The end of Cuban Fidel Castro's rule?

Castro handover sparks Cuban celebrations in Miami
Castro handover sparks Cuban celebrations in Miami
Tue Aug 1, 2006
By Jane Sutton
MIAMI (Reuters)

Cuban exiles streamed into the streets of Miami's Little Havana, dancing and cheering to celebrate news that Cuban President Fidel Castro had handed over power temporarily for the first time due to surgery.

Later on Tuesday the euphoria turned to nervous waiting for updates on the condition of Castro, viewed by many exiles as a brutal dictator whose demise could usher in a new democratic era for their homeland.

"We are seeing the end of this 50-year-old, almost 50-year-old, terrorist regime," U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a Miami Republican of Cuban descent, told Miami television station WSVN. "It could be hours, it could be days, it could be months, but it's on the way out."

Castro turned over power temporarily on Monday to his younger brother and designated successor Raul Castro after having surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding.

Diaz-Balart, whose family was once related to Castro by marriage, said the Cuban leader was essentially a one-man government and his brother Raul was unlikely to govern for long because: "He doesn't have the brain power that Fidel does."

U.S. and Florida officials have long anticipated that Castro's death could prompt a chaotic exodus as boaters to head to sea in mass numbers to visit or pick up relatives in their homeland.

The U.S. Coast Guard was carefully monitoring developments, Petty Officer Dana Warr said.

"We have contingency plans that are in place if anything would happen," Warr said, declining to elaborate.

Miami-Dade County opened its emergency operations center, but calm had returned to the Miami streets that erupted in jubilant celebration the night before.

AWASH IN FLAGS

Calle Ocho, the main street of the Spanish-speaking neighborhood in Miami that is the heart of Castro's exiled opposition, had been awash in Cuban flags and dancing people who had waited years, and in some cases decades, for Fidel Castro to cede power.

"I am elated but I am sad at the same time, because there are so many of us who could not be here to see this," said Ana Maria Lamar, referring to exiles who spent their lives fighting Castro and the thousands of Cuban rafters believed to have perished trying to flee the communist-ruled Caribbean island.

An estimated 650,000 people of Cuban descent make their homes in Miami, the Florida city remade by Cubans who left the island in waves following Castro's 1959 revolution.

Lamar, 62, said her late father fought at the Bay of Pigs in the 1961 U.S.-backed attempt to unseat Castro.

"He is celebrating in heaven," she said, tears in her eyes.

Cars streamed along Calle Ocho, drivers honking horns as passengers leaned out windows, waving flags. Young women in bikini tops popped up through the sunroofs of SUVs and couples danced on the beds of pickup trucks.

Police blocked off streets as a crowd of at least 500 people gathered outside the popular Little Havana eatery Versailles, where President Bush had breakfast on Monday when he denounced what he described as Castro's "tyrannical regime."

For some, the joy of contemplating the end of Castro's rule was tempered by fears a transition of power could be chaotic.

"It's going to be dangerous. There's going to be bloodshed," said Nelly Vazquez, 49, a Miami schoolteacher whose parents brought her to the United States when she was 3 years old. "That regime is evil. They murdered a lot of people."

(Additional reporting by Jim Loney in Miami)

Castro's Younger Brother More Radical
Castro's Younger Brother More Radical
Jul 31, 2006
By ANITA SNOW
Associated Press Writer

HAVANA Cuban Defense Minister Raul Castro is President Fidel Castro's staunchly loyal younger brother and his designated successor. At 75 and five years younger than Fidel, Raul is far less charismatic than his brother though far more radical.

Monday night, Fidel temporarily relinquished his presidential powers to Raul, telling Cubans in a letter read on television that he underwent surgery. The Cuban leader said he had suffered gastrointestinal bleeding, apparently due to stress from recent public appearances in Argentina and Cuba.

As first vice president of the Council of State, Cuba's supreme governing body, Raul is legally designated to assume his brother's role as president of the council in the event of "absence, illness or death."

Three weeks after taking power in January 1959, Castro named Raul his successor, telling supporters: "Behind me are others more radical than I."

He officially designated Raul as his successor at a Communist Party congress in October 1997, saying "Raul is younger than I, more energetic than I. He can count on much more time."

