Asteroid IMPACT, a WHAT IF thread

a tree I would consider is the Pawlonia tree< I think its native to Asia. They grow about 20 feet a year , have a short life and provide good toxic filtration by their stoma . They also produce a very light but tough lumber and can be used for shade growing crops in the biodome.

Im still concerned that we havent figured out how to get rid of all the Sulfates and Nox and CO2. Im afraid we may have to consider engineered methods first because we may overwhelm the biological system Since there would be lots fewer people we could sequeter the CO2 and So4 and pump it into an estuary and let it precipitate or promote algae growth

OK, so eucalyptus trees are out (I hate cat's piss). I had my doubts about them since their leaves are inedible to most animals (I thought that might also be an advantage as in resistance to pests). I had intended them to be used much like they are used in the Sahel today. To quickly create forest cover, that other plants can use to grow under. In the Sahel it is an advantage that the leaves are not edible for cattle as it avoids the trees being used as cattle feed in years of drought. I read about the Pawlonia tree once, I believe it is grown all around the Pacific (must get seeds/saplings in time), so w'll use that one instead.

As I will mention in my enumeration of the stuff I intend/would like to carry along. I would go for Sterling power generators as first source of power. These engines run on heat differences, any heat differences, so they can be used in combination with a biogas/biomass burner, or liquid fuel, or solid fuel, or even with solar heat (theoretically also geothermal heat, as long as it is not too hot), e.g. one could put one end of the engine in a cold mountain stream and heat up the other end with mirrors and voilà. Sterling engines, if made of good quality materials require little maintenance, because they have very few moving parts and work with low gas pressures.
In second line I would consider wind turbines and small scale hydroelectric power. Perhaps even geothermal power if it presents itself in a manageable form.

Potatoes and tomatoes I had not considered in my list, but especially the hardy Andes races might work out well.
What about elephant grass (Miscanthus) as a weed to create anti-erosion ground cover very fast and to produce forage for the zoo (It can also be used as bio-fuel and as basis for paper and other fiber products). Disadvantage is that it is not so frost resistant.

I have seen algea used in waste water treatment in which they were very effective against NOx. I don't know about SOx, but there must be bacteria out there that can deal with it. Much of the NOx and SOx in the area around the impact site will come down as nitric and sulphuric acid (according to some online descriptions), there is little to be done against that, I guess.

I've done a bit of reading up on goats and alpacas. Seems like both have a lot going for them, so we might take both, they might get along
The only thing against alpaca is that they breed slower than goats and do not produce much milk. They are also much more expensive to purchase. The disadvantages of goats can be reduced by chosing the Nigerian Dwarf as race. It is a small dairy race that gives a lot of milk of good fat content (good for cheese making). Goats reproduce faster than alpacas and only the bucks stink (they must be kept separate from the herd). Goat meat (chevon) is tastier and healthier than mutton. I have never eaten alpaca, but there is a first time for everything. I will make a calculation of the feed required by different animals and if the balance is negative for cattle they have to go.

The Stuff
A serious attempt to have a hi-tech civilisation survive through a global catastrophe requires an enormous amount of resources. It is sometimes difficult for me to distinguish between wise to have and nice to have (because I also consider items in the light of their dramatic possibilities in the story line.

The land-based supply depots that I would create would contain more of the same that the ship carries (food, fuel and perhaps a water source, tools, power generator and communication equipment, construction supplies) so as to increase overall survival chances. These land bases must be well hidden from scavengers. We could have volunteers go underground with those stores so as to protect them (and to augment our crew when we collect the supplies).

