BIRD FLU: DEVELOPMENTS & MEASURES

Someone should tell those birds about borders!

But seriously what can governments do to prepare us all, I wonder? Obviously it's going to happen & it's going to be big.

Someone should tell those birds about borders!

But seriously what can governments do to prepare us all, I wonder? Obviously it's going to happen & it's going to be big.

Oh, well, iimagine they will talk about handwashing etc when it strikes.

Since, however, doctors and nurses in hospitals regularly spread infection by not doing just that, despite knowledge and constant reminders, dunno how much good it will do.



But I will read Hamburger's article!

I was thinking along the lines of preparing ordinary people for what we might expect, some idea how will this be managed when it happens. So far the only other measures I've heard of here is that the Oz government is considering banning bird imports (how much difference that will make is highly questionable) & that scientists are working on a vaccine. Apart from stock piling vaccine, what other measures are being taken by governments? Which folk are the most vulnerable: young? Elderly? Folk with lung disease? How should these people prepare themselves so as to minimise the risk? More information along that line could be useful. In Oz the government has spent over $15 million on advertising for the planned "IR reforms" in recent weeks, we're in the process of developing new "anti-terrorist" laws, we've even simulated a terrorist attack in Victoria so as to be prepared for the possibility. All I'm saying is that I'd like to see more evidence of as much advance thinking & planning & educating well before the Avian flu outbreak.

Oh, now there I agree.

I suspect, though, that a good part of it is that there is not a huge amount to be done.




Also, panicking folk about bird flu has no political value, whereas panicking us about terror does.

I hope you're right about most of the work being done already.

Panicking folk about bird flu can be a marvellous distraction from the government's other pressing woes, though! :wink:

Sorry, Deb, I don't think I made myself clear, earlier on! It was sort of what I was trying to say, but was messing it up, I guess.

Ah, well at least there's some movement! It'll be interesting to see what's presented to the public after this. The same sort of publicity campaign as the current IR "information" one?:

.... A two-day operation at the end of November, involving state and federal agencies, would test public health authorities, hospital systems and anything else that might be needed if there was an outbreak, Mr Howard said.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/no-need-for-extra-bird-flu-funds-says-howard/2005/10/23/1130005993658.html

Sydney Morning Herald Q & A article published today:

The big questions
October 22, 2005/SMH


Why are experts so worried?

Viral outbreaks in animals are common, but the H5N1 bird flu virus causes serious disease in birds and has infected cats and other animals, and spreads rapidly. Although it has so far infected relatively few humans, the death rate has been high.

What is the chance that bird flu will become a human pandemic?

Most experts believe the risk of an imminent pandemic is about one in 10 - higher than at any recent time in the recent past. For a pandemic to occur, the H5N1 virus will have to adapt to spread efficiently among people.

In a pandemic, what is the individual risk of being infected?

That is impossible to say. The virus may spread readily through droplets in the air, or it may require more direct person-to-person contact. It may remain geographically isolated or spread quickly between communities.

Who would be most vulnerable?

Typically children and the elderly are disproportionately likely to catch flu and to have it severely, but there are exceptions: the 1918 Spanish flu was most lethal to young adults.

How is it spread?

So far, only people who have been working with or living close to birds have become ill, apart from one possible person-to-person transmission. The virus does not yet appear to spread via droplets in the air, but it may be transmitted through blood or faeces.

Is it possible to have a mild version of the disease?

Blood-testing in northern Vietnam has identified mild or symptom-free cases, sometimes clustered within families. This raises fears the strain may be adapting to humans and spreading between them.

What are the symptoms?

Among human cases of H5N1, fever and cough are the most universal symptoms and pneumonia can usually be seen at X-ray. Diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain occur in about a quarter of cases. In fatal cases - half of all confirmed cases - lung failure is usually the cause. But the symptom profile is liable to change dramatically if the virus becomes an established human disease.

How is it treated?

Antiviral medicines such as Tamiflu probably help, though they may be needed in larger doses than currently recommended. An inhaled antiviral, Relenza, has not been tested yet in human H5N1.

Is it safe to eat chicken?

Poultry imports from affected countries are banned. Undercooked poultry meat from infected birds may spread infection to humans.

What's the good news?Vaccines, antivirals and intensive care should mean a good chance of survival in countries where these are available. Co-ordinated planning between government agencies, and mass communications to inform people about them, should minimise viral spread.

What would happen

Federal Government modelling predicts that if 25 per cent of the population was affected with flu - that is, a flu with a 25 per cent attack rate - and there was no immediate vaccine or treatment available, in six to eight weeks:
- 13,000 to 44,000 people would die.

- 57,900 to 148,000 would be in hospital.