As head of Cuba's armed forces, Raul has been deeply involved in Cuba's military involvement in Angola and Ethiopia during the 1970s _ as well as with the military's successful peacetime efforts to help rescue Cuba's economy following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Although usually working behind the scenes, Raul briefly assumed a higher profile during the seven-month fight to return Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez to his homeland from Florida in 2000.

While Fidel headed up many of the mass protests in Havana, it was the mustachioed Raul, dressed in his olive green uniform and a full head shorter than his brother, leading tens of thousands of chanting, flag- waving citizens in the provinces.

In one rare interview in early 2001, Raul spoke with unusual frankness about his older brother's eventual death and encouraged the United States to make peace with Cuba while Fidel was still alive.

"I am among those who believe that it would be in imperialism's interest to try, with our irreconcilable differences, to normalize relations as much as possible during Fidel's life," Raul said in the interview with state television. Later, he said, "it will be more difficult," implying he would be harder to deal with.

Raul, a political hardliner, belonged to a Communist youth group even before the revolution. The elder Castro didn't publicly embrace socialism until 1961.

But on the economic front, he showed signs of flexibility.

As defense minister, Raul has overseen some of Cuba's most important experiments with limited market-style reforms. Military units produced and sold food at free markets and the military ran an important tourism company, Gaviota.

He also expressed interest in China's version of free-enterprise socialism during a November 1997 visit.

In 1962 he became deputy prime minister and in 1972 first deputy prime minister, behind Fidel.

Like his brother, Raul has been suspicious of the United States and at a September 1960 rally denounced the U.S. Embassy as "a cave of spies."

In a July 1962 visit to the Soviet Union, Raul was given a promise of Soviet missiles _ a development that led to the U.S.-Soviet missile crisis of October 1962 which brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Yet Raul made occasional conciliatory moves toward the United States. In 1964, he said he was willing to hold talks with the Americans "even on the moon."

I can't find a good Cuban cigar anywhere! Maybe the new regime will change all that!

BBB
Who the hell do we think we are? All this talk about the U.S. bringing democracy to Cuba is really pissing me off. It's up to the Cuban people to decide what type of government they want.

The U.S. senators who are mouthing off about helping to cause changes in Cuba's government are showing America's usual arrogance to think it has the right to control the form of governement in Cuba. Now, that's not democratic!

BBB

We need a regime change in the US if Cuban cigars are to be sold here!

Funny how very different U.S coverage is on this to what we're reading here.

Cuba ripe for economic change
Cuba ripe for economic change
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON - For most of the past 47 years, Fidel Castro's Cuba has largely been shut out of the global economy by his fervent opposition to capitalism and the U.S. trade embargo.

But now, with Castro surrendering power to his brother and facing an uncertain medical future, change for the first time in years seems likely. In a post-Castro world, Cuba could become a land of opportunity.

Cuba's gross domestic product - the value of its annual production of goods and services - is about $39 billion, according to the CIA. That's about the size of Kenya's, a tad larger than El Salvador's. Export commodities including sugar, nickel, tobacco, fish, citrus and coffee drive the Cuban economy, aided by tourism.

Planned and directed by the government for almost a half-century, Cuba's economy is largely isolated from market forces, and its industry and agriculture are notoriously inefficient. Yet against the odds, Cuba's pharmaceutical sector and its scientific research are on par with global leaders.

The island's 11.3 million inhabitants have an enormous pent-up consumer demand and a 97 percent literacy rate. That makes Cuba's workforce of 4.6 million presumably hungry to work and full of potential.

Post-Castro Cuba offers a promising export market for U.S. farmers and a potential investment venue for many U.S. companies.

"From the standpoint of a company looking to locate there, the prospects are quite good of having a well-educated, highly trainable workforce. That will not only result in more trade, but attract more investment," said C. Parr Rosson III, an agricultural economist and Cuba expert at Texas A&M University-College Station.

Rosson believes that Cuba will rapidly transition out of its current low-skill, labor-intensive sectors to light manufacturing and high-tech jobs. That would allow Cuba to be competitive in a number of sectors.

Evidence of that came in July 2004 when the U.S. Treasury Department allowed California-based CancerVax Corp. to enter a licensing agreement for three experimental anti-cancer drugs being developed by Cuba's Center for Molecular Immunology. It followed a 1999 move by the U.S. government to allow SmithKline Beecham to conduct clinical trials on a Cuban experimental vaccine for meningitis B.