So then a list of items and stuff that I would carry aboard the ship (in no particular order).
Food
• Highly nutricious, long-life food supplies (Vitaminised hard biscuits, Vitamin pills, Milk powder, Sugar, Tinned food, Pressed freeze-dried vegetables)
• Dried beans/soy/grain
• Vegetable oil
• Tons of fodder (like alfalfa) and cereals for animals
• A supply of good wines, cognac, whisky, etc. not so much for own consumption as for barter purposes
• A supply of tobacco products for the same purpose
• Coffee and tea
Water
• The ship woild need a large supply of fresh water as well as water desalinasation and purification equipment. In addition equipment to drill wells would be good to have (so as not to rely on polluted surface water).
Energy
• It all comes down to energy and I already described that my engine of choice would be the Sterling heat engine, which can run on any heat source. Sterling generators are highly efficient power generators especially if they can utilise excess/residual heat from other processes.
• A biomass/biogas installation would allow us to create energy from our biodegradable waste, reducing it to make it easier food for saprofites and other organisms, before it can finally be reused as fertiliser.
• We would carry a number of smaller wind turbines on the ship. Bigger ones can probably be organised once the colony is established.
• The ship would need a large bank of extra batteries to store excess power temporarily.
• An installation to turn biomass into raw alcohol for use in vehicles.
• We would always be on the lookout to orgnsie new supplies of fuel.
• We would take stringent measures to limit waste of energy.
Vehicles (preferably all powered by versatile Sterling engines when possible). Cars are so ubiquitous that they can probably be scounged anywhere.
• Several agricultural tractors
• Construction equipment (bulldozer, etc.)
• One or two armoured amphibious, all-terrain reconnaissance vehicles/APCs (e.g. BTR-60 or 70; these would be used for scavenging expeditions in areas where other survivors, friendliness unknown, might hang around)
• Cargo trucks
• Light transport aircraft (e.g. Antonov An-2 or An-3; cheap, rugged STOL)
• A float plane or flying boat (could also be AN-2)
• Several ultra light aircraft and/or powered gliders (Ultra-lights and gliders need only short runways and they use little fuel, gliders can linger long provided there is rising air)
• A helicopter on floats (helicopters are not energy efficient, but sometimes vertical take off and landing is the only way to get to places, especially in other infrastructure is destroyed).
• A Mil Mi-24 helicopter in Search and Resue version (heavily armoured fast helicopter, excellent for scouting out possible scavenging sites for trouble, with infra-red camera and winch for finding and picking up people from land or sea. It can carry 8 persons in addition to the 3-person crew)
• Several different boats (life boats, fishing boats, sailing boats)
• At least one landing craft big enough to land the biggest vehicle aboard
• A substantial number of bicycles
• Spare parts for most or all of the above vehicles
Tools, etc.
• An entire metal workshop
• Pumps, generators, compressors, spare parts
• All kinds of farm equipment
• A carpenter's shop
• Electrians tools and supplies
• Ample medical supplies
• An entire OR
• A battery of network servers and workstations with software and data (Wikipedia e.g.)
• Work clothing for all
• Tons of cement
• Cement mixer
• Explosives with related equipment
• An armoury with light arms and ammunition
• An extensive library of books, CDs and DVDs (to be extended whenever the opportunity arises)
• Plenty of communication equipment, radios and satellite phones

For all of the above equipment information must be kept of where more of it can be scavenged/spare parts can be found. For the most essential equipment replacements must be carried.
Not all of the supplies and equipment mentioned above needs necessarily be purchased. Some of the items can be organised shortly before or after the impact ("organising" is a nice word for "stealing").

Incidentally, I mention mainly old Russian vehicles, not because they are necessarily better than the Western counterparts, but because they are a lot cheaper and easier to obtain.

Again, you are invited to give your opinion on the (in)completeness of the list. But remember that we must remain within realistic boundaries; a portable nuclear reactor is not an option.

The Ark
Finally, to complete my presentation, there is the ship that should carry my crew of survivors for period of years while they sit out the worst effect of the asteroid impact and the ensuing volcanic winter. The ship must be big enough to accommodate, the crew, the zoo, the jungle and the supplies mentioned earlier. Last but not least it must be obtainable in a realistic way (A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier can serve as an ark, but it is a little hard to come by!)

