West turns a blind eye as activists crushed before Azerbaijan poll
By Andrew Osborn in Baku
Published: 05 November 2005
Briefly the democracy activists of Azerbaijan had dared to dream of an "Orange revolution", but the oil-rich former Soviet republic will contest what were supposed to be the country's first democratic elections tomorrow in an atmosphere of fear.
The two-month election campaign has seen some of the opposition's most idealistic young campaigners jailed, brutally beaten by police, threatened with torture, cleverly framed and discredited and effectively neutralised as a political force.
Defiant to the last, they insist they are still on course to capture more votes than the government, but their hopes of replicating the success of campaigners in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan who toppled corruption-sodden Soviet-era regimes look slim.
The run-up to tomorrow's parliamentary elections was neither free nor fair, and there are serious international concerns about the equity of voting itself. But even if there is a row over falsified elections the democracy activists look ill-equipped to convert any popular discontent into regime change.
The millionaire Aliyev family dynasty, which has ruled the country with an iron fist for most of the past three decades and has multi-million pound property interests in London, has simply proved too clever and too willing to use force and intimidation.
Ilham Aliyev, the country's 40-year-old President, took over the mantle of his father, Heidar, in 2003 and has crafted a public image of himself and his regime as a permanent feature of Azeri life. He enjoys good relations with Washington and London, which have major interests in Azerbaijan's new oil pipeline, wields complete control over the broadcast media and has thousands of fiercely loyal riot police at his disposal.
The Aliyev mark is stamped all over Baku. Statues and billboards featuring the avuncular features and musings of the late Heidar Aliyev, who died in 2003, are everywhere. The cult of personality affords little room for alternative voices.
The Yeni Fikir (New Thinking) pro-democracy youth movement knows all about the regime's dislike of opposition. Set up last year, it was supposed to be the spearhead of the Orange movement and was the first opposition grouping to make orange, the colour of Ukraine's successful revolution, its own.
Crafted in the image of similar youth groups in the former Yugoslavia, Georgia and Ukraine, it began to hold noisy rallies. However, today it looks a spent force.
In August its leader, Ruslan Bashirli, 26, was arrested at his home by men in black masks. He was accused of trying to forcefully overthrow the government and of plotting dissent with security service agents from Armenia, Azerbaijan's sworn enemy.
The authorities claimed that the Armenian agents had suggested using live gunfire during an opposition rally in order to destabilise the country. America's National Democratic Institute, a non-profit organisation closely aligned to the US Democratic Party, was also accused of complicity in the plot.
Secret footage of Bashirli's "traitorous meeting" was broadcast on giant public screens in Baku and the young activist was thrown into jail for three months, a stretch that has since been extended to five. His fellow activists say he was framed.
Other activists have fared little better. Said Nuriyev, another leading light in Yeni Fikir, was arrested soon after Bashirli and is now under house arrest in a Baku hospital where he is recovering from a long-standing blood disorder.
Attempts to visit him - even by some of his own close family members - have been refused and when his fellow activists tried to see him they were barred from the hospital grounds and beaten by more than 100 baton-wielding policemen.
The movement's third big hitter, Ramin Tagiev, 26, has also been arrested and has similarly been accused of fomenting violent change. He has been given a three- month prison sentence and his friends and family have found it almost impossible to get news of his well-being.
Attempts to discredit Yeni Fikir did not end there. On one occasion activists returned to their campaign office to discover a white carrier bag containing four hand grenades and some TNT explosive.
Ahmad Shahidov, an activist who has not yet been locked up, says he believes it was another attempt to discredit his organisation. "The President was due to make a visit right across the street on the same day. We think they wanted to accuse us of wanting to kill the President."
With local and foreign media looking on, the activists eventually got the police to take the explosives off their hands.
Human Rights Watch says another activist, Sarvan Sarhanov, was detained by the police for six hours during which time they urged him to go on television to make a statement denouncing the movement. They brought a pair of pliers into the interrogation room and threatened to use them on his hands, but he did not comply and was eventually freed.
