The end of Cuban Fidel Castro's rule?

From what I read and hear, Hugo Chavez has already taken over much of the role that the erstwhile USSR used to play in Cuba in terms of sustaining the Cuban economy. Venezuela has enough oil to make this sort of largesse fairly easy. But, of course, Chavez's position isn't all that strong, either. What happens when his regime topples in Venezuela?

Bush calls for democracy in Cuba

George Bush has told Cubans he would help them work for democratic change should the rule of Fidel Castro be nearing an end.

In his first public comments since Castro temporarily transferred power to his brother, Raul, due to illness Bush said on Thursday: "We have repeatedly said that the Cuban people deserve to live in freedom.

"We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba."

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2949B753-1E42-46B6-99FE-7AF934B4B058.htm



Democracy? Freedom? Is he having a laugh? Does he think the Cubans are stupid? That they have no short or long term memory? Guantanamo Bay Prison with all it's crimes against humanity is not bringing democracy...
Nor is it a symbol of freedom.

BBB
One of the big problems I see on the sans Castro Cuba is the attempt of Cuban exiles trying to regain their ownership of property, businesses, etc. prior to the revolution which are now owned by others. There are many foreign corporations, including many American, whose property was nationalized that will want them restored.

Will organized crime families try to restore their position in Cuba?

Lots of problems ahead beyond the power of the Castros.

BBB

Reporters Shut Out Of Cuba At Key Moment
Reporters Shut Out Of Cuba At Key Moment
By E&P Staff
Published: August 03, 2006 8:25 PM ET

At a momentous moment in Cuban history -- with long-time strongman Fidel Castro in a sickbed and transferring his power to his brother -- foreign journalists are being shut out of the Communist island.

Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa reported Thursday that more than 150 foreign journalists trying to enter Cuba with tourist visas have been turned away at the Havana airport since the government announced Castro had internal bleeding and faced "complicated surgery."

Journalists need a work visa to work legally in Cuba, and a spokesman of the government-controlled International Press Center told dpa there would be no exceptions.

"Across the whole world there is currently great interest (in Cuba), but nowhere on the planet can a journalist report with a tourist visa," the agency quoted an unnamed press center representative as saying.

The representative told the agency that no journalists have been expelled from the country, and none are being denied information. Castro, however, in a statement issued in his name Tuesday said that information about his health is a "state secret" that could be exploited by the enemy U.S. government.

The New York City-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) urged Cuba to let foreign journalists into the country.

"We call on Cuban authorities to let journalists do their work without harassment or obstruction," Americas program coordinator Carlos Lauria said in a statement. "It is critical that foreign journalists be allowed into Cuba to report the news on the handover of power by Castro, a story of global importance. We are also troubled by reports that Cuba is denying requests for journalists' visas."

Re: BBB


I suspect that such "organized crime families" are but a very small part of the Cuban diaspora. Most were middle class and entreprenurs who had the ability and foresight to get out while they could.

I agree with you about the likely struggles over ownership of property formerly held by exiles and foreign corporations. Thjs will be an interesting question for all those who place so much emphasis on the supposed institutions of international law.

As long as the regime can hold together this problem will be deferred. It also represents a trump card for the regime, at least as it pertains to the present holders or occupiers of the property.

The more I think about it the more I like the idea of luring Chavez into a rescue operation. Let Cuba drain Venezuela just as it drained the USSR.

The more I think about your thought, georgeob1, the more I think you're devilish! Cuba & Bolivia are both starting to drain Venezuela, but as long as oil prices are this high, it will be no problem for Chavez.

Both you and BBB made good points.

There's a lack of work ethics in Cuba today ("the State fakes that it pays us, we fake that we work", goes the saying), although I don't think it will take as long as two generations to overcome it. Cubans are too eager to consume, and they´ll have to learn that you gotta work hard to consume.

