Stupid meteorology!

It's been raining all day. Train storms or something like that -- one storm after another in a chain. I was surprised to see that we're pulling moisture out of Ike all the way up here and that it's feeding our showers.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir4.html

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@JPB,

folks are watching the development of a tropical low (93L) that may eventually become TS Kyle.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

Also worth watching is the low pressure system off the Carolina coast. This is predicted to become the first noreaster of the season. The potential exists for these two systems to hook up and become a much bigger story later next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

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Eek, Nor'Easters. RP just took out one of the air conditioners. I'm not ready for a Nor'Easter yet.

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@jespah,

Ugh. Hot today. What happened to my lovely lovely autumnal weather?

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@littlek,

fret not.
it'll be hard-pressed to hit 70 this week.

A/C out... heavy blanket in!

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@Region Philbis,

It's been divine weather here lately. 5 - 10 celsius overnight, daytime highs between about 15 and 25 celsius. It could stay like this for me for half the year. Snow the other half Wink

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@ehBeth,

Typical nice autumn weather since a couple of days: cold at night (around 5°C), suny to clouded during the day with temperatures up to 18°-20°C , very nice to sit outside in the sun ...

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@Region Philbis,

Plus cuddling.

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@JPB,

models differ on where/when/strength of 93L but everyone from the mid-Atlantic seaboard through NE could have deteriorating conditions beginning as early as Wednesday night (winds) or Thursday morning (rain).

The models auto-update so the pictures in the post above are current.

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@JPB,

ok then... This may be a case of no one wanting to be caught with their shorts down but I'm hearing that some local forecasters in the mid-Atlantic states are already talking about the possible scenarios for this weekend. 93L is still over land, hasn't been upgraded to a tropical depression yet to say nothing of a named storm but...

Quote:

The track forecast - Dr Jeff Masters WU blog
The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, with a turn to the northwest or north-northwest on Tuesday. An extratropical storm is expected to develop off the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday, and five of our six reliable models predict that 93L and the extratropical storm will rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the U.S. East Coast on Friday somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts. The outlier is the UKMET model, which predicts that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between two storms that have yet to form, the current model forecasts for 93L are highly uncertain. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical storm affecting them by Friday.

emphasis added

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@JPB,

The entire East Coast? Well, there's specificity for ya.

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@jespah,

might wreak a wee bit o' havoc with our weekend plans down in the Gaithersburg / Potomac area...

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@Region Philbis,

This could turn out to be the perfect weekend to plan on being away from New England.

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@JPB,

But, but, but... I have plants to get in the ground.

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@littlek,

stay tuned... it changes by the hour.

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@littlek,

Although the rain totals expected over the next five days is pretty impressive.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/precip_sep23.gif

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@JPB,

What was supposed to become this weekend's nor'easter has formed off the Carolina coast and appears to be strengthening rapidly (94L).

Quote:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

The computer models are all over the place so we'll just have to wait and see how this develops.

93L, on the other hand is still stuck over the Dominican Republic dumping tons of rain there and on Puerto Rico.

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@littlek,

new updated rain forecasts.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/rain_sep25.jpg

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@JPB,

The five o'clock tracks for TS Kyle (previously 93L) have shifted slightly east. Folks in New England and the Maritime provinces probably want to pay attention to this one. Current tracks have the center of Kyle slightly to the east of Cape Cod as a cat 1 hurricane and continuing north before making landfall but another shift to the east will put it over eastern Mass.

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@JPB,

Oooh traveling on Sunday is gonna stink. Thanks for the heads up.

1 Reply

Stupid meteorology!

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