Determinism and the Future

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Let us assume, just for this thread, that determinism is true. If you believe in free will, or whatever, that isn't relevant to this thread.

Let us jsut assume that all events are caused by a deterministic chain of events. So in theory, we should be able to predict the state of the world tomorrow based on the state of the world today. Does this mean that it is already true that, for example, George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow? Say we are able to review every aspect of the state of the universe today, and we discover that it is determined that George Bush will break his shin tomorrow - does that mean that it is true now that Bush will break his shin tomorrow, or is that event not really true or existent until it actually happens?

The reason I am asking this is that I believe in determinism, but I don't want to believe that the future is mapped out, because then I would have to accept the Eternalist theory of time (I think). I'm doing an essay on time, y'see, so any thoughts would be helpful.

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Re: Determinism and the Future

agrote wrote:

Say we are able to review every aspect of the state of the universe today, and we discover that it is determined that George Bush will break his shin tomorrow - does that mean that it is true now that Bush will break his shin tomorrow, or is that event not really true or existent until it actually happens?

I don't know that determinism concerns itself with this sort of thing, at least it doesn't in my interpretation. I see determinism as positing something more like, "Christianity is prevalent becuase the conditions are ripe for its prevalence"; or that "Great philosophers emerge in times when their age calls for them."

Specifics like "I will have a headache tomorrow based on all available data" seems a little science-fictionish, for want of a better term.

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Re: Determinism and the Future

Nietzsche wrote:

Specifics like "I will have a headache tomorrow based on all available data" seems a little science-fictionish, for want of a better term.

Isn't that kind of determinism a plausible theory? Events are caused by previous events - e.g. my keyboard breaks because I smash it with my fist. The event of my smashing it is also caused by some earlier event - my anger, which might be caused by chemicals in my brain, and so on. All events are caused by a deterministic chain of events, so it is in theory possible to predict future events based on present and past events. why does that sound science-fictionish to you?

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If determinism were true, then yes, an event would be true even before it happens and the future would be mapped out and unchangeable.

But the universe is NOT deterministic, thanks to chaotic systems and quantum uncertainty. Free will exists because the outcome of some mental events cannot be exactly determined by input parameters, and it only takes one decision in opposition to the pre-determined one to change the future completely.

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agrote, if you have foreknowledge of an event, then your statement about the event taking place is true. here's a simple example. suppose you call heads before tossing a coin. after the coin lands, your call will be true or false, but before the toss, it's merely possibly true or false. on the other hand, if you use a trick coin with two heads, then your call is true before you toss it.

this seems to be a topic in a branch of logic called modal logic, by the way, which i unfortunately didn't have an opportunity to study. if you know a logician, you might ask him or her your question to get an expert opinion.

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Re: Determinism and the Future

agrote wrote:

Let us jsut assume that all events are caused by a deterministic chain of events. So in theory, we should be able to predict the state of the world tomorrow based on the state of the world today. Does this mean that it is already true that, for example, George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow?

Yes, of course it does.

agrote wrote:

Say we are able to review every aspect of the state of the universe today, and we discover that it is determined that George Bush will break his shin tomorrow - does that mean that it is true now that Bush will break his shin tomorrow, or is that event not really true or existent until it actually happens?

Under those circumstances, the statement "Bush will break his shin" would be a true statement. It would not be true, however, that Bush had already broken his shin at the time the statement is made, since that event still lies in the future.

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Terry wrote:

But the universe is NOT deterministic, thanks to chaotic systems and quantum uncertainty. Free will exists because the outcome of some mental events cannot be exactly determined by input parameters, and it only takes one decision in opposition to the pre-determined one to change the future completely.

You cannot disprove determinism through any kind of inductive chain of reasoning.

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Re: Determinism and the Future

agrote wrote:

Let us jsut assume that all events are caused by a deterministic chain of events. So in theory, we should be able to predict the state of the world tomorrow based on the state of the world today. Does this mean that it is already true that, for example, George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow? Say we are able to review every aspect of the state of the universe today, and we discover that it is determined that George Bush will break his shin tomorrow - does that mean that it is true now that Bush will break his shin tomorrow, or is that event not really true or existent until it actually happens?

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Re: Determinism and the Future

agrote wrote:

Let us assume, just for this thread, that determinism is true. If you believe in free will, or whatever, that isn't relevant to this thread.

Let us jsut assume that all events are caused by a deterministic chain of events. So in theory, we should be able to predict the state of the world tomorrow based on the state of the world today. Does this mean that it is already true that, for example, George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow? Say we are able to review every aspect of the state of the universe today, and we discover that it is determined that George Bush will break his shin tomorrow - does that mean that it is true now that Bush will break his shin tomorrow, or is that event not really true or existent until it actually happens?