If Cuban pharmaceuticals hold promise, U.S. farmers already see Cuba as an important new market. In January, for the first time ever, the entire board of directors of the U.S. Grains Council traveled to Havana. There, they inked a memo of understanding in which Cuba committed itself to purchase 700,000 metric tons of U.S. corn during the 2006/2007 growing season.

Cuba also committed to purchase an unspecified amount of distilled dry grains, a mash that's left over when corn is fermented and made into ethanol for fuel. The mash is used to feed swine, poultry, cattle, even fish like tilapia.

"When you have this proximity, it would just make sense that they are an important market to us, if things turn out that way" in post-Castro Cuba, said Cheri Johnson, spokeswoman for the grains council in Washington, D.C.

The Cuban purchase of U.S. corn is still a fraction of the 5.76 million metric tons imported by Mexico in the 2004/2005 season. But the average import tariff around the globe for farm products is 60 percent, and Cuba erects no such barrier to farm products it desperately needs. It's also becoming a promising market for U.S. exports of fresh meats, especially poultry.

New Orleans did more business with Cuba, primarily imports of Cuban sugar, than any other U.S. port before Castro seized power in 1959. Gary LeGrange, president and CEO of the Port of New Orleans, traveled there in 2004 to begin preparing for a post-Castro world.

"Without predicting when that may be, when it does happen we see a lot of possibilities and a lot of hope for the future," LeGrange said.

Cuba also offers potential in the energy sector. It has forged production-sharing agreements with Canadian and Spanish companies and is actively extracting offshore oil and natural gas about 90 miles from Florida.

The U.S. Geological Survey in 2004 confirmed the existence of large quantities of quality crude oil and natural gas in the North Cuba Basin just east of Havana. Energy companies from India, Norway, China, Spain and Canada are now involved in drilling for oil in Cuba's territorial waters.

The upper range of prospects suggests there may be 9.3 billion barrels of crude and 21.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas recoverable off the Cuban coast. That's three times the natural gas expected to be tapped from the Gulf of Mexico off the coastline of Florida and Alabama, as authorized this week by the U.S. Senate.

For all Cuba's potential, there's much unfinished business. Since Castro effectively nationalized the entire economy, the day Cuba rejoins the global economic order, an army of lawyers is sure to invade to fight over property ownership rights and trademarks for rum and cigars. Castro owes creditors about $14 billion.

"Do expect lawsuits," said Anthony Villamil, a former U.S. undersecretary of commerce.

For now, all eyes are on Cuba to gauge the gravity of Castro's illness and what might come next.

"There are probably more opinions on what is going to happen after Fidel dies than there are people in Cuba," cautioned Jerry Haar, a business professor at Florida International University in Miami.

As I recall, Clinton enjoyed Cuban cigars. Why was he never prosecuted for it?

If there ever were a victimless, smoking a Cuban cigar would be it!

Re: BBB


BBB, as you'd surely know, recently the US has liberated Afghanistan & Iraq & is achieving wonders through its support of Israel's quest of freeing Lebanon from terrorists & making Israel safe at last ..... & as any fool can see the march of peace, freedom & democracy, the US way, has done wonders for ordinary folk in those countries. So why should Cuba (& those other evil nations currently on notice) miss out? How very silly of you to ask such a thing!

I shudder to think our government would try to take forcible democratization to still more nations, since it hasn't worked any place they've tried, as yet.

I find it interesting that a thread titled "The end of Cuban Fidel Castro's rule?" becomes a discussion about US world involvement and the lack of quality cigars in the local market.

I was hoping for a discussion about Cuba's future, but forgot where I was.

OK, Let's try one. I suppose the first question is whether Raul Castro and the recently revitalized central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party will be able to hold things together in the event of Fidel's death. No doubt they are reasonably well-prepared for the eventuality, but I suspect public reactions in Cuba might be hard to predict, one way or the other.

There seems to be little doubt that Cuban expatriates in the U.S, (or at least some of them) will seek to find relatively easy ways to destabilize the regime. I doubt very much that the U.S. government would take any overt action or even permit independent action by expatriate organizations, based in the U.S. I suspect our policy will be to let the chips fall where they may. Very hard for the U.S. to come out ahead in any overt action. However if the regime falls on its own, that will be a significant victory for our point of view.

I don't have much confidence in any forecast I could make, but suspect the successor regime will limp along for a while and try to introduce some economic reforms. That may be an econiomic necessity, but it also entails the risk of the disruption that very often befalls an authoritarian government once the reins on private and public activities are loosened a bit.

