Putin's war

@Walter Hinteler,

Walter Hinteler wrote:

Looking back to the age of nuclear deterrence in the last century: nuclear weapons were the "fuel of the Cold War".

In Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Kissinger attempted (in 1957) to sell the idea that a limited nuclear war is a plausible outcome of a crisis between two nuclear armed states.
Perhaps this is Putin's idea, too.

About a decade ago I attended a talk given by Kissinger (and a large group conversation that followed) in which the subject of that well-known paper came up. Kissinger said that he wrote it as a strategic/academic exercise, but later found it to be a very useful & detectable (to the USSR) element of his record in his service as National Security advisor, and later as Secretary of State. (I had the strong impression that by 1975, with the proximate deployment of mobile ballistic missiles he no longer believed it was a realistic outcome.)
I can't help but think that Putin understands this as well, though history confirms that national leaders, in the face of adversity and serious setbacks sometimes do irrational things. That is the issue we face now.

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@georgeob1,

I think the idea of a "limited nuclear war" was much more popular in the 60's and 70's and we certainly carried tactical nukes and discussed "suitcase" nukes into the 80's, but I think today we are all a lot more interrelated. A nuke dropped in anything but extreme self defense would make every power in the world your enemy, not just in terms of sanctions but in every way possible. If Russia used a nuclear weapon outside of their territory, cruise missiles would be hitting Moscow. I can't see Putin actually using a nuke.

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@engineer,

Whispers and hints online and via news speakers that Putin may be suffering from a mental decline of some sort.

…raising the possibility that he may do now what he may not have done previously.

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@Lash,

Our military was ready to resist if Trump tried it. I would hope Russia has a few generals with the same mindset.

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In all of this the unexpected (certainly by me) reversals of previous policies and practices among the European NATO powers, following, as they did, so soon after the, also unexpected, strength of the Ukrainian resistance (and Russian military errors & miscalculations), appear to have made all the difference in this matter. We still have to find our collective way out of the current situation, and many potential pitfalls remain ahead : however our worst fears are likely proved wrong. Let's all hope that the Ukrainian people emerge from this with their liberty & freedom intact and, as little destruction and suffering as remains possible; - and that the newfound unity among the NATO states remains strong

Much of the remaining difficulty now remains in Putin's hands. What will come out of the forthcoming negotiations near the Ukraine - Belarus border? (it appears the Ukrainians will surely not now surrender their freedom and independence). Will Putin double down on military actions and the destruction it entails? How will the Russian Public react, and what instability may follow?

Very interesting times indeed.

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engineer wrote:

If Russia used a nuclear weapon outside of their territory, cruise missiles would be hitting Moscow. I can't see Putin actually using a nuke.

"Lash" wrote:

Whispers and hints online and via news speakers that Putin may be suffering from a mental decline of some sort.

…raising the possibility that he may do now what he may not have done previously.

Either suggestion might occur. That's the central issue now

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@georgeob1,

The trick is to give Putin an off ramp, and right now he doesn't have one. He assumed victory with no intermediate position he can fall back to.

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@engineer,

I believe that , either way Putin should not be allowed any authority or agreed-on control over Ukraine. I'm confident that is also the aim of the Ukrainian President. This point should most certainly not be a part of any face-saving gambit for Putin.

I suspect (and hope) ) that the newfound motivation and perhaps morale of the EU nations involved with the success to which they have contributed so much, will likely support that proposition as well.

Putin lost his ill-conceived venture into Ukraine almost to the same degree as the courageous resistance of the Ukrainian people won it. Neither should escape or be deprived of his just deserts.

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@georgeob1,

Agreed. I'm thinking something like a return to the Minsk accords, Ukraine states that they have no intention of joining NATO, Russia forgives Ukrainian debt in order to facilitate the rebuilding effort and help the Ukrainian economy, maybe Germany approves Nord Stream 2 which they want to do anyway, Russian troops leave Ukrainian territory including the breakaway provinces.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

I believe that , either way Putin should not be allowed any authority or agreed-on control over Ukraine. I'm confident that is also the aim of the Ukrainian President. This point should most certainly not be a part of any face-saving gambit for Putin.