I had my eyes set on one of the big Baltic ferries between Sweden and Finland for the following reasons:
• The ship is relatively new and well maintained
• Security equipment is very good
• The ship is very seaworthy but can still operate in shallow waters
• The ship is sufficiently large (space for 2000 to 3000 passengers)
• The ship is sufficiently long for a flight deck and a helipad with hangar to be constructed on top
• The ship is able to sail in ice covered seas
• The ship is well insulated against cold conditions and has a good heating system
• The ship has two large car decks that can be used to house supplies, vehicles and the zoo (Cruise ships normally do not have such large open spaces)
• The ship has lots of cabins that can be used as storage rooms
• The ship has several indoor swimming pools that can be used to keep fish and other aquatic life forms
• The ship has a glass covered deck promenade that could be turned into a greenhouse for a part of the jungle
• The ship has a sick bay and amenities like fitness room, cinema, hair salon, etc.
• The ship can be equipped with guns for self defence.

What the ship does not have:
• Because of the short distances travelled, the capacity of the fuel tanks is not as big as in ocean going liners.
• The same goes for the water tanks.
• Thus the ship needs to be converted to carry more of both, but even better would be if it could sail accompanied by a (super) tanker with fuel, water and other supplies.
• The ship would need a ramp that can be lowered to water level in order to launch vehicles from the lower car deck
• The ship would need a powerful crane to pick up things from the water or vice versa to launch vehicles.

We can assume that with an asteroid approaching traffic will be low, and it might be possible to lease the ship from the ferry company for a private cruise.

I would be interested to know if you have any realistic points of view on the choice of ship and how it all could be organised.

I guess I didnt understand the reason for a ship . Is it to just serve as a ferry to get to a good point of disembarking and starting over? or is it an actual "Ark"

Is the Sterling engine proven technology. Lots of problems in high tech solutions occur if something doesnt have an ability to be re-engineered or fixed in the process. In WWII Germany had the finest tanks for specific uses, all of which were overcome and sidestepped quickly by the allies. Adding to the list was a penchant for lousy fuel ecomnomy and breakdowns due to "overengineering" The US and British ahd a bunch of rather feeble tanks but in overwhelming numbers and they were interchangeable..
I see that high tech needs will be developed in response during the centuries of toxic environment..
I like the use of old Russian equipment because that stuff has been fixed up and made to run by housewives.

GEothermal is always good.

Id say we should consider a final docking place to set up the "New World"

Thanks for your comments! The ship is meant to be an ark for a numer of years, since mobility of the base enables it to escape from dangerous areas and allows the crew to consider diffeent places to establish the colony. In my story it is meant to serve as an ark for a number of years (until the worst efects of the impact have worn off)

The Sterling engine was designed way back in the 19th century as a safer alternative to steam engines. It is a heat engine that relies on external heat (can be external combustion, but also other heat sources). It is a very reliable engine. Its disadvantages (why it never became a success in cars etc. is that id is raher bulky in relation to the power it produces, its needs to be heated up before it starts and it cannot change output quickly. While pertol was very cheap internal combustion engine were therefore more efficient in cars and other applications (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterling_engine). The quality of a Sterling engine stands and falls with the materials it has been built of. It has few moving parts, less vibrations (silent) and lower cylinder pressure than an internal combustion engine and it is therefore much sturdier and requires less maintenance.

The technology of many Russian products is crude compared to contemporary Western products, but simple things are usually easier to maintain and repair. The main reason that I mention Russian vehicles is that you can buy them on the Net for pez (I don't see any second hand Apache helicopters for sale on the Net).

Geothermal power is great so long as it doesn't get out of hand, since it always implies volcanic activity near the surface. It could however help greatly. In Iceland they grow (or grew) their own bananas in greenhouses heated with cheap geothermal power).

The best place to set up the new colony is open to discussion. I myself have a preference for a remote island since it is easier to defend from other survivors, especially if they do not possess ships (I have a twist up my sleeve to enure that the number of craft is significantly reduced even in the Atlantic). The island should be big enough and have relief enough and be fertile enough to allow for the eventual cultivation of many different crops. Relief will also imply fresh water sources and thus hydro-electric power. In addition it means that the island will not become uninhabitable in case of a rise in sea water levels. Personally I consider Madeira a good candidate, but I do not know how seismically/volcanically active the archipelago is.