- 2.6 million to 7.5 million would visit outpatient clinics.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/health/the-big-questions/2005/10/21/1129775959988.html

bird flu
this afternoon CBC-TV broadcast a 30 minute interview with...DR. DONALD LOW...,chief microbiologist with mount sinai hospital in toronto.
dr. low was the microbiologist who was involved with tackling the SARS outbreak in toronto.
i'll try to find a transcript - none available yet.
i'll try to sum up the interview as best as i can.
while dr low tried to present a calm and scientific explanation of the bird flu, it was clear to me that he was not comfortable trying to give a simple explanation to a very difficult question. he stressed that scientists are dealing with a moving target, and while they know more now that even a month ago, the scene is shifting constantly.
for the time being tamiflu seems to be the only defence available but not enough of it is being produced, and it is questioable if enough can be produced short-term.
to use an example : if an outbrek were to last 100 days, one would have to take one tablet a day from the day one becomes aware of the outbreak - i.e. before becoming infected - and continue until the end of the outbreak - assuming the "bug" does not become resistant.
a vaccine would present the best long-term protection, but none is yet available. dr low did not think it possible to state, how long it would take to develop a vaccine.
so, let's hope the "bug" won't mutate to allow person-to-person transmisssion - at least not until a vaccine is available. hbg

from CBC-NEWS :...AVIAN INFLUENZA : FAQ...

New news and it's not good:

Sunday, October 23, 2005 - Page updated at 02:37 PM (PDT)

Britain says flu strain that killed parrot is deadly H5N1 strain

"The British government said today that a strain of bird flu that killed a parrot in quarantine is the deadly H5N1 strain that has plagued Asia and recently spread to Europe.

"Scientists determined that the parrot, imported from South America, died of the strain of avian flu that has devastated poultry stocks and killed 61 people in Asia the past two years, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs...."

Moir, cartoonist from the Sydney Morning Herald (Oz) & his comment on Avian flu & government priorities:

A hot subject for Oz cartoonists at the moment:

Indonesia fears Bali bird flu outbreak
October 27, 2005 - 7:34PM/SMH

Indonesia is investigating whether bird flu has broken out on Australia's doorstep after dozens of chickens dropped dead on the island of Bali.

Anxious Indonesian officials are awaiting test results that could take days.

More than 25 birds have died in Padang Sambian, a village on the outskirts of the Bali's capital, Denpasar.

Nyoman Dibya, an official at the Bali livestock agency, said the chickens had the clinical symptoms of the H5N1 strain of the virus that has decimated poultry stocks across the sprawling archipelago.

Bird flu has also jumped to humans, killing four people in Indonesia and sickening three.

Experts around the world fear the flu strain might mutate to spread easily from human to human and become a pandemic.

"A full laboratory test is needed to accurately determine if the birds had the deadly virus," said Dibya, adding that could take another week.

If it turns out they did, agriculture and health officials will have to take "firm action" to prevent the disease from spreading across the resort island, Dibya said. ... <cont>

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Indonesia-fears-Bali-bird-flu-outbreak/2005/10/27/1130400303647.html

Those comics are really funny.

This thing doesn't scare me yet, but if it ever makes the jump to humans I'm runnin for the hills.

Welcome to A2K, Bodo.

Those hills could become awfully crowded! :wink:

Glad you enjoyed the comic commentary.

Thanks! And true enough, I suppose.

Guess there's really not much to be done besides make sure I'm as hale and healthy as I can be in the case that it ever hits, and hope I survive should I catch the bugger.

just like the Spanish flu evolved into a less lethal form (it actually doesnt help a virus to kill its host since viruses cant live without a living host), they do expect that once the avian flu evolves a human to human specific, then itll start evolving itself to become less lethal, (However, it may take many lives lost before that happnens)

The people most at risk in this case are those with the really healthy immune systems , since , like the spanish flu where most of those killed were the young and healthy, the flu makes the persons immune system work against itself almost like a toxin.

That's very interesting, farmerman. I would have thought it would be the opposite.

yeh, me too. I heard this epidemiologist at a U seminar the other day. He had data from the Spanish flu of the 1918 era and showed that , from studies made on exhumed remains, they were able to determine that the acute systemic failures that killed those victims were from heavy immunoresponses.
I have now exhausted my fund of knowledge on the subject and would have to go find the epidemiologist from the med school to further ask why.

Since Im not teaching this semester, I get to school only when I need to use the labs or, for meetings.

The point about the evolution into a much less lethal strain stands to reason, since most of those killed , also kill the virus, so the virus has no way to spread itself. So by mutating into lesser lethality, the virus blindly helps itself remain viable and it keeps a steady stream of hosts. (Once a host gets the Spanish flu, they are immune to further infection from that same strain, so evolve or go extinct is strongly the issue)

Geez, scary to think of all our little kids at risk. I know that in my family there were children who died around the time of the flu epidemic. Whether or not it was from that disease, I dunno. We always assumed it was.

I heard about the "Dog Flu" yesterday but I don't think it is related to the bird flu.


That parrot cartoon is funny!