"These guys were just young people who had had enough of living in a country where everything in their lives was controlled by one family," Murad Gassanly, an activist for the opposition Freedom Bloc told The Independent.
"What happened to them shows what you get here if you become politically active. Anything against the regime carries serious repercussions."
The mainstream opposition has not been allowed to hold rallies in central Baku, or to put up its posters in many areas. It has been starved of all important air time and many of its rallies have ended with demonstrators being rushed to hospital after police beatings.
The opposition estimates that 1,500 activists have been detained since 5 September, 2,000 injured, 400 arrested and held for over a month, and 200 sentenced. Thirty prospective parliamentary candidates have also detained or beaten up.
Mr Aliyev has dismissed opposition criticism out of hand. He says that tomorrow's elections will be free and fair and that there is no need for a velvet revolution.
Last-minute concessions such as marking voters' hands with invisible ink and allowing exit polls mean, he insists, that the elections will be the country's freest yet.
America is watching closely and while Washington concedes that things could be better, the consensus seems to be that Mr Aliyev, the custodian of the Caspian Sea's oil riches, is a man they can do business with. Azerbaijan's border with Iran means, analysts say, that for America, stability is paramount.
History of a dynasty
* 1993: Heydar Aliyev declares himself President.
* 1994: Three members of special police force arrested after assassinations of deputy head of parliament and Aliyev's security chief. Later in the year, Azerbaijan signs contract with oil companies for use of three oil fields.
* 1995: Aliyev's New Azerbaijan Party wins election alleged to contravene international standards.
* 1998: Opposition activists arrested at protests against elections.
* 2001: Azerbaijan becomes full member of Council of Europe.
* 2002: Work starts on pipeline to carry oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey.
* 2003: Aliyev appoints son Ilham as Prime Minister. Three people killed in opposition demonstrations. In December, Aliyev dies in US hospital, aged 80.
* 2005: Oil starts flowing through pipeline. Police use force to break up opposition demonstrations in Baku before elections.
US Ambassador: Hopes For Pluralistic Azerbaijan Election [/b]
Copyright © 2005, Dow Jones Newswires
BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP)--The U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan expressed hope Friday for a pluralistic parliamentary election in the oil-rich country, which would push the government to discuss policies rather than listen solely to the president.
Ambassador Reno Harnish said that there had never been a democratic election in Azerbaijan, a key U.S. ally that abuts Russia and Iran. But he said that despite lingering concerns about whether Sunday's parliamentary vote would meet international standards, it could bring new voices into play.
"It's going to be a step toward 'we decide' instead of 'they decide,'" Harnish said in an interview with The Associated Press.
"In a very practical sense, a pluralistic election will provide a counterweight in a society that has its own momentum for taking on issues like corruption, taking on issues like how do we spend the oil wealth."
He said the U.S. government remained concerned about the ability of state officials such as regional governors, police officers and teachers to pressure voters, and about the possibility of violence over the coming days.
But he said that Azerbaijan had seen some "astounding" progress toward free elections over the past eight months, including the government's agreement allow exit polls - one of which has been contracted by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
The U.S., European Union and an array of other foreign governments and organizations have engaged in intensive work with the government over the past eight months to push through reforms laying the way for fair elections, Harnish said.
He denied the allegation by some rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, that the U.S. has sent mixed messages.
"We believe that the U.S. is not going to be able to cash in on the security relationship, we're not going to really be able to get the fullest advantage of our energy and economic goals unless there are also important steps on political and economic reform," Harnish said.
He said that the U.S. had expressed concern over the recent arrests of 12 men including former high-ranking officials in an alleged coup plot, which Aliev has connected with a top opposition leader living in exile in the U.S. for the past decade. That leader, Rasul Guliyev, is running in Sunday's election but has not been able to return to Azerbaijan, where he faces jailing on long-standing embezzlement charges.
In addition to trying to gain access to the imprisoned suspects, Harnish said, the U.S. has cast doubt on the legality of airing some of the suspects' interrogation over state television, which could prejudice subsequent court proceedings. The Azerbaijani government has not responded to the U.S. concerns, he said.
