition of what a deterministic universe is, the event at T2 can be known with 100% certainty. So if Abe knows all the factors that can cause X to happen, Abe already knows if it will happen or not.

He may know that X is going to happen AND not WANT X to happen, but in this case he ALSO knows that the energy distribution and particles in his brain are going to cause him to act in such a way that it will happen, because his brain is made up of particles which are deterministic as well.

In short, by knowing the future, Abe realizes that he does not actually make "choices" he merely is a mechanism that continues on it's own "momentum" so to speak. At this point, he will probably start to feel detached from his body when he realizes that "he" is not really in control, but instead the forces of the universe are in control.

That IS determinism.


That is if you are assuming that prediction of the future is always compatible with causal events. By definition, hard determinism does suggest this, but by stating "deterministic universe" in my other post, I was thinking more of the first premise of determinism, that events are causal, and not strictly the other premise that states that future events are always in theory able to be predicted.

By having a physical being who has "knowledge of a future event" at T2 (that can be something as simple as reading a book), and whose brain function in such a way as to do something else other than X in T2, I was attempting to question the compatibility of causal events and theoretically knowing any events occurring in the future. I think that the situation does present a problem.

If a being is able to predict a small event in the future that the being will perform, in theory, but whose brain (and all the particles, forces, etc in it) is structured in such a way as to avoid the event, then I do not think that a prediction of the future is always compatible with causal events.

In my last post, I took a simple example of such a being named Abe. To elaborate on what I find to be problematic, assume that the event X may be reading a book. If Abe at T1 is able to predict this, then he will not do X. However, because X is supposed to consider Abe's motivation and how it will result, X may turn out to be not reading a book and instead be some other event. Therefore maybe Abe will see himself jogging instead of reading a book. However, since Abe's brain is structured in such a way as to avoid doing the event that he sees himself doing in the future, he will instead read the book. Thus if X is supposed to consider Abe's brain that is structured to avoid X, then X in Kf cannot actually be predicted since X relies on Abe not knowing the future.
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Aug, 2006 08:19 am
Ray,

Not much math or philosophy is required to notice that the universe is apparently causal at a macroscopic level. push man, man falls down. nobody is debating this kind of causality.

the only REAL question here is, at the most basic and fundamental level, are things deterministic? not "partially" deterministic!

in simple terms, your logic so far is something like this:

"The universe cannot be deterministic because humans don't behave deterministically."

sorry, but this kind of argument doesn't fly!
0 Replies
 
neologist
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Aug, 2006 08:35 am
We're pretty much limited by our perception of reality in terms of space and time, are we not? We may be aware of other dimensions, but can we articulate their nature?
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stuh505
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Aug, 2006 11:13 am
Quote:
We're pretty much limited by our perception of reality in terms of space and time, are we not? We may be aware of other dimensions, but can we articulate their nature?


I'm not sure what this has to do with determinism. Anyway, we are not aware of other dimensions...we are only aware of the possibility that there might be other dimensions. Even if there are other dimensions they are not going to be extra spatial dimensions like x,y,z so I don't think it would affect our visual perception if that's what you mean.
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