The reason I am asking this is that I believe in determinism, but I don't want to believe that the future is mapped out, because then I would have to accept the Eternalist theory of time (I think). I'm doing an essay on time, y'see, so any thoughts would be helpful.

V writes;

I think most persons fail in this debate cause they are the 'all or none' variety - all determinist or all free will. My view is this. We have some deterministic characteristics as well as some free will characteristics. Where the dividing line is located, is different for each of us.

V (Male)

A Christian-Buddhist practitioner living a life of Voluntary Simplicity and grateful recovering Debtor, Drug, Alcohol and Substance Abuser, Compulsive Overeater, Clutterer, Hoarder, Rageaholic, Speculative Gambler, Compulsive Spender, Sex and Sensation Addict.

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Re: Determinism and the Future

joefromchicago wrote:

agrote wrote:
Let us jsut assume that all events are caused by a deterministic chain of events. So in theory, we should be able to predict the state of the world tomorrow based on the state of the world today. Does this mean that it is already true that, for example, George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow?

Yes, of course it does.

How come?

twyvel wrote:

In a (absolute) deterministic universe no predictions can be made that are not determined. There are no guesses that are not determined, hence all guesses are pseudo guesses. There is no knowledge.

That's an interesting way of looking at it, I never thought of that before. I'm not sure that's what I believe, so perhaps I don't really believe in determinism after all.

vfr wrote:

I think most persons fail in this debate cause they are the 'all or none' variety - all determinist or all free will. My view is this. We have some deterministic characteristics as well as some free will characteristics. Where the dividing line is located, is different for each of us.

This thread isn't abotu the freedom/determinism debate, that's a separate issue.

Assuming that the universe is completely deterministic, can statements about the future be true or false? <-- that's the topic of this thread. Re-read my first post if I'm being too vague here.

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Just to reiterate, I'm wondering whether we should accept bivalence for statements about the future. Bivalence (I think) is the principle that all propositions are either true or false. Does this really apply to propositions about the future?

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Re: Determinism and the Future

agrote wrote:

How come?

In a deterministic world, where we can predict everything with complete certitude, the statement "George Bush will fall over and break his shin tomorrow" would be true now because it is a statement about the future that is absolutely accurate.

agrote wrote:

Just to reiterate, I'm wondering whether we should accept bivalence for statements about the future. Bivalence (I think) is the principle that all propositions are either true or false. Does this really apply to propositions about the future?

Bivalence is not that all statements are either true or false. The opposite (or, more accurately speaking, the contradictory) of "true" isn't "false." The opposite of "true" is "not true."

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agrote

I know you are specifically interested in discussing determinism and not free will, but have you considered that they may not be in opposition to each other. No one can seem to explain either, completely. I wonder if that is because in looking at one while ignoring the other, we only ever see half of what it is.

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echi wrote:

agrote

I know you are specifically interested in discussing determinism and not free will, but have you considered that they may not be in opposition to each other. No one can seem to explain either, completely. I wonder if that is because in looking at one while ignoring the other, we only ever see half of what it is.

Yes I have considered that possibility, but again that's just not relevent to the question I was asking. I wanted to know whether, assuming determinism is true and free will is false, sentences about the future can have a truth-value.

I agree that some sort of compatiblist theory, like what you have hinted at, may be true instead of pure determinism, but that has no bearing on the question I was asking, which assumes that pure determinism is true.

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Statements about the future can be considered true if:
a) the assumption of a deterministic universe is absolutely true and
b) all needed knowledge about the present state of the universe is known and used accurately in accordance with the laws of the universe.

The definition of determinism requires it to be so. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinism)

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I think the world is deterministic, but that still doesn't give us the means to know the future. One can never know the exact state of anything, let alone the entire cosmos. Isn't there something called the Uncertainty Principle?

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Echi, you bring up a good point. The Uncertainty Principle would make determinism seem incorrect. My answer assumes determinism to be true because that is what the original post assumes. (I'm not sure if Deter. is true in reality)

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No, I don't think it makes determinism incorrect, at all. We are simply not outside of it. We are all right in the middle.

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if the future state of a particle has real uncertainty (not just a measurement uncertainty) then absolute causality would seem to be impossible as different outcomes are possible. This would make determinism impossible.

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The state of things, I believe, is certain. Only one "outcome" is possible. What is uncertain (incomplete) is our knowledge. We affect what we observe (and vice versa). The cosmos is deterministic, but we cannot see the complete picture because every part of what we are is part of that picture. Maybe that has something to do with our experience of free will. I don't know.

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Determinism and the Future

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