gungasnake wrote:
In probability theory, to compute the probability of two things happening at once, you multiply the probabilities together. That says that the likelihood of all these things ever happening, best case, is ten or twelve such infinitessimals multiplied together, i.e. a tenth or twelth-order infinitessimal. The whole history of the universe isn't long enough for that to happen once.
.
It looks like your understanding of probability is about as good as your understanding of evolution..
If you only use the time then you can't get to the numbers needed. One small problem with only using the time is it ignores the number of REAL possibilities for evolution. it is estimated that there are 30-50 million species on the earth today. There are 6 billion people, many times that for smaller organisms, fewer for some complex organisms.
For the sake of argument lets assume each species has 1 billion new members each year and 30 million species and the earth has had life for 3 billion years.
So.. lets look at that from a probability standpoint using just those numbers. You have had 90,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (9x10 to the 32nd)
Then lets use the simple bacteria found in a single person.
A person has 390,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (3.9x10 to the 23rd, again larger than your claim of what is needed)single celled bacteria in them. There are 6 billion people on the earth. A single bacterium can replicate itself 1 million times in 12 hours. That means that in humans alone there are probably.
234,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 opportunities every 12 hours just in bacteria found in humans for there to be evolution. (if we use your 12 infintesimals to achieve an evolutionary change that means there are 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 evolutions of bacterium every 12 hours in humans alone.)
now multiply that times the number of 12 hour periods in 3 billion years. Then multiply it times the number of other complex creatures that would contain bacteria. Then add in the number found outside complex creatures. In no time at all you are talking about 10 to the millions. A number well beyond your 12 infintesimals to the 12 infintesimal.
Based on the numbers Gunga, it is not only likely that evolution would occur in that number of new organisms, it is highly unlikely that it would not have occurred. Your simplistic use of only the time frame completely disregards the astronomical numbers available in evolution.