4
   

The real measure of a real economy ...

 
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 11:35 am
@bobsal u1553115,
Thank you Bobsal.

1. I agree that income disparity is an important economic measure. Valid economic metrics of income distribution are valuable and should be discussed. Personally, I support social policy to decrease income disparity (with caveats based on the specific policies).

2. Income disparity is not the only measure.

3. Americans, as a whole, have a better standard of living than 45 years ago. This is part of Americans getting a benefit from productivity. Government Social spending has also increased sharply in the past 45 years.

Reality is complex. This RAND study tells one part of the story. But it misses the ways that middle class America has been gaining ground.
bobsal u1553115
 
  -3  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 11:43 am
@maxdancona,
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-middle-class-is-shrinking-2019-04-12

Why the middle class is shrinking

Published: April 22, 2019 at 5:59 a.m. ET
By Brett Arends


Fewer millennials in 2019 are middle class compared to baby boomers when they were in their 20s

The middle class is shrinking, stagnating, and becoming less secure, even as the world enters the 10th year of economic growth and the U.S. experiences a decade-long bull market.

If you want to understand the surge in angry politics around the developed world, from President Trump’s populist politics to the U.K.’s Brexit to France’s “yellow-vest” protesters, look no further than the economic plight of the middle class.

The middle class is shrinking, stagnating, and becoming less secure, even as the world enters the 10th year of economic growth and the U.S. experiences a decade-long bull market, according to a report, “Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class,” released this month by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development.

The middle classes are getting squeezed particularly hard by the rising costs of education, health care and housing.

Real, disposable incomes for the middle class have not grown since the middle of last decade, while incomes for the top 10% are hitting new highs, the OECD calculates. This isn’t how it always works. In the previous decade, from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, median real disposable incomes rose by about 17% in richer countries.

The middle classes are getting squeezed particularly hard by the rising costs of education, health care and housing, the OECD writes. College fees are up, in the U.S. and elsewhere. Homes are much more expensive relative to incomes.

Meanwhile, technology and global competition are destroying many middle class careers, it adds. Higher skills are no longer passports to good jobs and incomes, it says. “Middle-skill workers are now more likely to be in the lower-income class and less likely to be middle income,” it says. “Highly skilled workers are also less likely to make it to the higher-income class.”

The “middle class,” counted as people earning between 75% and 200% of the median income in each country, has shrunk since the mid 1980s from 64% to 60% of the population of richer countries.

About 70% of baby boomers were already middle-class in their 20s, says the OECD. The figure today for millennials: 60%. And downward mobility — the risk of losing your middle-class lifestyle and ending up poor — is a rising concern.


‘Middle-skill workers are now more likely to be in the lower-income class and less likely to be middle income.’
— —OECD report, ‘Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class’

Today, according to the OECD, 14% of those in the middle-income brackets in their country are likely to fall into the bottom fifth in any given four-year period. One in six or 17% of middle-income jobs face a “high risk” of automation, and already more than one-fifth of middle-income households are borrowing to make ends meet.

“Many middle-income households face a considerable risk of sliding down into the lower-income class,’ the OECD writes. “These risks have increased over the past two decades in many OECD countries.”



The percentage of people in lower- and upper-income households has, meanwhile, crept higher over the same period. “While the size of the nation’s middle class remained relatively stable, financial gains for middle-income Americans during this period were modest compared with those of higher-income households,” Pew senior researcher Rakesh Kochhar wrote.

“The recent stability in the share of adults living in middle-income households marks a shift from a decades-long downward trend,” he added. “From 1971 to 2011, the share of adults in the middle class fell by 10 percentage points. But that shift was not all down the economic ladder.”



"Low unemployment, high GDP = smaller middle class, larger poor class, less spending on social spending," in a Trump economy.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 11:57 am
@bobsal u1553115,
My understanding is that the people who are losing out (i.e. dropping out of the middle class) are Hispanic men with no college degrees.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2015/12/ST_2015-12-09_middle-class-06.png

I find it interesting that Black people have been making progress (this is rate of change... not a measure of fairness). And, Women have been making progress.
coldjoint
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 12:02 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Quote:
Why the middle class is shrinking

Because small business is being chocked to death by the riots in our big cities. And Blue state taxes and regulations are a killer of any profit they can use to expand and create jobs. Democrats want a nation of government dependent people. It will give them the power to place each group by identity which promotes division. And division will ensure they stay in power by using the minority of choice to do their dirty work when and where it is needed.

They have only one concern, power, and a strong middle class will only be in their way. So anything they can do to destroy it will be done.
maxdancona
 
  2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 12:23 pm
@coldjoint,
That is a partisan narrative coldjoint. It isn't backed by data.

For this to be true you would see a increase in the size and wealth of the middle class any time there are no riots (i.e. most of the time) and any time the Republicans are in control.

The facts don't back your ideological narrative at all.
coldjoint
 
  3  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 12:54 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

That is a partisan narrative coldjoint. It isn't backed by data.

For this to be true you would see a increase in the size and wealth of the middle class any time there are no riots (i.e. most of the time) and any time the Republicans are in control.

The facts don't back your ideological narrative at all.