An interesting twist could occur if Hugo Chavez of Venezuela offers or attempts to provide any security support for the regime. I don't think it likely, but if the attempt is made the U.S. would likely intervene to prevent it.

I don't really feel well enough informed to confidently comment about the possibilities for Cuba's future, fbaezer. Please do post any information that might broaden the discussion. I'd really like to know much more.

(BTW the post about possible US involvement was a response to BBB's post about US media commentary regarding Castro's illness/possible demise.)

No offense meant to anyone, I was just trying to get someone into the theme. Georgeob1 kindly did so.

I don't think it's easy to come with much more than speculation, but I can say a few things.

I. Cuba is following the unwritten Manual for the Succesion of a Dictator, which says: 1) do not inform anything solid about the dictator's health, 2) the dictator designs a provisional successor, 3) he orders all his subjects to recognize his heir as legitimate, 4) internal struggle is prohibited within the ruling and only legal party, 5) Operation "Everything Tied and Well Tied" is activated, 6) death disclosure comes only after the first 5 points are complied.

"Operation Everything Tied and Well Tied" is a term that comes from [Spanish Dictator] Francisco Franco's succesion.


II. Cubans in the island will feel like orphans. Free from a tyrant father (they respected and feared) and in the hands of a mean uncle (they despise and have never liked). No big movements are to be expected in the short run. Later yes, with a huge probability. Starting within the armed forces, is my guess.

III. The US government is being prudent so far. It means Rice is, for the time being, in control of the situation. The exile crazies are a menace for a democratic transition (nothing would be sweeter for the hard-liners than a new Bay-of-Pigs fiasco/ Playa-Girón victory).

IV. The future of post-Castro Cuba is certainly to be defined by the Cuban people.
One problem is that some consider -rightfully, IMHO- that exiled Cubans are also part of the Cuban people.
Another problem is triple: a) The Cuban exile is a diaspora in several countries, not strictly Florida; b) the Florida activists represent only the extremist views among the Cuban-American community; c) the exiles should realize they reppresent a minority of the Cuban people.

I agree easily as an ignorant person following over some time, with FB's I, II, and III. The IV is news to me, did I mention ignorance.
We don't know that (I) is true at this time, it's a routine, but maybe not this time. though it looks like this time is getting to be self fulfilling..

Let me just squeak an appeal for the people living there all this time having a voice. Some of them may have things for the rest of us to listen to.

I basically agree with everything fbaezer has said.

The major problem, in the event of Castro's demise, I think is the exiles, in particular the vocal ones in Florida. As fbaezer has rightly pointed out, any attempt at a Bay of Pigs type of invasion would be a public relations disaster, not only for the anti-Catro forces but for the US as well. The complicating factor is that these Cuban exiles are also (mostly) American citizens and, as such, represent a sizeable voting bloc in Florida. Any executive in charge in Washington is bound to take their views into consideration when dealing with Fidel's cuccessor.

If these exiles manage to instigate anything that looks like an internally managed revolt, which might lead to a civil war in Cuba, the US could well pull an invasion on the quite credible pretext of protecting its personnel and US interests at the Guantanamo Naval Base. That's a possibility I hate to even think about. We've made enough enemies in the Near East. No need to make more in Latin America.

There is another factor to consider here, namely the diverse impacts on different segments of the population associated with the fall of the old regime, and the degree to which the lingering effects of socialism continue to enervate the productivity of the population as a whole.

The fall of Soviet Socialism in central and eastern Europe left a generation of retirees and people over (say) 55 whose lives had been consumed by the fallen system and who had relatively little to gain (and sometimes much to lose) from the fall of the old order. At the same time younger people rejoiced in their newfound freedom. The population as a whole, however, to varying degrees, remained addicted to the economically enervating effects of socialism. The very generous German integration of the east is a case in point. The adverse economic aftereffects lingered for decades. if a generation of socialism can do that to Germans, one must contemplate seriously the likely effects on Cubans.

The brief opening of Cuba tourism industry may well be a harbinger of things to come. We may see something more like Soviet gangster capitalism than a transition to a real modern economy.

It will likely take Cuba a couple of generations to recover from the mess Castro has created. I don't wish to see the United States pay for any appreciable part of their recovery. On second thought luring Chavez in on a rescue mission for the "revolution" might be a good idea.