And yes, property claims from exiled Cubans can be a mess, and are a good card for the Communist regime.
My personal opinion is that too many years have passed since the main expropiations (almost 50!) and reonciliation comes first, but I imagine the Diaz-Balarts and the Jesse Helmses putting pressure on the US government to intervene. Not good.

I believe that the the Soviet version of the slogan was "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." Clearly Russia has not yet recovered from a much longer experience of authoritarian socialism. What may be more relevant to the Cuban future is East Germany, which, despite huge infusions of money and subsidies from the West, still has a markedly different social ethos and lower productivity than the rest of that country. (and they are Germans!)

I believe the United States should declare its moderate indifference to the evolution of Cuba. We would be pleased to see them take some steps toward democracy and a market economy and stand ready to lift the embargo if they do this, but otherwise consider this a matter for the Cubans themselves to decide. If they permit another generation of authoritarian self-styled "socialists" to rule them and preserve their current servility and poverty, that is their choice - and their fate.

Unfortunately Bush has already released some statements aggressively promising U.S. aid in restoring democracy to Cuba. Probably this was done at the behest of the very well-organized political organizations of Cuban exiles & immigrants here, but it is a first step in the creation of some dangerous expectations and one that could be self-fulfilling. Cuba is a real tar baby (in the literary sense of that much-maligned phrase), and we should stay far from it.

Yes, that the correct translation of the saying I learned in Spanish.

"Tar Baby" means too much trouble to deal with, right?
Sorry, I don't know the story.

One more thing.

East Germans want to live like West Germans, and that's a high standard of living.
Cubans would like to have three meals a day, a color TV and no blackouts.

Your interpretation is correct. The reference comes from the stories of an American author, Joel Chandler Harris. They are told by the character of 'Uncle Rhemus', a wise old black man in the south, who used animal figures (in this case (b'r'er rabbit or brother rabbit) to relate Aesop-like stories embodying folk wisdom - some very clever and incisive. In the case at hand the tar baby was indeed sticky and, once he struck it, b'r'er rabbit couldn't extract himself.

As to the problem of exiles coming in to claim expropriated (nationalized) property after the fall of the Castro regime, there is precedent for this in East Europe after the fall of the Soviet empire. The three Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- established special commissions immediately after regaining independence, designed to handle all claims by exiles who has fled abroad during World War II or immediately following the war and the Soviet takeover of the previously independent countries. From all I hear, including a number of first person accounts, the majority of these claims have been settled satisfactorily without any rancor. Early planning is the secret.

A good precedent, as you say. However the Battic states were seized in 1939 by an external power - the Soviet Union, which claimed them back after the defeat of the Nazis, instituting yet another round of suppression of nationalistic sentiment and the people who dared to voice them. Cuba's oppression was at the hands of a native revolution. Moreover the exiles constitute disproportionally the land and business-owning segment of the population, while those left behind have been indoctrinated to despise the exiles as their former oppressors. For their part the exiles have cultivated a hatred for the socialist revolution for several decades.

I don't think the kind of unity of purpose that characterized the process in the Baltic states is likely to occur in Cuba,

georgeob1
georgeob1, you got it exactly right, which is why I think there will be trouble in sorting it out.

BBB

Well, Fidel seems partially recovered.

He had his picture taken with pal Hugo Chavez.
Fidel is wearing a red shirt, typical of Chavez. IMHO, it's a very important symbol. He's passing the banner of Leader of the Latin American Revolution to the Venezuelan.

The Cuban dictator had his hair dyed, and has evidently some make up to make his pale cheeks have some color. The eyes are telling. He's still sick.

Interesting observations, fbaezer. I believe you are correct.

This is a good time for our government to say and do very little.

Georgeob1


Unfortunately, George Bush is not know for keeping his mouth shut. He can't resist an opportunity to demostrate his intellect and his ability to articulate his ideas without a script.

BBB

Alas, yes, BBB. This Texan definitely suffers from foot-in-mouth disease.