Question: What would you consider as good alternative locations for the colony, i.e. places that would be reasonably safe from other desperate survivors, that are not on top of an active volcano or fault line, that are not in the north (considering the volcanic winter and the possible onset of an ice age) and that are big enough to support a colony of hundreds (later many housands) of persons?

I had another thought regarding immediate consequences of the impact: wildfires started by ejecta.

Thanks for the suggestion, the wild fires were incalculated, but it gave me an idea that secondary meteor strikes could be part of the story (large chunks propelled into low orbit by the explosion and coming down later). Even a relatively small chunk can cause an explosion stronger than a Hiroshima bomb. I could keep that twist in my pocket in case I need a deus ex machina at any point in the story

By the way, I apologise for all the typos in my previous entries. I did not take the time to proofread.

Islands are temporary landmasses. However, if were dealing with a priod of re-establishing civilization for up to 100K years, maybe Id choose Hawaii since these are deep ocean ophiolitic rocks and the big Island will be there for a few million years.
Id stay in low temperate or Med zones since we will have an ice age in the next 50000 years. If the mid latitude gyres get modified by influxes of meltwater freom the polar ice cap, we have the potential start of another cooling cycle in the high latitudes.

The entire concept reminds me of an old Scie Fi book called the "Moat of the Gods"

Hi Farmerman, In my story the asteroid lands in the Pacific, so Hawai, if it survives, will be uninhabitable for a long time. I do subscribe to the idea that islands like Hawai would be suitable since they have passed over the volcanic hotspot that created them, so an eruption on the island itself is unlikely.
I chose Madeira because of its sweet location, and because I have never read about any volcanic activity on the island (although it is of volcanic origin). I do not intend the story to cover hundreds of thousands of years, so if the island will hold out for a few centuries, that will do fine

I cannot find any hits for "Moat of the Gods", would you have the name of the author?

It is interesting, upon reading different articles about asteroid impacts, how little concurrence there is is the actual effects of a large bolide impact. I found an interesting site (http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/) that allows you to calculate some of the physical effects of an impact, as experienced at a given distance from the impact point. It does not mention tsunamis, firestorms, acid rain, volcanic winter/greenhouse effect or upheavals at the opposite end of the earth.
Well, I guess it leaves room for my imagination :wink:

I found another useful link describing the (possible) effects of a deep bolide impact http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/TA.pdf

I might use it to base my story on (but haven't finished reading it yet).

Depending on how large the asteroid is, the major western governments have deep bunkers to hide in as they were built to survive nuclear war. Depending how large the tidal waves will be, I would assume 1000 - 3000 feet-high waves travelling at 500 mph (the same as the Boxing Day 2004/5 ones), even continental plains could be affected as they spread over the coasts. The cause is the displacement and impact from the asteroid travelling at 100,000 mph or so. The kinetic energy would send a lot of water into the stratosphere and an initial tidal wave. Then there will be another as the asteroid sinks deep into the ocean floor sending shock waves thru the earth. The water filling into the gaping hole will creating more tsunamis. Of course, scientists have done simulations showing high-temperature heat waves, melting rocks and shock waves thru the atmosphere, and hot gases and hot lava-like ejecta and steam. Buildings would collapse or topple over and depending on how much time people have to prepare many will seek underground shelter. Many northern cities have underground malls. Amazingly, there will be survivors in even the most horrendous situations.

To my knowledge Sweden was the only country that (at least theoretically) had bomb shelter capacity for its entire population two decades ago (since then the need for shelters has seemed less urgent).

There will be plenty of initial survivors to the asteroid impact and its immediate effects, but it is the long term effects that will exact their toll of the human population. However, the challenge in my scenario is not the survival of the human race, but the survival of a hi-tech civilisation.

It seems, from what I have read, that the bolide impact in itself does not cause an extinction event, although it causes utter and total destruction around the impact site. The real killer is the way the earth reacts to the impact. If the latter causes large ruptures in the earth's surface through which gas-rich magma can come to the surface in sufficient quantities (we are talking about hundreds of cubic kilometres here), this will release noxious gasses that will poison the atmosphere, reduce sunlight and absorb oxygen over a long period of time.
The flood basalt eruptions of the Deccan Traps mentioned by Farmerman are believed by some scientists to have been the result of the KT-impact (the dinosaur killer).