Election-fraud fears loom in Azerbaijan
By Steve Hirsch
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published November 5, 2005
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BAKU, Azerbaijan -- Opposition leaders and civil liberties groups are painting a grim picture of the political situation in this oil-rich Caspian capital ahead of tomorrow's critical parliamentary elections.
Azerbaijan is a country of widespread corruption with a history of questionable elections, where political opposition figures fear beatings and arrest.
As a largely Muslim country that boasts strong strategic ties with the United States, Azerbaijan has become the latest test case for President Bush's policy of promoting democratic change across the region.
Azerbaijan is one of the few Muslim-majority countries contributing forces to the U.S.-led mission in Iraq, and it is strategically located on the border with both Russia and Iran.
A parade of U.S. officials -- including Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard G. Lugar and former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright -- have passed through Baku in recent months, pressing the government on the need for clean elections.
The government of President Ilham Aliyev insists the vote will be fair, noting a series of reforms that have been adopted since May. Late last month, Mr. Aliyev, who succeeded his late father in a vote criticized abroad in 2003, took new steps to prevent fraudulent votes and to allow foreign-funded groups to monitor tomorrow's vote.
"We know we are under the microscope," said Hafiz Pashayev, Azerbaijan's long-serving ambassador to Washington.
Mr. Bush, in a recent letter to Mr. Aliyev, praised the government's "commitment to a free and fair election."
"I look forward to working with you after these elections," Mr. Bush wrote.
But the view of the election from the opposition, as well as from leading human rights groups, has been much more negative.
Opposition figures warn that another round of fraudulent elections could push Azerbaijanis away from Western democracy toward Islamic nationalism, a view shared by many outside observers.
Azerbaijan's authoritarian system has spawned unemployment, poverty and abuse of power, Azerbaijan Popular Front Party Deputy Chairman Fuad Mustafayev said, problems that cannot be addressed without fair elections.
He cited the authorities' continuing control over election commissions and voter lists. He said those lists omit opposition supporters' names but include deceased Azeris, evidence of lack of official interest in fair elections.
Government officials said polls show Mr. Aliyev's party will win a clear majority in any fair election, and say they are anxious to avoid the violence that marred the days after the president's own election in 2003.
But Ali Kerimli of the main Freedom opposition bloc told reporters in Baku yesterday that protests are already planned if the government tries to rig the vote.
"If there are massive falsifications, we will call on the people to fight, within the bounds of the constitution," Mr. Kerimli said.
Police have clashed with demonstrators in recent weeks and Mr. Mustafayev said that during a recent rally, more than 1,000 protesters were beaten and almost 500 were detained.
The government last month prevented opposition Azerbaijan Democratic Party Chairman Rasul Guliyev from returning to the country from exile in the United States.
Earlier that day, police were much in evidence on the road to the airport and taxis were stopped outside the airport, forcing passengers to walk or take a bus the rest of the way.
Military vehicles, police and armed soldiers, some with dogs, were patrolling the grounds of the airport itself.
Mr. Mustafayev called government tactics a deliberate use of "special cruelty and brutality" against protesters, and he called Mr. Aliyev's May executive order calling for improved election practices a "fig leaf."
Another opposition figure, Musavat Party Chairman Isa Gambar, said questionable elections would push Azeris to look for alternatives to the government's pro-Western policies.
Having lived through Soviet Communist rule, Azeris, who are overwhelmingly Muslim and 65 percent Shi'ite, could turn toward radical fundamentalism, he said.
An estimated several hundred Azeris at an Oct. 16 rally for Mr. Gambar, staged away from the city center, were enthusiastic and demonstrative, but peaceful. Sympathetic Western observers said the crowd was peppered with undercover police agents.
International observers have expressed growing concerns about the vote.
The head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe office here last month cited the "increasing number of violent incidents, the use of excessive and unjustified force against demonstrators, as well as questionable detentions and mass arrests."
OSCE Ambassador Maurizio Pavesi said these developments were "not in line with international election standards" or Mr. Aliyev's May 11 election decree.
The press watchdog group Reporters Without Borders has called on Mr. Aliyev to protect journalists after 14 reporters were beaten by police during attacks on demonstrators.