I suspect (and hope) ) that the newfound motivation and perhaps morale of the EU nations involved with the success to which they have contributed so much, will likely support that proposition as well.

Putin lost his ill-conceived venture into Ukraine almost to the same degree as the courageous resistance of the Ukrainian people won it. Neither should escape or be deprived of his just deserts.

Agreed. And compensation must be paid to Ukraine for this ill-thought out, ill-advised and unprovoked aggression.

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Explain why this DEFCON system says we’re at Level 2. Am I seeing this wrong?
https://www.defconlevel.com/news-alerts.php

Defcon Level Warning System
Private OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) Analysis Organization
2-27-2022 | 11:33 pm UTC
Overall Current Defcon Level Assessment Today: 2 (Two) - Raised Alerts Taken from Defcon Level Warning System: https://www.defconlevel.com/news-alerts.php

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@Lash,

My guess is to avoid further escalation. My guess is also that the military is fully up to speed on what is going on.

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Interesting discussion on Russian strategy. The takeaway is Russia is playing nice but has a lot on room to escalate. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

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As much as I love romantic tales and have empathy with the suffering Ukrainian people this all shebang is a nut case...

A bankrupted Russia with a potential coup D'etat is good for no one, and I rather have a smart KGB fox in the Kremlin then a bankrupt nation ruled by a drunken tug supported by China!

Europe will now be weaker, prices will rise and Ukraine will be in the exact same situation it was before!

As for Russia, those who matter, the intellectual elite, not only the Oligarchs which by the way are as corrupt as our own oligarchs, well they won't ever forget the humiliation they suffered in the past 48 hours when we let social media Facebook Twitter and what not rule the world on a hype train that Washington let loose!

I say "you guys" are high on Cocaine...and I say more still, no matter the outcome peaceful or not, the world just become a much more dangerous place 4 days ago, if from now on, we are to do Geo-Political strategy on the web!

Classical institutions be damned, street politics now rules the world...

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https://duedissidence.com/2022/02/25/in-a-duel-of-dying-empires-could-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-have-been-prevented/
This essay is worth considering - the last half.

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@Albuquerque,

It sounds like you are saying that in order to have peace at any cost we must appease Russia and allow them to conquer what countries they please. I think England had much the same strategy going into World War 2. That didn't work out well.

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@engineer,

No no no...if we hadn't dangled the NATO carrot on the idiotic "hero" actor, a puppet of the West in Ukraine, that is now the true cause of Ukrainian peoples suffering because he is dumb as a brick, no invasion would have ever happened!

Why would Putin shot himself in the foot if he was not cornered???

...I am sorry to say man but loose the weed is bad for thinking straight!

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@Mame,

Mame wrote:

Are you talking about this:

Yes indeed !here's more in as yet unpublished House intelligence committee material obtained from the executive Department under FOIA requests.

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@Mame,

Mame wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

I believe that , either way Putin should not be allowed any authority or agreed-on control over Ukraine. I'm confident that is also the aim of the Ukrainian President. This point should most certainly not be a part of any face-saving gambit for Putin.
Putin lost his ill-conceived venture into Ukraine almost to the same degree as the courageous resistance of the Ukrainian people won it. Neither should escape or be deprived of his just deserts.

Agreed. And compensation must be paid to Ukraine for this ill-thought out, ill-advised and unprovoked aggression.

That one might be tough for Putin to swallow in the early phases of any settlement, but I fully agree it should be pursued, though perhaps in a second process. It will likely also be to the advantage of the NATO states to contribute to that effort (though that may further infuriate ole Vladimir).

For the short term the priority should be on preserving Ukraine's independence, and getting the Russian forces out of the country. Those are the key objectives for the negotiations ahead. Let's hope they are successful.

I've read some unsubstantiated reports indicating that Putin is unwell physically, though I don't know of any basis for them. His recent decision-making certainly suggests to me that something may have changed in this formerly careful and calculating leader Interesting.

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