Obama killed small business with endless regulations and taxes. The riots are doing the same thing and data on businesses shutting their doors forever does back up what I say.
maxdancona
 
  2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 01:00 pm
@coldjoint,
Quote:
The riots are doing the same thing and data on businesses shutting their doors forever does back up what I say.


Except that most businesses that are shutting their doors forever are no where near riots. Do you even care about facts? I feel like I am wasting my time.
bobsal u1553115
 
  -2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 01:54 pm
@maxdancona,
Less than 3% of the population has the much effect on the middle class.

Whoda thunk?

You're using the wrong statistics.
bobsal u1553115
 
  -2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 01:59 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
That is a partisan narrative coldjoint.


Worse than that. He implies that small businesses offer wages and benefits that industries like auto, steel, airlines etc. offer. And that's just plain untrue. I'm much more likely to enter the middle class from Ford than I am from Burger King.

But like he wrote earlier today, he doesn't document because these are his opinions and he's under no obligation to prove them to anyone.

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-4751#post-7058389

oralloy
-3
Reply
report
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 10:18 am
@RABEL222,
I've never treated my opinions as facts, and you cannot provide any examples of me ever having done such a thing.

Opinions are neither right nor wrong, by the way, as they are opinions.

0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  -2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 02:01 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
Do you even care about facts? I feel like I am wasting my time.


Welcome to our world. Ignore him.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 02:36 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
I don't want to be in either "world". I want to look at the actual facts and data.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 02:40 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:

Less than 3% of the population has the much effect on the middle class.

Whoda thunk?

You're using the wrong statistics.


What are you talking about Bobsal? These are changes to the "income status" of different groups. There is no mention of "3% of the population".

They are only "wrong statistics" if you are trying to make an ideological point. Otherwise, they are just statistics.
bobsal u1553115
 
  -3  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 02:48 pm
@maxdancona,
Hispanic males actually make up less 3% of the population of which I doubt 50% were ever middle class. My point is that the subset "middle class Hispanic males" isn't large enough to skew the whole set "middle class Americans"

The middle class is in a 10 year erosion. I do not believe its a freak result of the impact of purely downwardly mobile Hispanic middle class males.

You may be right but I don't think your statistics show that.
coldjoint
 
  4  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 05:11 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Quote:
The riots are doing the same thing and data on businesses shutting their doors forever does back up what I say.


Except that most businesses that are shutting their doors forever are no where near riots. Do you even care about facts? I feel like I am wasting my time.


So I am saying the riots have permanently killed some businesses. That is a fact.
Quote:
I feel like I am wasting my time.

You should, but that is not my fault.
maxdancona
 
  2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:00 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
bobsal u1553115 wrote:

Hispanic males actually make up less 3% of the population of which I doubt 50% were ever middle class. My point is that the subset "middle class Hispanic males" isn't large enough to skew the whole set "middle class Americans"

The middle class is in a 10 year erosion. I do not believe its a freak result of the impact of purely downwardly mobile Hispanic middle class males.

You may be right but I don't think your statistics show that.


I concede the point about Hispanic males. But there are demographic groups in the middle class that are gaining ground.
maxdancona
 
  3  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:06 pm
@coldjoint,
And cockroach infestations have also permanently killed some business. This is also a fact.

What is your point?
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  0  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:10 pm
@maxdancona,
I like the figures I posted above. I certainly don't want to trust statistics you've just said to ignore. I really think its a matter of getting statistic that record the growth/shrinkage of the middle class in both % of growth/shrinkage and the cold number each year. I wonder how many people a percentage decrease means don't get to eat or sleep in bed.

I like my stuff but I am interested in your stuff - lets just get both of us on the same standards.
maxdancona
 
  2  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:17 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Don't confuse facts and opinions. A fact is something that can be objectively disproven. If you are going to state something is a fact, you should be able to tell me under what condition you will admit that it is incorrect.

I don't think I have said to ignore the statistics.

A narrative is not a fact.... it is an opinion. It is a story you are telling. There is nothing wrong with having an opinion, but your narrative can not be tested, no matter what facts anyone else brings up, you are going to hold onto your narrative.

It is pretty easy to tell a competing political narrative, and have it just as fact-based as your narrative.

It all depends on what your opinion is. You can always find facts to support it.

bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:38 pm
@maxdancona,
Well that makes this easy: I believe the numbers I've provided show a continuing decrease in the numbers of middle class, a large jump in the poverty rates, a very mild jump in the upper class. While GNP has grown and employment is up, there's millions of unemployed, underemployed, uninsured, underpaid who's boats have not risen by tide that raised the wealth in trillions if value for less than 10% of population. And there is NO way social program spending went up in a Trump WH.

I'll be glad to read the summary of your opinion and I guess we're done here.
coldjoint
 
  1  
Tue 15 Sep, 2020 06:53 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Quote:
The US’s record low poverty in 2019 is too good to be true

So where are some facts on
Quote:
a large jump in the poverty rates,
and did you notice how Trump lowered that number.
https://qz.com/1903798/2019-us-poverty-rate-hits-lowest-level-in-60-years/
0 Replies
 
 

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