"The situation is rapidly deteriorating," the organization said. "Six journalists have been physically attacked in the past six months and another died as a result of his injuries."
And New York-based Human Rights Watch last week issued its own scathing critique of the pre-election climate, saying in a 30-page report that mass arrests, restrictions on campaigning and press controls "have undermined the credibility of the vote."
"People cannot vote freely in an election when the authorities are beating up opposition supporters and preventing candidates from campaigning," said Holly Cartner, the group's Europe and Central Asia director.
"Azerbaijan's history of election fraud and abuse is threatening to repeat itself."
David R. Sands in Washington contributed to this report, which was based in part on wire service reports.
Azerbaijan vows fair vote as opposition aide held
Sat Nov 5, 2005 11:43 AM ET
By Rufat Abbasov
BAKU (Reuters) - Azerbaijan's parliamentary election on Sunday will be free and fair, the head of the ruling party said on Saturday, but police kept a leading opposition party's campaign manager under arrest for a third day.
Azerbaijan has a record of flawed votes and some in the opposition say if the election for the 125-seat Milli Majlis is rigged they will mount mass protests like the peaceful uprisings that led to revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.
Azerbaijan is in a region criss-crossed with smoldering separatist conflicts. Western governments are anxious for stability, especially with a B.P.-led pipeline to start pumping Azeri oil to world markets from next year.
Faramaz Javadov, campaign manager for the Democratic Party, was arrested in a raid on the party's election headquarters on Thursday evening. The Democratic Party is one of a trio that make up the Azadlyq bloc, the main opposition force.
"(This) means the authorities are already preparing to falsify the election results," said party spokesman Nureddin Ismailov. "This is their method of trying to scare our supporters and exclude them from the election."
The head of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) -- which polls suggest will renew its massive majority in parliament -- said in an interview the opposition was complaining of a rigged vote before a ballot had been cast.
"We are all doing everything in our power so that the election in Azerbaijan is transparent and democratic," YAP Executive Secretary Ali Ahmedov told Reuters.
He said a last-minute package of anti-fraud measures approved by President Ilham Aliyev, including spraying invisible ink on voters' fingers to stop them voting twice, underlined the country's commitment to democracy.
"Stability in Azerbaijan is very important but having democratic elections is important too. We think the two are closely linked. Transparent, democratic elections will be an additional factor strengthening stability," Ahmedov said.
An Interior Ministry spokesman said Democratic Party campaign manager Javadov was arrested when police were searching his offices after a tip-off about illegal weapons.
"While police were going about their professional duty, Faramaz Javadov put up resistance and he was therefore arrested for obstructing police. He is in detention," said the spokesman.
A campaign manager for the National Front Party, also in the Azadlyq opposition bloc, was arrested on Friday but the party said he had since been released.
Sunday, 06 November 2005
Azerbaijani Opposition Claims Voting Irregularities
Baku, 6 November 2005 (RFE/RL) -- In Azerbaijan today, some 4.7 million registered voters are choosing from among 1,500 candidates vying for seats in the country's national parliament.
With three hours left before the polling stations close (7 p.m. local time), Azadliq (Freedom), the main opposition alliance, is already claiming widespread irregularities.
Azadliq election campaign head Panah Huseyn said nearly 6,000 violations had been registered by midday. He claimed that election workers at some polling stations were marking voters' fingers with washable, rather than indelible, ink. He also reported alleged cases in which opposition election observers were denied access to polling stations.
Huseyn's claims could not be independently verified.
Some 1,600 foreign and 17,000 Azerbaijani election observers are monitoring the polls. Their preliminary conclusions are not expected until late tonight.
Isa Qambar, head of Azadliq's Musavat party, said opposition leaders will carefully analyze the outcome of today's vote before deciding on their next step.
"Today, we will observe very closely what happens," Qambar said. "Tomorrow we will study, summarize, and analyze the outcome of the vote. Depending on our findings, we will then specify our [next] decisions, tactics, and slogans."
Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission says nearly 32 percent of voters had cast their ballots by 3 p.m., local time.
(RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service/turan.az)
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