If my story is to be realistic, the asteroid impact must be powerful enough to cause widespread destruction and disruption, but just not powerful enough to rupture the earth's crust on the other side of the globe.

India was farther south in the Indian Ocean then. The KT Impact was by the Gulf of Mexico. The Americas were closer to Europe based on a roughly 2-6 inches per year migration from tectonic plate movements. India doesn't seem to be at the polar opposite of the KT Impact 65 million years ago. Of course, lava eruption might not be linear as the internals of the earth is a mystery. There could have been a soft route inside and the lava could have taken the circuitous route and exited in the Deccan Plateaus. It seems tsunamis were not taken into account for their destructiveness. Seeing those Boxing Day tsunamis in Thailand brought in new respect for them as they are pressure waves not wind driven. The oceans are at most only 10 miles deep (deepest ravine being 30,000 ft. same as Mt. Everest's height, 5000 ft. roughly equal to 1 mile). The KT Asteroid must have been 10 miles in diameter at least. The tsunamis could even be several miles high and large quantities of water pushed out of the oceans skyward. The water must have come down as huge deluges. The impact must have ruptured the crust. If the carnivores were not all killed at least the plant-eating dinosaurs were as they are slow and lumbering. With no food the carnivores like the T-Rex would also peter out.

There is an iron core at the center of the earth so the magma would be diverted so it is conceivable that lava shot up thru the Deccan Plateaux.

When considering vulcanism and impacts in time, we must remember that the , then, coordinates of the landmasses involved were much different . The Deccan basalts were actually a rift zone between India and Africa as India began splitting away. At that time the major continental groups were still mostly bunched up asPangea. Thats why the Deccan basalts have lots more in common with Madagascar (the Mascarine ridge) than with Asia..

Are we all ready for the big one?

According to Wikipedia, Switzerland is the country with the highest number of nuclear shelters per head of the population. Finland is mentioned as a good second (It is true that all larger buildings like schools, shopping malls and appartment complexes have bunkers underneath them, but they vary rather a lot in quality. Those shelters are built for survival during days and weeks, not months, let alone years (Unless you would lock yourself with a very small number of people in a very big shelter. I once visited the bunker of the provincial government of Lapland in Rovaniemi. It is built deep into the granite rock, protected by two huge blast doors on a 90 degree angle, air and water filtering, etc. It has room for hundreds of people. If you lock yourself in there with only a handful, you could survive for years.)

And yes, I am ready to start with my story. Remaining details I will pick up while I'm going. My present problem (if you can call it that) is that a truly massive impact (including large scale rupture of the earth's crust) has such a low survivability ratio that my scenario becomes unrealistic. A smaller impact, would leave so much of the world "intact" that I need some secondary disasters to knock out the remaining strongholds of civilisation , so as to make the scenario work (An "accidental" launch of some nuclear missiles producing EMP over large areas comes to mind, but my main secondary weapons of mass extermination will be the volcanic winter and the resulting, hunger, conflict and disease.

Madeira is intended to be my final port of call. It is like Hawaii an island of volcanic origin, large and fertile enough to support the colony, with mountains that provide rain for water supply and hydro-electric power. Like the smaller islands of the Hawaii archipelago, Madeira has passed over the hot spot that created it, making it a relatively safe place to be (last eruption is estimated between 400 000 and 1 500 000 years ago). I have not read about any geothermal activity on the island.

Other elements in the story that I need to solve are of a less scientific (and more bureaucratic) nature. For example, how can one plunder the orphanages of the Pacific without arousing suspicion as to one's motives (being arrested in, say Fiji, as an alleged pedophile and held in jail while the asteroid is coming down overhead, would drastically reduce the survival chances of my protagonist ). How would I manage to get a Russian (converted) attack helicopter to my boat without any officials asking annoying questions? And more of those mundane little problems. I guess I can explain away a lot with: "money talks".

Why are we plundering orphanages again?
A big attack helicopter is merely a platform to carry weapons(not a lot of actual inside room). Why not a heavy-lift helicopter?